Anthony Davis and His Next Contract with the New Orleans Pelicans

[da ThRONe]

I said this on BBS and I'll say it here. The basic premise of the article is pretty much common sense. What makes this article informative are the details and variables that may play out over the next few years.

As for Davis not taking the money it's such a low probability and really it was address in the MM write up so I'm not sure what the fuss is about exploring all the options.

[da ThRONe]

If our team jumps to say...54+ wins this year and Davis averages in the neighborhood of 24pts-12rbs-3blks-3ast he could very possibly win MVP. And if we have an MVP on our roster for the next 5 years I could definitely see Durant or other stars wanting to join the team in 2016. $36 million in cap is...substantial.

I don't see Davis putting up those numbers on a 54+ win team. If we win that many games it will be because our core is healthy. When healthy those guys biggest strength is offense and Asik as a rebounder. Davis averaged 10 RPG on maybe one of the worse rebounding teams last year. Can't see him grabbing 12 playing with Asik and I can't see him going for 24 a night with a healthy Anderson, Gordon, Holiday, and Evans.

[nola007]

I did and that is why I asked the question of what happens if he plays for the $9 million in 16/17. I do not see anywhere where it states he becomes and unrestricted free agent if he made that choice. I did not see where it was written that he had that option. It only states that the Pels can make him a qualifying offer and he becomes a restricted free agent. So i asked, evidently there is way more ESTROGEN on this site than testosterone.

nola 007 did you read the article at all?

[IamQuailman]

Man oh man, would it be amazing if AD qualified to get the Rose Rule.

Edit: I misread. I thought it was two of the three criteria. Not any one of them. Still be sweet if AD wins MVP in the next two seasons. With LeBron and KD playing at a high level he'd need a 28/13/4/3/3 points/boards/dimes/blocks/steals kinda year though. But I think he's up to it.

READ THE FREAKING ARTICLE!

[Schmide234]

I don't see Davis putting up those numbers on a 54+ win team. If we win that many games it will be because our core is healthy. When healthy those guys biggest strength is offense and Asik as a rebounder. Davis averaged 10 RPG on maybe one of the worse rebounding teams last year. Can't see him grabbing 12 playing with Asik and I can't see him going for 24 a night with a healthy Anderson, Gordon, Holiday, and Evans.

I see what you're saying but sometimes this works both ways. If Asik is taking on the other team's best rebounder AD could get more rebounds. If our core is healthy they are still just complimentary pieces to the real show, and Monty knows this. AD will get his shots, and may get even more easy buckets because of a healthy core. That's how I would see a 54 win team functiong with AD as the centerpiece

[da ThRONe]

I did and that is why I asked the question of what happens if he plays for the $9 million in 16/17. I do not see anywhere where it states he becomes and unrestricted free agent if he made that choice. I did not see where it was written that he had that option. It only states that the Pels can make him a qualifying offer and he becomes a restricted free agent. So i asked, evidently there is way more ESTROGEN on this site than testosterone.

I guess everyone just assumed as a fan people know these things already. It's pretty basic stuff. Davis can turn down all that money and play out his rookie contract which has three more years and tops out at around 9M's his finally season.

[WeatherNLU]

I did and that is why I asked the question of what happens if he plays for the $9 million in 16/17. I do not see anywhere where it states he becomes and unrestricted free agent if he made that choice. I did not see where it was written that he had that option. It only states that the Pels can make him a qualifying offer and he becomes a restricted free agent. So i asked, evidently there is way more ESTROGEN on this site than testosterone.

You have to learn not to question the all-knowing.

[NOSportsFan]

Quality read...Just one question. If he doesn't make the Rose Rule, how will Jrue and Rekes new contracts affect salary cap, considering the possiblity of resigning Asik and Anderson? Anderson will likely command somewhere in the 12-15 range, and if history holds true, so will Asik. I understand this plays out with the "if healthy and at max contribution" moniker, but could the Pelicans be looking at having 1 player making over 20 mill, and 3 players making at least 12?

