Making the Playoffs

[David Fisher]

Just how much closer are the Pelicans to making the playoffs?

Last year (thanks to injures) New Orleans finished 15 games out of the playoffs. Assuming that the Spurs, Thunder, and Clippers all repeat as division champs (considering the off season, this feels like a safe bet) it appears that potentially nine teams are competing for five playoff spots.

Houston - unarguably is worse than last season. "Flexibility" and "Cap Space" do not suit up or score points. Contract year Ariza could be an upgrade over Chandler Parsons considering their system, but losing Omer Asik and Jeremy Lin hurts their depth.

Portland - tread water this off season. As many have noted repeatedly, benefited from ridiculously good injury luck. Their core is relatively young however, so internal improvement is possible.

Golden State - Kevin Love continues to hover over their franchise. Steve Kerr has never coached an NBA game. Suffered some injuries last year. Depending on your belief of the upgrade at coach the Warriors made, could improve or backslide.

Memphis - replaced Mike Miller with Vince Carter. That's probably a downgrade. If Marc Gasol stays healthy they will continue to be dangerous. Ed Davis was nice depth to lose on a such a cheap contract to the Lakers.

Dallas - made two big moves bringing in Tyson Chandler and Chandler Parsons. Also lost depth sacrificing Jose Calderon, Vince Carter, and potentially Shaun Marion (3-5 in total minutes last season). Dirk's game is made to age well - he's not getting shorter and his release point isn't getting lower or slower.

Phoenix - difficult to grade their off season until Bledsoe is taken care of. Isaiah Thomas was a nice pick up, but offense was not their problem last year. If they can bring back Bledsoe they should be better.

Minnesota - Any Kevin Love trade will make this team much worse in the short term. Even the rumors circling the franchise could have a negative effect. Flip Saunders is a marginally successful coach, probably not an upgrade over Adelman. Struggled mightily finishing games so if Love is around all season could improve in the W-L column.

Denver - Added Arron Afflalo for practically nothing. Adding Danilo Gallinari and JaVale McGee from injury. Another /year under Brian Shaw an should expect some improvement. Home court advantage was not significant last year (22-19) but could bounce back. Slower style may not be as conducive to previous home court advantage though.

New Orleans - We all know. Injuries, defense, and rebounding. Omer Asik should fix defense and rebounding a lot on his own.

Sacramento - Nope

Lakers - Nope

Utah - Nope

Some important numbers.

Pelicans went:

0-4 vs San Antonio
1-2 vs Oklahoma City
1-3 vs Clippers
1-3 vs Houston
1-3 vs Portland
0-3 vs Golden State
3-1 vs Memphis
0-4 vs Dallas
0-4 vs Phoenix
1-2 vs Minnesota
2-2 vs Denver
1-3 vs Sacramento
2-1 vs Lakers
2-2 vs Utah

Going to have to post winning records against more than two teams in the Western Conference to make the playoffs.

[Mr. West]

If contract year Ariza could screw Houston again, they wouldn't have a single great player on their roster outside Howard and Harden. Beverly could be their 3rd best player and that's a very shallow team that I think we could best if everything goes right.

Minnesota needs to trade Love to Chicago or Cleveland. That'd suck for us if they shipped him to GS, because like you stated they could be due for a downgrade with a new coach.

I suppose we are hoping an east team can somehow poach Bledsoe from Phoenix? Unlikely.

Don't really understand what Denver is doing. They basically got Afflalo for nothing which is a great talent upgrade but it just doesn't seem like this team is built to do anything. They'd probably be 3rd in the East, and yes that's a shame, but they can't be hoping to go very far in the West. First round fodder if they do make it IMO.

[Caffeinedisastr]

It's positive that we got wins against some better teams last year considering the injuries.

We'll be much better this year. I'll say it now:

I guarantee a playoff spot.

[jegirouard]

Getting swept by Phoenix really annoyed me...

[da ThRONe]

This is clearly the best chance we have of reaching the post season since the post CP3 era. This is a really talented team and should be in the playoffs hunt all the way to the end minus another injury plagued season. I don't know if we'll make the playoffs as expect some of the same chemistry issues I hoped we could have worked on last season and the glaring hole at the 3 spot. However with that said it certainly wouldn't surprise me if we do make it anywhere from 6th-8th this coming season. Although if I had to put money on it I'd say the 9th seed and say we get 45-48 wins.

[Euphonetiks]

A Dwight injury and Houston could be downright awful.

[nola007]

I agree with your analysis. I think we can win anywhere from 41 to 49 games. We can finish anywhere from 10th to 6th. What do you think happens going forward if we stay healthy and only get to 46 wins?

This is clearly the best chance we have of reaching the post season since the post CP3 era. This is a really talented team and should be in the playoffs hunt all the way to the end minus another injury plagued season. I don't know if we'll make the playoffs as expect some of the same chemistry issues I hoped we could have worked on last season and the glaring hole at the 3 spot. However with that said it certainly wouldn't surprise me if we do make it anywhere from 6th-8th this coming season. Although if I had to put money on it I'd say the 9th seed and say we get 45-48 wins.

