The Race for a Playoff Spot

[Ludiculous]

So I figured we could start a thread to keep track of our position out in the west and see what games were going on that day or week that could potentially affect our positioning. Mostly watching the Suns, Spurs, and Thunder.

The Current Standings for the West:

1. Golden State 36 - 6
2. Memphis 32 - 12
3. Portland 32 - 13
4. Clippers 31 - 14
5. Houston 31 - 14
6. Dallas 30 - 15
7. San Antonio 29 - 17
8. Phoenix 26 - 20

9. Pelicans 24 - 21
10. Thunder 23 -22

Currently we are a game and half behind the Suns for the 8th seed with Thunder right on our tails being 2 and half games behind the Suns.

The Thunder played last night and beat the Timberwolves without KD.

The only a game that could really affect us tonight is the Memphis Dallas game. Ideally we want Memphis to win so we could potentially overtake Dallas as well.

[UNO Gracias]

Question about the Suns. I know that the majority of the board believe that God willing we will overtake them due to our SOS vs their SOS. My question is this, they have a lot of trade pieces (one being their guard rotation). If they move one of those guards for a position of need, would you still be more favorable of our chances, or would breaking up their group hurt them enough from a cohesiveness standpoint to overcome?

[BlueJay]

Another way to look at it is we need to win @ 70% of the game the rest of the way, that will get you 49 wins. The will be the min for 8 seed.

[Taker597]

I have a feeling that we will get that 8th seed and then lose in our last stretch of the season. it is brutal and mostly away games if I recall correctly.

[moon54]

The race is surely for the 8th spot , the other spots will be filled with teams on current standings . Despite all their struggles , I think OKC will win the race , they're just better than phoenix . Nola will have a winning record , a number between 41 and 45 and that won't be enough for playoffs .

[luckyman]

Pelicans are also 17-11 against the west. Phoenix is 13-14 and okc 12-15.

That is a good place to be right now, but any team is capable of a long win streak or losing streak. We do not know what the magic number for the playoffs are right now. Could take 51 wins or 47.

[Pelicantoo]

Pelicans are also 17-11 against the west. Phoenix is 13-14 and okc 12-15.

That is a good place to be right now, but any team is capable of a long win streak or losing streak. We do not know what the magic number for the playoffs are right now. Could take 51 wins or 47.

Whelp, the best non-playoff teams ever finished with 48 wins. And that only happened twice in history.

In the past 10 years, 1 win better than the 9th seed in the west:

49 wins
44 wins
**Lockout**
44 wins
43 wins
47 wins
49 wins
41 wins
42 wins
45 wins
43 wins

Avg: 44.7 wins

We're currently on pace for 43.73 wins
If we extrapolate our January win% for the rest of the season, we're on pace for 46.77 wins

Based on our injury issues and personnel upgrades, I would predict 47 wins, it'll be close.

[Alvis]

Question about the Suns. I know that the majority of the board believe that God willing we will overtake them due to our SOS vs their SOS.

It has nothing to do with SOS, it's just that the majority of the board hope for us to get in the playoffs and that just can't happen if we don't overtake the Suns. So people don't really care why it should happen, it just has to wether they get a trade or not. Now wether a trade can strenghen them or not, it all depends on the trade, the fit and the chemistry afterwards but honestly I don't think they will pull it before the deadline.

The race is surely for the 8th spot , the other spots will be filled with teams on current standings . Despite all their struggles , I think OKC will win the race , they're just better than phoenix . Nola will have a winning record , a number between 41 and 45 and that won't be enough for playoffs .

True and wrong. Whatever happens to get in the playoff we need to :
- Overtake Phoenix
- Stay ahead of OKC or beat one of those other teams.

Obviously, there is no way we can beat one of those teams if they keep their pace so one must fall (which is far from impossible to happen).

In the past 10 years, 1 win better than the 9th seed in the west:
[...]

1 win better than the 9th seed in the west does not get you in the playoff but on the 9th seed in the west ... that's not our objective.
Truthfully, I don't think looking at the past will help here though. As said above, it will be more about beating a couple teams to it than getting to a magical number. Right now, nobody can say if OKC will finish with 45 or 50+ wins. What we know though is that they are capable of getting to 50 wins even with a few more bumps and that 7 other teams are easily on pace to 50+ Wins.
Right now, it seems that getting their is a bit unrealistic for this team but everything can happen I guess.

