Pelicans Decline Fourth-Year Option On Austin Rivers

[DRDJ1]

I am not a fan of the move. If Gordon doesn't opt out, we don't really have cap room available anyway, so it doesn't do much.

Downside is that he plays well, and we probably wouldn't have to pay him much more, but we would have to give him multiple years instead of just controlling him for one and then making a decision in 2016 when the cap jumps.

It is not a make or break move - one that will decide a title or not, but I would have picked it up and made my decision on him in 2016.

Although I think you are one of the best basketball bloggers in the country I have a hard time agreeing with your opinion. I read all of your post and listen to all your podcast on BSS but I don't think this decision was made without a thorough evaluation of Austin's contribution thus far and the organizations estimation of his value in the future. I think Dell has proven that he can identify and bring in talent at a value and fully expect he has players in mind for next year if Austin is not resigned. Bellnelli was brought in for less than 3 million and Anthony Morrow for less than a million. Jimmer was also signed for less than a million. I understand that a 3 million dollar deal is not huge in the NBA but if Dell thinks he can bring in a SF next year and that he needs space by not resigning Austin then I understand.

[UNO Gracias]

http://www.nola.com/pelicans/index.s...o_make_pe.html



Can anyone translate? Does he expect or not expect an Aminu deal?

That article makes him come off as a spoiled brat. And it makes Monty sound aloof "No #10 pick has ever been this scrutinized." He is scrutinized because when you take a top 10 pick and he comes out playing like he belongs in the D League, he deserves the criticism.

I wish AR well. We could use him being even an average player, and if he is mentioned in trade rumors he should feel threatened that the Organization thinks somebody might show interest in his contract.

[DefensiveMind]

Your post makes even less sense if that's how you meant it.

Since when is a light coming on BEFORE the person even makes it to the NBA too late?

The light came on AFTER he made it to the league. Hence why we hear so much about his "work ethic." The problem is we don't have the time and money to work on the many inconsistencies in his game. Seeds of which were planted when he was younger and most likely not as open to coaching as he is now. I present to you his broken form as exhibit A. He may become a beyond useful player in this league, but we can't afford to see how long that takes.

ETA: I see what you mean Mythrol. I don't mean literally between Duke and the NBA. I meant the cumulative lessons learned between his time at Duke and working with Monty. Not the literal off season between those two stints.

[MichaelMcNamara]

Although I think you are one of the best basketball bloggers in the country I have a hard time agreeing with your opinion. I read all of your post and listen to all your podcast on BSS but I don't think this decision was made without a thorough evaluation of Austin's contribution thus far and the organizations estimation of his value in the future. I think Dell has proven that he can identify and bring in talent at a value and fully expect he has players in mind for next year if Austin is not resigned. Bellnelli was brought in for less than 3 million and Anthony Morrow for less than a million. Jimmer was also signed for less than a million. I understand that a 3 million dollar deal is not huge in the NBA but if Dell thinks he can bring in a SF next year and that he needs space by not resigning Austin then I understand.

If people always agreed with me, writing would be boring and pointless.

I don't think it is a clear cut decision either way. I would slightly lean on the side of picking up the option for the reasons I mentioned, but I see all the logic for not picking it up and I even laid out Dell's best case scenario in the piece.

Not gonna make or break the franchise either way.

[RUFshreve]

That article makes him come off as a spoiled brat. And it makes Monty sound aloof "No #10 pick has ever been this scrutinized." He is scrutinized because when you take a top 10 pick and he comes out playing like he belongs in the D League, he deserves the criticism.

I wish AR well. We could use him being even an average player, and if he is mentioned in trade rumors he should feel threatened that the Organization thinks somebody might show interest in his contract.

You don't think he gets scrutinized more than other top 10 busts simply because of his last name? I think people who knew Austin's game knew he would be a project, but you had others like Skip Bayless claim he was the second best player in the draft(behind only AD). When he didn't come into the league lighting it up, I think he was scrutinized more than most other rookies, simply because of his name and the hype a bozo or two gave him. When you have articles written about how your the worst NBA player in history, I would say that is undeserved scrutiny and criticism. I would agree with Monty on this one.

[Asteptooslow]

If you are a young team trying to get better. Knowing the guy next to you is a disgruntled employee can be a problem. Veterans not so much. I think they have to have some deal in mind already. I hope.