[Eman5805]

I mean, it's so comprehensive. I was surprised you left out what happens when Courtney Fells demands a max contract.

But other than that glaring oversight, yeah, great read.

[cgrand]

I did and that is why I asked the question of what happens if he plays for the $9 million in 16/17. I do not see anywhere where it states he becomes and unrestricted free agent if he made that choice. I did not see where it was written that he had that option. It only states that the Pels can make him a qualifying offer and he becomes a restricted free agent. So i asked, evidently there is way more ESTROGEN on this site than testosterone.

First, let us start with the timeline. The New Orleans Pelicans can not offer Anthony Davis a contract extension until July 1st, 2015. He will have until November 2nd of 2015 to sign the offer. If the two sides fail to agree on a new contract, then the Pelicans will have to wait until June of 2016 to extend him the qualifying offer and make him a restricted free agent. From there, they would still have the ability to negotiate with Davis and sign him to a new deal, or allow him to sign a contract with another team and match that contract.

if he does not does not sign an extension, plays for the QO, and then does not sign either an offer sheet or a new contract as an RFA, he would then become unrestricted. this has never happened with a player of davis' calibrer

[David Fisher]

A couple things on this "what if he took the qualifying offer then became a restricted free agent" business.

-The Rose Rule extension applies only when signing with the Pelicans, period. If he qualifies for it, but accepts the qualifying offer instead the maximum anyone offers him in the summer of 2017-18 is 25% of the cap with 4.5% raises.

So, let's just say that he wants out of New Orleans so bad that despite qualifying for the 30% contract he accepts the QO and the maximum possible four year contract afterward. That contract is only 25% and only with 4.5% raises. Also, remember that in year one he made $9,191,949 instead of $22,605,275. For apples to apples, let's compare under the $80 Million cap.

Out of NOLA option - $89,629,047 over five years
In NOLA option - $131,300,275 over five years

Even if Davis does not qualify for the Rose Rule, he still forfeits nearly $20 Million over five years compared to what he makes with the 25% and full 7.5% raises, ($109,416,896). If he does qualify, however, we're talking about giving up $41 Million. This isn't an apples and oranges conversation (Melo's five year max in New York vs. the four year max elsewhere). This is comparing his earning power over five years in two scenarios.

The reason people aren't giving the "he takes the qualifying offer" much credence is because of how absurd a player giving up $20 to $40 million is over the same time frame.

[whomdoyouwork4]

I did and that is why I asked the question of what happens if he plays for the $9 million in 16/17. I do not see anywhere where it states he becomes and unrestricted free agent if he made that choice. I did not see where it was written that he had that option. It only states that the Pels can make him a qualifying offer and he becomes a restricted free agent. So i asked, evidently there is way more ESTROGEN on this site than testosterone.

If he declines A) our 5-year max then B) restricted free agency and instead plays out the final year of his rookie contract, he gets UFA. Glad I could man eeerrrrrp and answer your question for you.

[Perth_Hornet]

A couple things on this "what if he took the qualifying offer then became a restricted free agent" business.

-The Rose Rule extension applies only when signing with the Pelicans, period. If he qualifies for it, but accepts the qualifying offer instead the maximum anyone offers him in the summer of 2017-18 is 25% of the cap with 4.5% raises.

So, let's just say that he wants out of New Orleans so bad that despite qualifying for the 30% contract he accepts the QO and the maximum possible four year contract afterward. That contract is only 25% and only with 4.5% raises. Also, remember that in year one he made $9,191,949 instead of $22,605,275. For apples to apples, let's compare under the $80 Million cap.

Out of NOLA option - $89,629,047 over five years
In NOLA option - $131,300,275 over five years

Even if Davis does not qualify for the Rose Rule, he still forfeits nearly $20 Million over five years compared to what he makes with the 25% and full 7.5% raises, ($109,416,896). If he does qualify, however, we're talking about giving up $41 Million. This isn't an apples and oranges conversation (Melo's five year max in New York vs. the four year max elsewhere). This is comparing his earning power over five years in two scenarios.

