Looking at Defensive impact from various players

[Pelicantoo]

It seems to be a big debate as to whether the defensive problems of this team are due to Monty's flawed system or due to lack of defensively capable personnel. I'm in the latter group, and I think some of the below fun facts are an interesting nugget to add to this discussion:

In the 15 games in which Dante Cunningham has gotten at least 20mins/game (eliminating the b2b in LAC when he just joined), the team is giving up an average of 99.47 ppg

In the 6 games that Babbit has played 20+ minutes this season, The pelicans gave up an average of 106.83 PPG

In the 20 Games that Austin Rivers played 20+ minutes this season, The pelicans gave up 102.55 PPG.

In the 21 games that Asik played 25+ minutes, the pelicans gave up 100.14PPG

In the 12 games Ryan Anderson played 30+ minutes, pelicans gave up 103.83ppg

In the 29 games Jrue Holiday played at least 30mins, Pelicans Gave up 100.69PPG

We're currently giving up 100.8 PPG, good for 11th worst in the league.

SO, since Babbit's 20 minutes per game regress our defense +5.03ppg
AND Rivers' 20 mins per game regress our defense + 1.75ppg

AND assuming Pondexter's numbers look a bit like cunningham's numbers, you're replacing two clear defensive liabilities with 2 players who should accelerate our defense up past our average.... I think we're in store for a significant defensive uptick.

Look for the pels to finish in the top half of the league in Pts allowed.

[HornetGuru]

let's hope so.

Qpon and Cunningham > Rivers and Babbitt

[RaisingTheBar]

Nice work Pelicantoo

[PhilJFry]

Well we are 11th worst in the league in terms on point per game given up be was also play at the 7th slowest pace in the league. So per 100 possessions we're actually the 6th worst defensive team, giving up 106 point per 100. But over the last 10 games we have only been giving up 102 points per 100 which is pretty average. So I think we're improving on that end and hopefully Pondexter will give us even more improvement.

Interesting to look at our on/off stats: http://stats.nba.com/team/#!/1610612...F_RATING&dir=1

They're not my favorite stat in the world but they're OK. The problem comes when you see things like us posting a better defensive rating with Jrue off the court because when Jrue is off the court the other teams bench is generally in, so they're not going to score as much. But it's still interesting to look at.

[Mythrol]

Those are some mighty leaps to make. Austin was playing a lot of back up PG. QPon doesn't replace him, Jimmer replaces him. Also do your numbers take into account OT games and games where the other team just gave up (last HOU game)?

How will having Gordon back in the lineup change things? If memory serves me right someone else checked it and he had a negative impact based on defensive +/-.

Point being, while I hope you are correct I'm personally still in very much a "wait and see" area as far as our defense goes.

[Caffeinedisastr]

But over the last 10 games we have only been giving up 102 points per 100 which is pretty average. So I think we're improving on that end and hopefully Pondexter will give us even more improvement.

Sorry. I had to......
your avatar....

[Mr. West]

Honestly think that getting Qpon could improve our defensive rating by himself. Having someone to throw at the Lebrons is a pretty big deal, and while Cunningham hustled he was pretty obviously outmatched and Evans just isn't big enough. Let's not even discuss when Babbitt was on them.

Also quasi-related, I remember when the word was "Rivers is a great defender!" And if you disagreed with that you just didn't watch the games. That and he shot spot up threes with the best of them. I guess we were all looking for something to prove that Rivers wasn't awful

[Drudkh]

I feel that our defense isn't as poor as we imagine, it is far from great but I believe the numbers are a bit more inflated due to the schedule we have played. Firstly I believe Qpon will help marginally on D but as someone mentioned earlier I feel babbit receiving less minutes and rivers being jettisoned from the team will make more of an impact. Looking quickly at all the 38 games we have played this season, 17 of those games were against top 10 offenses, with roughly another 10 games being against top 15 offenses.

I know this doesn't excuse our defense for how it has played this season but when only like 11 games for this entire season have been against the bottom half of offenses, maybe those poor numbers on defense are being inflated. How much it is effecting the numbers who knows but I believe this team's D isn't as bad as advertised, and with the current road trip I feel those numbers will creep down. By years end I feel like those numbers will even out and we will be 14-16th ranked team.

[nolaslim213]

I feel like Cunningham and QPon certainly give our roster a healthy injection of athleticism and defense at the 3 position, which we desperately needed. I like the duo moving forward, and I'm excited to see if QPon can hit the 3 at about a 38-40% clip. That would be perfect for us!

[Pelicantoo]

Good stuff guys, I thought this thread was just going to die.

[Pelicantoo]

Nice work Pelicantoo

Muchas Gracias compadre

[Pelicantoo]

Those are some mighty leaps to make. Austin was playing a lot of back up PG. QPon doesn't replace him, Jimmer replaces him. Also do your numbers take into account OT games and games where the other team just gave up (last HOU game)?

How will having Gordon back in the lineup change things? If memory serves me right someone else checked it and he had a negative impact based on defensive +/-.

Point being, while I hope you are correct I'm personally still in very much a "wait and see" area as far as our defense goes.

Naturally, I don't expect these things to translate directly, however I do expect the replacement of Rivers' and Babbitt's minutes with Q-pon and Cunningham (and Jimmer to some degree, in his 20+ minute games the defense doesn't look too bad.