[Pelicantoo]

1 win better than the 9th seed in the west does not get you in the playoff but on the 9th seed in the west ... that's not our objective.
Truthfully, I don't think looking at the past will help here though. As said above, it will be more about beating a couple teams to it than getting to a magical number. Right now, nobody can say if OKC will finish with 45 or 50+ wins. What we know though is that they are capable of getting to 50 wins even with a few more bumps and that 7 other teams are easily on pace to 50+ Wins.
Right now, it seems that getting their is a bit unrealistic for this team but everything can happen I guess.

But it does. The numbers get skewed when you look at the records of the 8th seed. For instance, in 09-10, the Thunder won 50 games and got the 8th spot. BUT, they would've only needed 43 wins to beat out the lowly Rockets in the 9th spot.

I'm not suggesting that historical data is going to predict what happens. But, people like to use the "magic number" theory a lot, and there's a lot of incorrect hyperbole surrounding it.

[Pelicantoo]

1 win better than the 9th seed in the west does not get you in the playoff but on the 9th seed in the west ... that's not our objective.
Truthfully, I don't think looking at the past will help here though. As said above, it will be more about beating a couple teams to it than getting to a magical number. Right now, nobody can say if OKC will finish with 45 or 50+ wins. What we know though is that they are capable of getting to 50 wins even with a few more bumps and that 7 other teams are easily on pace to 50+ Wins.
Right now, it seems that getting their is a bit unrealistic for this team but everything can happen I guess.

But it does. The numbers get skewed when you look at the records of the 8th seed. For instance, in 09-10, the Thunder won 50 games and got the 8th spot. BUT, they would've only needed 43 wins to beat out the lowly Rockets in the 9th spot.

I'm not suggesting that historical data is going to predict what happens. But, people like to use the "magic number" theory a lot, and there's a lot of incorrect hyperbole surrounding it.

[Alvis]

The thunders needed 43 wins to get to the 8th spot but the rockets would have needed 51 wins.
The question is, are we the thunders or the rockets right now?

As I said, we need to beat those teams to get to the 8th spots, which means since we are not in the top 8 that we need to beat the team that is ranked 8th not 9th.

[Pelicantoo]

The thunders needed 43 wins to get to the 8th spot but the rockets would have needed 51 wins.
The question is, are we the thunders or the rockets right now?

As I said, we need to beat those teams to get to the 8th spots, which means since we are not in the top 8 that we need to beat the team that is ranked 8th not 9th.

you're right, and I'm dumb. I guess that lends itself to your point that neither total is actually relevant..

[Ludiculous]

Got a pretty full night tonight. Some games to keep an eye on.

Dallas @ Houston. Dallas is on the second night of a back to back after a loss to the grizzlies last night.

CHA @ SAS No Kemba. Let's hope Brian Roberts can step up

OKC @ NYK hopefully Melo plays and the have some what of a shot.

And the big one.
WAS @ PHX.

[moon54]

I'm telling you if he wasn't for hornacek , phx would never be in this race . He's the main reason this system works . I wish only he were our coach ...

[Ludiculous]

So we kind of blew a big opportunity last game against Denver. Could have been worse. The Thunder ended up losing to the Knicks and are still a game behind us.

Tonight is going to be really hard especially if AD is a no go but we have a pretty big opportunity Phoneix plays Chicago tonight. The same Chicago that just ended the Warriors home game streak.

Dallas also plays in Miami.

[BlueJay]

Good way to finish Jan, last night HOU/OKC/POR/SAS/PHX all lost.

Injury bug starting to pop up with HOU/POR/MEM, if we can finish 70% the rest of the way we may even catch 7th seed.

1. Golden State 37 - 8
2. Memphis 35 - 12 VC out for the season
3. Clippers 33 - 15
4. Portland 32 - 16 Aldridge hurt, Lopez still out
5. Houston 33 - 15 Howard out few weeks
6. Dallas 32 - 17
7. San Antonio 30 - 18
8. Phoenix 28 - 21

9. Pelicans 25 - 22
10. Thunder 23 -24

[saintsinNO]

I have a feeling that Sixers loss and the Knicks loss are going to hurt very badly at the end of the year.

