Pelicans Decline Fourth-Year Option On Austin Rivers

[MichaelMcNamara]

I'll say this about his trajectory. If his trajectory is a 100 story building, his rookie year he started off in the basement. Year 2, he made hi way to the lobby. At this rate, he'll be on about the 5th floor after year 5. The point is, he's definitely improving but he's going from awful to bad and eventually he'll go from bad to ok. Nothing to write home about. I'll give you credit MM. When you like a player, you'll defend them until the end. Truth is, Rivers is just not that good. AAU legend, NBA not so much.

I don't "like" Rivers. I just try to step back and look at it as a whole. And if he is in the lobby, so are a lot of guys from his class. Was Jeremy Lamb really better than him last year? And even if so, he definitely wasn't in the second half of the year.

People can't shake the rookie year, specifically the first half, out of there heads - but he had a pretty average year for a 21 yr old guard last year. I mean, it's VERY comparable to someone like Trey Burke, no? Both were 21 last year. And I would bet that the Jazz would pick up a 3.1 mil option for Burke for next year.

Saying he went from the basement to the lobby is a little over the top IMO. I will agree with the basement in the first half of year 1. He was in the lobby in the second half of year 1. 100 floor building - maybe floor 10-12 last year.

I could be right, I could be wrong, but an unbiased, truly objective person would bet on continued improvement from Rivers. The most logical future outcome

[Asteptooslow]

Jimmer fans need to know he isn't going to play very much at all regardless of this decision. I mean that as non-negatively as I can say it. He may get a DNP for the first game actually.

[Npliam]

Jimmer fans need to know he isn't going to play very much at all regardless of this decision. I mean that as non-negatively as I can say it. He may get a DNP for the first game actually.

Yeah, as dumb as that is it is probably true. Jimmer > Austin but wasn't drafted by the team.

[Eman5805]

My guess is that Demps made this decision with Rivers the second that he acquired Russ Smith.

Jrue and Tyreke at guard next year with Smith as the primary backup. Find the next Bellinelli, Morrow, Jimmer, etc. to play the 2 - something Demps seems to have no problem doing, and there is your guard depth.

They will put a lot of time into developing Russ this year, and I think he can be a big part of the long term rotation. They fell in love with that guy

Rivers made mistakes in the pre-scrimmage practice. They kept going. Russ Smith made mistakes, Monty stopped and specifically went to go over what he did wrong.

Granted, Rivers should know better and Russ is a rookie, but there could be something to that all the same.

And Russ Smith does physically resemble Patrick Beverly. That could be the template Monty is grooming him into.

[cgrand]

I could be right, I could be wrong, but an unbiased, truly objective person would bet on continued improvement from Rivers. The most logical future outcome

read the nylon calculus article I mentioned
he comes to the exact opposite conclusion

http://nyloncalculus.com/2014/10/17/...medium=twitter

interestingly nobody taken after him except lamb rates any higher, likely due to limited minutes

[cgrand]

double post

[Kibner]

read the nylon calculus article I mentioned
he comes to the exact opposite conclusion

http://nyloncalculus.com/2014/10/17/...medium=twitter

interestingly nobody taken after him except lamb rates any higher, likely due to limited minutes

Lamb played 200 more minutes than Rivers last season and very slightly more per game.

[cgrand]

rivers has played over 1000 more minutes than lamb
That's not inconsequential

[MichaelMcNamara]

rivers has played over 1000 more minutes than lamb
That's not inconsequential

Again, that is adding in his rookie minutes where he had a role he obviously wasn't ready for but needed to do out of team necessity (Gordon got hurt)

Lamb got to chill and just play his limited minutes - was asked to do far less and got to play with elite players.

Why does rookie year really matter. Lets look at last year. Again, way better than Lamb in the second half and similar to Burke as a 21 year old.

You put in Rivers' rookie year and it will pollute any and all stats. It was terrible. But are we worried he will ever be that player again? If not, then why include those?

[cgrand]

you and others brought up lamb
I was only pointing out that another objective unbiased opinion rates rivers as a bust, and the only player taken after him that rates any higher is lamb

it's all up to austin now, anyway
I read somewhere that he's know since the summer that they weren't picking up his option and now he has a "chip on his shoulder"...well, if he makes it happen this year the team will have another decision to make. I agree with the one they made this week, only to the extent that he has not shown enough to keep

[UptownFuz504]

I don't "like" Rivers. I just try to step back and look at it as a whole. And if he is in the lobby, so are a lot of guys from his class. Was Jeremy Lamb really better than him last year? And even if so, he definitely wasn't in the second half of the year.

People can't shake the rookie year, specifically the first half, out of there heads - but he had a pretty average year for a 21 yr old guard last year. I mean, it's VERY comparable to someone like Trey Burke, no? Both were 21 last year. And I would bet that the Jazz would pick up a 3.1 mil option for Burke for next year.