I didn't look into Gordon, but I would assume again that given the atrocious effort by Babbit and Rivers on D that even below average defense would bump us up.

As far as the numbers go, naturally it doesn't take into account those things that you mentioned. It's funny you bring that up, because there were 2-3 games on either side that skewed the numbers. For that Houston game, I point to the 120-100 lashing from the clippers. THey smooth out the numbers. For the 128-122 GS overtime game, you have the 95-93 Spurs overtime game. The numbers didn't seem to skew all that much.

[Mythrol]

Naturally, I don't expect these things to translate directly, however I do expect the replacement of Rivers' and Babbitt's minutes with Q-pon and Cunningham (and Jimmer to some degree, in his 20+ minute games the defense doesn't look too bad.

I didn't look into Gordon, but I would assume again that given the atrocious effort by Babbit and Rivers on D that even below average defense would bump us up.

As far as the numbers go, naturally it doesn't take into account those things that you mentioned. It's funny you bring that up, because there were 2-3 games on either side that skewed the numbers. For that Houston game, I point to the 120-100 lashing from the clippers. THey smooth out the numbers. For the 128-122 GS overtime game, you have the 95-93 Spurs overtime game. The numbers didn't seem to skew all that much.

You are making the assumption Rivers is awful without comparing to Gordon or Jimmer. How do their numbers compare?

As far as the outliers go they very well could be a push in the end, but without even a half season of data they are even more important to consider.

Another thing to consider is how Monty rotates players at the end of the game because of offensive and defensive possessions.

I'm not saying that your theory won't hold up. I just think trying to quantify it as Austin + Babbitt out and Cunningham + QPon in is over simplifying it some.

[Pelicantoo]

You are making the assumption Rivers is awful without comparing to Gordon or Jimmer. How do their numbers compare?

As far as the outliers go they very well could be a push in the end, but without even a half season of data they are even more important to consider.

Another thing to consider is how Monty rotates players at the end of the game because of offensive and defensive possessions.

I'm not saying that your theory won't hold up. I just think trying to quantify it as Austin + Babbitt out and Cunningham + QPon in is over simplifying it some.

I understand, and this was less of a statement post and more of a "food for thought" post.

My assumption on rivers and babbitt was vs. The teams mean Opp. ppg. And you're right, if monty snaps the leash down to an 8 man rotation when we're healthy I think that could help as well.

This was definitely mildly trivial, I know there are more sophisticated ways of going about it, but I think most stats in general are oversimplified (I'm guessing pondy plays twice what's expected by his stats) because things like confidence and pt fluctuation and fit are impossible to quantify.

Anyways, before yall go jumping through hoops, mythrols post is a great disclaimer to the info above.

[Pelicantoo]

You are making the assumption Rivers is awful without comparing to Gordon or Jimmer. How do their numbers compare?

As far as the outliers go they very well could be a push in the end, but without even a half season of data they are even more important to consider.

Another thing to consider is how Monty rotates players at the end of the game because of offensive and defensive possessions.

I'm not saying that your theory won't hold up. I just think trying to quantify it as Austin + Babbitt out and Cunningham + QPon in is over simplifying it some.

I understand, and this was less of a statement post and more of a "food for thought" post.

My assumption on rivers and babbitt was vs. The teams mean Opp. ppg. And you're right, if monty snaps the leash down to an 8 man rotation when we're healthy I think that could help as well.

This was definitely mildly trivial, I know there are more sophisticated ways of going about it, but I think most stats in general are oversimplified (I'm guessing pondy plays twice what's expected by his stats) because things like confidence and pt fluctuation and fit are impossible to quantify.

Anyways, before yall go jumping through hoops, mythrols post is a great disclaimer to the info above.

[Pelicantoo]

#Pelicans D-Rating in Oct-Dec: 106.8 (26th in NBA)

#Pelicans' D-Rating in Jan: 102.0 (13th in NBA)

Via @nbastats

— Bourbon Street Shots (@BourbonStShots) January 26, 2015

Bumpity Bump

[HornetGuru]

q-pon effect.

crazy thing is i thought our D would be absolutely terrible without jrue.

[Mythrol]

q-pon effect.

crazy thing is i thought our D would be absolutely terrible without jrue.

Easier teams too. We had one of the worst schedules through December. It was bound to get better.

Also QPon. Lol. I sent MM a message during the game that it looks as if he already knows our system better than anyone else. Due gets other players in position and calls rotations and he has been here all of 3 weeks?

[N.O.Bronco]

I gotta admit, even if I'm still not sure about the long term decision, Q-Pon has been an good injection of leadership, smart defender and played mostly intelligent basketball. Wouldn't even mind him starting once Jrue comes back and Evans moves to the bench again.

I think the most telling thing for me was that Davis has mentioned him in a couple interviews now and talked about him more then any other player last night. Talking about how Q-pon was driving home to the team that they need to put together win streaks to gain confidence. Not just be happy with 2 or 3 wins but to set the goal of going on 7-8 win streaks. That they need to focus on the bigger picture. It clearly shows he has made a leadership impact on this team.

Can't say I am not a bit surprised given is reputation coming into the league as a bit of quiet, occasional joker. I know he was a leader with the Huskies so I guess he does have some history of it. Either way, hope he continues it.

[Pelicantoo]

q-pon effect.

crazy thing is i thought our D would be absolutely terrible without jrue.

I was also supremely impressed with tae's d on parsons