[42]

I have a feeling al the losses hurt.

Stay healthy, play hard.

[saintsinNO]

I have a feeling al the losses hurt.

Stay healthy, play hard.

Not all loses hurt the same and when you finish 2 games out of a playoff spot and can point to losing two games against absolutely awful teams, those hurt more.

If you're a playoff team, no win should be a surprise, but a loss to a sub .200 team should be.

[MichaelMcNamara]

Such a focus on the games we "Should have won" but don't you think the Raps feel the same way about the game we won that we shouldn't have? The Clips. The win at OKC. I am sure that Grizzlies fans think that it is a fluke that we went 10-20 from three against their defense and put up 106.

I don't see a point in looking back at the "games you should have won" if we miss the playoffs by a game or two unless you also look back at some you could have lost and acknowledge you could have missed the playoffs by a lot more.

[saintsinNO]

Such a focus on the games we "Should have won" but don't you think the Raps feel the same way about the game we won that we shouldn't have? The Clips. The win at OKC. I am sure that Grizzlies fans think that it is a fluke that we went 10-20 from three against their defense and put up 106.

I don't see a point in looking back at the "games you should have won" if we miss the playoffs by a game or two unless you also look back at some you could have lost and acknowledge you could have missed the playoffs by a lot more.

That's not how the team will look at it. No team with a winning mentality will ever say "oh well we did what we could and got close." They will remember that they had two layup games in a week and let both get away. Again, if you're a playoff team, no win should be a surprise, but a loss to a sub .200 team should be.

[MichaelMcNamara]

That's not how the team will look at it. No team with a winning mentality will ever say "oh well we did what we could and got close." They will remember that they had two layup games in a week and let both get away. Again, if you're a playoff team, no win should be a surprise, but a loss to a sub .200 team should be.

Who was talking about the team? I was talking about us. Every athlete should believe they should win every game, even Sixers players.

I am talking about the convenient memories that happen with observers. If we want to get mad about the Pels not making the playoffs, of course we can point to one or two games and complain about them, but we don't do the opposite. If we make it, nobody will say, "You know, we should have missed it but Monty did some great coaching in that Toronto game short handed."

I love all opinions, I just really appreciate consistency and whenever this topic comes up of "should win games" people could point to a bunch of them, but nobody ever points to should have lost games.

[saintsinNO]

Who was talking about the team? I was talking about us. Every athlete should believe they should win every game, even Sixers players.

I am talking about the convenient memories that happen with observers. If we want to get mad about the Pels not making the playoffs, of course we can point to one or two games and complain about them, but we don't do the opposite. If we make it, nobody will say, "You know, we should have missed it but Monty did some great coaching in that Toronto game short handed."

I love all opinions, I just really appreciate consistency and whenever this topic comes up of "should win games" people could point to a bunch of them, but nobody ever points to should have lost games.

I didn't say anything about Monty so not quite sure what you are referring to. We have, at the very least, the third best player in the game, we 'shouldn't lose' any game, but we 'definitely' should win some.

I think sometimes you guys that write always like to take, at least on some level, a contrarian position to the general sentiment to show some sort of heightened knowledge. I get that you are a bit more involved into the goings-on of the team, but I don't feel anything I've said is 'inconsistent.' If you think that the magnitude of a loss to the Knicks/Sixers equals that of a win against the Raptors when we fall short a few games then I think you are wrong.

[Yanks2740]

The race is surely for the 8th spot , the other spots will be filled with teams on current standings . Despite all their struggles , I think OKC will win the race , they're just better than phoenix . Nola will have a winning record , a number between 41 and 45 and that won't be enough for playoffs .

I don't know if its accurate to call OKC "just better" at this point. Haven't exactly been lighting it up, even when healthy.

[saintsinNO]

I don't know if its accurate to call OKC "just better" at this point. Haven't exactly been lighting it up, even when healthy.

Yeah, I'm not sure what's going on with them, but something isn't clicking. Everyone has been saying it's foregone that they take the 8th, but that's been a while ago and still not there. I think the 8th seed race is wide open and possibly even the 7th. We just need to handle our business and let the chips fall.