Saying he went from the basement to the lobby is a little over the top IMO. I will agree with the basement in the first half of year 1. He was in the lobby in the second half of year 1. 100 floor building - maybe floor 10-12 last year.

I could be right, I could be wrong, but an unbiased, truly objective person would bet on continued improvement from Rivers. The most logical future outcome

I agree with what it is that you're saying about the rest of that class. I'm a major hater of the 1 and done rule. The age needs to be raised. If the D in D-League stands for developmental, I say we use it that way. But back to your point, I truly believe that Rivers' ceiling is journeyman based on what i see when I go to the games. I respect what you do but rarely agree. I appreciate that you're willing to spar with forum posters.

[MichaelMcNamara]

I will say this is my thought on Rivers

- Ceiling: More Explosive (offensively) Avery Bradley
- Floor: Last year's Rivers for next few years
- Most likely Outcome: Jerryd Bayless with better defense.

I am not a huge fan. I do not care if he is here or not long term. I want the best team possible, not guys I "like". I just see slightly more upside in picking up the option than declining it, especially since we won't have cap room either way next summer.

[cgrand]

bayless is the very definition off journeyman fringe player
so your most likely outcome is that of a player not worthy of a 4th yr option being picked up

[MichaelMcNamara]

bayless is the very definition off journeyman fringe player
so your most likely outcome is that of a player not worthy of a 4th yr option being picked up

Why? Bayless made 3.1 last season. Also, I said 'with better defense', and Rivers still has a higher ceiling (Bradley IMO) while Bayless is who he is.

Based on what I think of Rivers potential futures, it makes sense to pick up a measly 3.1 million dollar option when you won't have cap space anyway

[David Fisher]

I currently don't see the upside of declining the option. Unless a major miracle occurs this move does not create functional cap space in excess of the MLE. Is Rivers necessarily worth $3.1M next season, no. But the Pelicans do not gain $3.1M to spend by declining the option thanks to how the cap works.

Demps probably has another play, but I doubt Rivers is very moveable in the next four months. Rivers might not be worth $3.1M next season - his continued development and how restricted free agency has played out recently could make his RFA rights well worthwhile in the summer of 2016.

http://www.thebirdwrites.com/2014/10...ption-decision

[MichaelMcNamara]

Stop being so logical and looking at the big picture! We are trying to talk about how much Rivers stunk in his rookie year here!

[David Fisher]

The Nylon Calculus and Lowe analysis of Rivers isn't even just about his rookie year. Both are focused on "is Rivers worth $3.1M in 2015-16." I concede the answer is probably no.

But that isn't the story. If the Pelicans don't spend that $3.1M on Rivers they don't have the opportunity to reallocate those assets. They simply save that money.

Funny how so many people decrying the Pelicans for not being patient (trading away firsts) now want to cut bait with, gasp, A LOTTERY PICK, even if the return is absolutely nothing.

[MichaelMcNamara]

Exactly. If there was going to be space, then I get it. I was pounding the drum not to pick up Aminu's option for that very reason.

If there is no space, Rivers' contract size does not matter. It is basically choosing him or a minimum contract player, and I would take him. The owner would have to shell out an additional 2.1 mil, but it don't effect our cap.

So to me it is:

Option A) Min. Contract Player

Option B) Rivers and Benson is 2 mil lighter in his pocket

Option B for me.

[UNO Gracias]

Can't we all just be happy that there is a strong chance Rivers might not be here much longer? Players have come and gone over the last few years, but Rivers has been a constant lightning rod. We are finally going to see him crap or get off the pot. At the end of the day, we are all winners with this move.

[cgrand]

Funny how so many people decrying the Pelicans for not being patient (trading away firsts) now want to cut bait with, gasp, A LOTTERY PICK, even if the return is absolutely nothing.

a lottery pick only has value before it is used, as you well know
also I'm going to go out on a limb and say the front office is aware of the cap ramifications of this decision and did not make it out of spite or ignorance

Austin didn't work out, to everyone's detriment
I'm certain there is an exit strategy that will be useful to the team

[Tin_Food]

For me confidence in Rivers has waned, in preseason he made a handful of mistakes when he was the ball handling guard, mishandling the ball or not making the right decision in time. Not reflective of his skills but I'm not sure if the mental block he sometimes gets is something he can overcome, especially with the added pressure he has now

[Tin_Food]

That said I think mm is right in that it doesn't make sense to decline unless there's a trade, in which case I don't know why he would do that if he is also losing confidence in rivers

[AUSSIE_PELICAN]

That said I think mm is right in that it doesn't make sense to decline unless there's a trade, in which case I don't know why he would do that if he is also losing confidence in rivers

There is a deadline to decline his option....I think it is the end of this month.
They took a gamble.

[MichaelMcNamara]

Or they know Gordon is opting out.

Am I just doing some wishful thinking here?

Even if I am, just let me be!!

[Perth_Hornet]

I for one am just excited to see how Rivers reacts to this on the court.

If he had a break out season and leaves fine, just want him to succeed really.