Eric Gordon is out indefinitely again. This time, it's not the knee that's taken out the Pelicans' guard, but a torn labrum suffered Saturday vs. Utah. The veteran guard was thought of as the heir apparent to the "best shooting guard after Kobe and Wade" just three years ago, but injuries have robbed him of that potential. He never wanted to sign with New Orleans after being sent there in the Chris Paul trade, he wanted to go to Phoenix. And since then it's been a cavalcade of injuries.
Without Gordon, the Pelicans could face a serious problem. The had slid Tyreke Evans into the small forward spot, and he's been playing well in that position. The risk was always that if Gordon got hurt, they'd have to move Evans to the two, and behind him are Luke Babbitt and John Salmons -- they have a small forward depth problem.
But looking at the way the Pelicans have played, there's reason to have some faith in the Pels' ability to survive without Gordon, and the fix comes from an unlikely place.
Austin Rivers.
A RIVERS RUNS THROUGH THE GOOD LINEUPS
Yes, the son of Doc Rivers who as a rookie out of Duke had one of the worst seasons for a first-year player ever, has quietly made strides which have a lot of promise for the Pelicans.
Rivers is averaging 7.4 points and 2.3 assists per game, which are both down from last year's numbers. But the key individual stat-sheet metric is that he's shooting 46 percent from the field, with a career-high 55 percent True Shooting percentage (factoring free throws and threes). That efficiency is key, but the bigger impact comes when you look at his on/off numbers.
The Pelicans are 5.4 points per 100 possessions better with him off the court than on, that's not a great metric. But first, his overall impact has been a slight positive, the Pelicans are plus-0.5 points better than their opponent with him off. But it really gets interesting when you look at how he performs with various combinations of the Pelicans' key players.
Playing with better players (i.e. Anthony Davis and Jrue Holiday) is going to give you better on vs. off numbers in general, and since Rivers comes off the bench, he's often playing those minutes with the superior teammates against weaker competition. Still, the numbers are compelling.
In short, the starting combination of Anthony Davis and Jrue Holiday have both individually and as a pair been better with Austin Rivers on the floor than Eric Gordon. A lot of this has to do with what has made so many dual-point-guard lineups successful: It gives you two playmakers and ballhandlers, and Rivers' ability to get to the rim really helps when you have the weakside as open as it does when you overload one side with Davis and Holiday.
Now, this isn't really a decision to make with Gordon out, but it does show that Rivers has been particularly effective, even more than expected, with those two on the floor. The question then, is what happens to the bench?
BENCH PRESS
The Pelicans are 19th in bench points per game according to HoopsStats.com, and taking Rivers off of it can have some serious issues. But there are three ways to mitigate this.
1. Play Evans at point more with the second unit. Evans has been good enough to maintain his starting spot, but he's also a ball-dominant guard who played at point guard for the first few years and primarily is the ball-handler when Holiday and/or Rivers is not in, and often when they are. Getting Evans the first break to come in with the second unit and push the offense vs. bench opponents could allow him to make more of an impact. That way Evans starts and is happy, and isn't fighing over the ball as much with Holiday.
2. Jimmer time. Jimmer Fredette has looked like an NBA point guard lately, and giving him some more times to effectively fire at will should be part of the plan for Monty Williams and company. Yes, you're going to get shredded defensively, but bear in mind the Pelicans' bench defense has actually been pretty good.
3. Gotta go deeper. Williams likes to play a tight rotation, but taking Gordon out means the wear and tear on the rest of the starters will be greater from a possessions standpoint, so going more to John Salmons, Luke Babbitt and even Russ Smith is going to be necessary, unless the Pelicans bring in another guy.
It seems unlikely, but Austin Rivers has been a net positive for the Pelicans this season. Going with two ball-handlers on the floor could mean more oops for Anthony Davis, better spacing, and less confusion than just sliding Tyreke Evans over and filling in the gaps. Keep Evans where he's comfortable, add a second ball handler, and keep what's working going. The Pelicans have a thin line to walk in the Western Conference. They need to stick with what works, as unconventional as it may seem.
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Originally Posted by HornetGuru
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