[Mythrol]

The light came on AFTER he made it to the league. Hence why we hear so much about his "work ethic." The problem is we don't have the time and money to work on the many inconsistencies in his game. Seeds of which were planted when he was younger and most likely not as open to coaching as he is now. I present to you his broken form as exhibit A. He may become a beyond useful player in this league, but we can't afford to see how long that takes.

ETA: I see what you mean Mythrol. I don't mean literally between Duke and the NBA. I meant the cumulative lessons learned between his time at Duke and working with Monty. Not the literal off season between those two stints.

Now we are getting somewhere! That point is understandable to me. I still don't agree but it is understandable.

The reason I have issue with it is because It is based off Rivers being uncoachable in HS and college. We simply don't know if that is true. It could be that he has been working on his shot a long time but had a tendency to revert until he could be a full time Bb player.

We knew he was a project when we drafted him. It has been 2 years and he has shown improvement. Now we get into year 3 and suddenly we don't have time to wait? Then why did we draft a project?

[Mythrol]

Although I do highly respect your opinion, I can't possibly correlate the Parsons situation with Austin. Chandler was the 38th pick in the second round in 2011, was paid 850,000 in 2012 and signed to a 46 million dollar contract by the Mavs. He was on the second team rookie of the year team. The reason he was "paid" was because he over-performed. Austin was the 10th pick in the 2012 draft on an over 7 million dollar 3 year guaranteed salary with an option that was over 3 million and has under-performed. I have to believe that Dell and the organization understand his value and do not think he is worth a 3 million dollar price tag on the open market. That doesn't mean that he will or will not be resigned next year but the organization obviously thinks that he can be replaced if needed at a lower price. For example, they signed Jimmer for less than 1 million dollars and I'm not sure if they think Austin is out performing Jimmer at 3 times the cost. Don't get me wrong, I'm not implying that Jimmer is a better player than Austin but he may be a better value. Hell, I don't even know how Russ is competing against Austin in practice even though I haven't seen anything to suggest that Russ could stick.

I specifically say I am not talking about the talent of the two players and you proceed to write a paragraph about the talent between the two players.

I was making a point about how Houston tried to get cute with how they handled Parsons when they could have still had him for another year at less than 1m. I was focused on how the FO handled the situation, not the player.

[itsADstime]

If I were in Dell's position I probably would have probably picked up his option. However this is a huge moment for Austin Rivers the professional basketball player, he is now fighting for his NBA life. If he really has this work ethic and drive to succeed we've all heard about now is his opportunity to step up and show it. I for one am optimistic for his chances, I hope he brings it this year and carves out his niche.

[Silverfoxx]

If I were in Dell's position I probably would have probably picked up his option. However this is a huge moment for Austin Rivers the professional basketball player, he is now fighting for his NBA life. If he really has this work ethic and drive to succeed we've all heard about now is his opportunity to step up and show it. I for one am optimistic for his chances, I hope he brings it this year and carves out his niche.

Is that Animal Collective in your avi?

[Perth_Hornet]

Now we are getting somewhere! That point is understandable to me. I still don't agree but it is understandable.

The reason I have issue with it is because It is based off Rivers being uncoachable in HS and college. We simply don't know if that is true. It could be that he has been working on his shot a long time but had a tendency to revert until he could be a full time Bb player.

We knew he was a project when we drafted him. It has been 2 years and he has shown improvement. Now we get into year 3 and suddenly we don't have time to wait? Then why did we draft a project?

After 2 years you'd want to see at least some signs of an upwards trend in improvement. Lamb, Ross, Sullinger, Harkless have all shown a lot more than Rivers on a consistent basis an were taken lower than him.

[MichaelMcNamara]

After 2 years you'd want to see at least some signs of an upwards trend in improvement. Lamb, Ross, Sullinger, Harkless have all shown a lot more than Rivers on a consistent basis an were taken lower than him.

So there are two different things here. You mention upward trend and consistent good play.

I would argue, he has shown more improvement than a guy like Lamb, while Lamb has had a better (barely) two years. Lamb has been okay, but he actually played MUCH worse in the second half of last season after a pretty solid first half. Rivers started terrible. Was decent in the second half of his first season and was much better in his second season.

Based on trajectory, I would bet on Rivers having a better career than Lamb

[UNO Gracias]

I think he gets scrutinized more than your average top 10 pick because the year before he was drafted he was the No. 1 or No. 2 overall prospect going into his freshman year. We drafted him based on his potential, and so far he is showing that all that got him into this league is his last name.