The reason people aren't giving the "he takes the qualifying offer" much credence is because of how absurd a player giving up $20 to $40 million is over the same time frame.

Don't forget about taxes eating into the actual take home salary to the tune of at least 40%.

[MichaelMcNamara]

Again it is in there if you go down a little more.

Also, yes I could go into more detail into something that has never happened, but if I clearly laid out every single thing that has never happened before, it would be a ten million word article.

[MichaelMcNamara]

You have to learn not to question the all-knowing.

Quality contribution. As usual. Wish you would post more!

[MichaelMcNamara]

I mean, it's so comprehensive. I was surprised you left out what happens when Courtney Fells demands a max contract.

But other than that glaring oversight, yeah, great read.

I know right?

Hey, this is more detail than we have ever seen before, but what if Unicorns start playing basketball? How will this effect AD?

[Perth_Hornet]

Fantastic read. Does anybody have recommendations as to the best website for player contracts and how much they get per year and so forth?

http://hoopshype.com/salaries.htm

[RaisingTheBar]

http://hoopshype.com/salaries.htm

spotrac.com is one of the best I've come across.

[The JNR]

I know right?

Hey, this is more detail than we have ever seen before, but what if Unicorns start playing basketball? How will this effect AD?

Are you kidding me? Unicorns wouldn't even make the D league. No coordination, and too much risk of popping the ball on their horn. Davis wouldn't have a problem with them at all.

[Caffeinedisastr]

Are you kidding me? Unicorns wouldn't even make the D league. No coordination, and too much risk of popping the ball on their horn. Davis wouldn't have a problem with them at all.

I don't know man. I wouldn't want to attack the basket when the risk of impalement is there.

[AUSSIE_PELICAN]

MM,

You mention Holiday, Evans and Asik being extended during the time of Anthony's contract extension, but what about Anderson?

If the FO is willing to go into the lux tax could we potentially still see Holiday, Evans, our new 2015/16 SF, Davis, Anderson and Asik all on the team in 2017/18 and possibly beyond?

Thanks

[pawel]

IMO we will not have money to pay the market value of Jrue (~12m), Evans (~12m), Ryno (~12m), AD (>20m), Asik (~12m) without insurance from Benson that he is able to go into tax. And this is hard to believe that he will be prepeared to pay 70m to the core.

Too many variables IMO. it is better to wait and see how this core will play together. But in the end I do not believe that those 5 will remain intact in 2-3 years time.

[Tin_Food]

If the Pels was still run by Shinn I'd be more worried about ADs leaving, but even then as per the article we'd have AD for at LEAST 5 more seasons.

I'm an advocate of this current organisation, I don't know if it was when Benson took over and Micky Loomis got involved or if Dell has gotten better over time, but i consider the Pels to be a top 10 run organisation in the league. I used to have to get unreasonably optimistic with the Bower moves (even then i was pretty annoyed with the Posey signing), but with almost every move Dell has made over the past couple years sans Gordon, I've been pleasantly surprised.

Dell has shown Spur like ability to get decent role players, and hopefully we'll get to see his work come to fruition this season for all the quality players. I think the team constructed not only has good players, but players that compliment each other quite well.

Long story short, I think we might end up having AD stay with us like Duncan did for the Spurs, I am that confident in this organisation (of course provided we have reasonable health).

[Vinny6420]

Nice article

[durun]

If Davis does not see the Pelicans as being a contender, it will be a sign and trade deal. He can sign and demand a trade which is a strong possibility. This team cannot be merely playoff bound but has to be a contender for the Pelicans to keep Davis.


Being with a contender or playing in a large market will greatly increase his endorsement monies. Just look at Chris Paul’s situation with endorsements since he arrived in L.A.. Do you think that would have happened if he stayed in NOLA? It’s a no brainy for the agent to sign a max, but will Davis and/or his father force a trade is the real question. The sign and trade scenario looms large if the team does not win.

Duncan won early in his career so it increased his chances of staying. Durant did not demand a trade because OKC is a contender.

Maybe the BSS should compose an article on how each Pelican fit with Davis and what more needs to be done to make the Pel a contender.