The criticism is well deserved, so he will get to wear that chip on his shoulder proudly this season.

[UptownFuz504]

I think he gets scrutinized more than your average top 10 pick because the year before he was drafted he was the No. 1 or No. 2 overall prospect going into his freshman year. We drafted him based on his potential, and so far he is showing that all that got him into this league is his last name.

The criticism is well deserved, so he will get to wear that chip on his shoulder proudly this season.

Could not have said it better

[Perth_Hornet]

So now one of two things will happen:

1. Rivers is going to get his Kobe on and chuck 27 shots per game

2. He magically improves in all areas he was deficient in and lives up to his potential

[MichaelMcNamara]

So now one of two things will happen:

1. Rivers is going to get his Kobe on and chuck 27 shots per game

2. He magically improves in all areas he was deficient in and lives up to his potential

I would bet a large amount of money that neither of those things will happen

[Perth_Hornet]

I would bet a large amount of money that neither of those things will happen

Nonsense.

[Mythrol]

Nonsense.

I agree. What you are saying is nonsense.

[Perth_Hornet]

I agree. What you are saying is nonsense.

[RhythmNathan]

So if we are declining his option, just hypothetically imagine he's not back next year. Then assume Gordon is unloaded for hopefully a SF or SG. Does that guarantee we need to acquire guard depth specifically through the draft next year? Also taking into account creating cap space for the upcoming Davis deal?

Just food for thought. Please no whammies.

[MichaelMcNamara]

So if we are declining his option, just hypothetically imagine he's not back next year. Then assume Gordon is unloaded for hopefully a SF or SG. Does that guarantee we need to acquire guard depth specifically through the draft next year? Also taking into account creating cap space for the upcoming Davis deal?

Just food for thought. Please no whammies.

My guess is that Demps made this decision with Rivers the second that he acquired Russ Smith.

Jrue and Tyreke at guard next year with Smith as the primary backup. Find the next Bellinelli, Morrow, Jimmer, etc. to play the 2 - something Demps seems to have no problem doing, and there is your guard depth.

They will put a lot of time into developing Russ this year, and I think he can be a big part of the long term rotation. They fell in love with that guy

[cgrand]

both nylon calculus and zach lowe went long recently on this very topic
both are good reads

I just don't think, and apparently the team agrees, that rivers will ever be a top of the rotation player on a playoff caliber team.
lowe makes the point well that while he has a real NBA talent (getting to the rim) nothing good happens when he gets there...it's either a prayer floater, a brick, a missed assist opportunity, a turnover, or an empty trip to the line

[MichaelMcNamara]

both nylon calculus and zach lowe went long recently on this very topic
both are good reads

I just don't think, and apparently the team agrees, that rivers will ever be a top of the rotation player on a playoff caliber team.
lowe makes the point well that while he has a real NBA talent (getting to the rim) nothing good happens when he gets there...it's either a prayer floater, a brick, a missed assist opportunity, a turnover, or an empty trip to the line

If you expect Rivers next 5 years to be a lot like his first two, then of course it makes sense. What I can't figure out is: Why should we expect that? His trajectory is clearly upward. Why expect it to level out when he is so young and was clearly a long term project from the start?

[UptownFuz504]

If you expect Rivers next 5 years to be a lot like his first two, then of course it makes sense. What I can't figure out is: Why should we expect that? His trajectory is clearly upward. Why expect it to level out when he is so young and was clearly a long term project from the start?

I'll say this about his trajectory. If his trajectory is a 100 story building, his rookie year he started off in the basement. Year 2, he made hi way to the lobby. At this rate, he'll be on about the 5th floor after year 5. The point is, he's definitely improving but he's going from awful to bad and eventually he'll go from bad to ok. Nothing to write home about. I'll give you credit MM. When you like a player, you'll defend them until the end. Truth is, Rivers is just not that good. AAU legend, NBA not so much.

[Npliam]

I think he gets scrutinized more than your average top 10 pick because the year before he was drafted he was the No. 1 or No. 2 overall prospect going into his freshman year. We drafted him based on his potential, and so far he is showing that all that got him into this league is his last name.

The criticism is well deserved, so he will get to wear that chip on his shoulder proudly this season.

I don't think he is he most scrutinized player drafted at #10 on his own team.