[Kumar]

Did Portland really tread water? They retained a pretty solid core and added to their bench.

[David Fisher]

Added Chris Kaman and Steve Blake. Lost (potentially) Mo Williams. That feels like treading water to me. Kaman we know. Blake could hardly get off the bench for the Warriors. Portland's best hope for improving their record appears (in my opinion) to be internal growth and another incredibly lucky injury streak.

[ItIsRynosTime]

[da ThRONe]

Did Portland really tread water? They retained a pretty solid core and added to their bench.

Yeah I think continuity is completely being undervalued. It is probably the greatest reason I think we miss the playoffs. I don't think losing Mo Williams will be that big of a loss if any.

[da ThRONe]

I agree with your analysis. I think we can win anywhere from 41 to 49 games. We can finish anywhere from 10th to 6th. What do you think happens going forward if we stay healthy and only get to 46 wins?

You mean will 46 wins be good enough for the playoffs or what will it mean for the team going forward assuming 46 wins isn't good enough to get us to the post season?

[ItIsRynosTime]

Here are the playoff teams in the Western Conference

1 Clippers
2 Thunder
3 Warriors
4 Spurs
5 New Orleans
6 Portland
7 Phoenix
8 Houston
----------
9 Dallas
10 Memphis
11 Denver

[nola007]

I don't think making the playoffs makes any difference, 8th seed or 9th. I think you evaluate the wins not making the playoffs.

You mean will 46 wins be good enough for the playoffs or what will it mean for the team going forward assuming 46 wins isn't good enough to get us to the post season?

[RaisingTheBar]

I may be overly optimistic, but I don't think there's a shot in hell we make it to 5. Like the enthusiasm though.

I'd also like to know your reasoning for Dallas falling all the way to 10th. They got better.

[RaisingTheBar]

I don't think making the playoffs makes any difference, 8th seed or 9th. I think you evaluate the wins not making the playoffs.

If the goal is to make the playoffs, then yes you evaluate if you make it or not.

[nola007]

Oh really, so Atlanta should evaluate their team differently because they made the playoffs?

If the goal is to make the playoffs, then yes you evaluate if you make it or not.

[RaisingTheBar]

Oh really, so Atlanta should evaluate their team differently because they made the playoffs?

Atlanta is in the east and Atlanta isn't the Pelicans. Their goals may be different.

We know what the goals are here, they have been stated many times. PLAYOFFS.

[nola007]

So if we win 46 and make the playoffs all is good, but if we win 48 and miss the playoffs its a completely different evaluations?

Atlanta is in the east and Atlanta isn't the Pelicans. Their goals may be different.

We know what the goals are here, they have been stated many times. PLAYOFFS.

[Kumar]

I mean I think we are a playoff team too. Every game we win means there is one less win to go around for an opponent. I just don't see how Memphis can be discounted. They are a proven team time and time again and will be getting Qpon back this year as well. Denver can't be discounted either since they had arguably worse injury luck than we did. I don't buy into Phoenix. Basically we will be fighting with Houston, GSW, Portland, Denver, Dallas and Memphis. All similar tier teams. Assuming SAS, OKC, and LAC stay put, this leaves one team the odd one out- whichever one has the worst injury luck.

[ItIsRynosTime]

I may be overly optimistic, but I don't think there's a shot in hell we make it to 5. Like the enthusiasm though.

I'd also like to know your reasoning for Dallas falling all the way to 10th. They got better.

Dallas lost Vince Carter, Jose Calderon, and Samuel Dalembert.

They added Chandler Parsons, Tyson Chandler, Raymond Felton and Rashard Lewis.

Their best player, Dirk Nowitzki, is 36.

I feel Houston is still a better team. Dallas may be better than Memphis, so you're right I could see them 9th. The main reason is that other teams like the Suns (if they can resign Eric Bledsoe) have a team full of players who are getting better and are hungry for playoff berth and also added Isaiah Thomas. Dallas could win 46-48 games and miss the playoffs. If Dallas made the playoffs and Portland missed the playoffs, would I be surprised? No.

[da ThRONe]

I don't think making the playoffs makes any difference, 8th seed or 9th. I think you evaluate the wins not making the playoffs.

This is complicated. So many moving parts. Will Asik be turned off if we miss the playoffs and see greener grass on another team? Is any one of or both Monty Williams and/or Dell Demps fired? Not making the playoffs could lead to so many different scenarios it's almost impossible to gauge how the team moves forward. I could see both of the above playing out. If that's the case there is no way of knowing.

Assuming Asik re-signs and both Williams and Demps are retained I think we are definitely a playoffs team the following season. I'd say we flirt with 50+ wins.

[RaisingTheBar]

1st, we aren't making the playoffs with 46 wins. Also, I didn't set the goals. There are expectations by our HC and people in the FO put on by the owner, if those expectations aren't met, there will be consequences. Simple as that. If you are talking about player evaluations that's totally different.

[ItIsRynosTime]

So if we win 46 and make the playoffs all is good, but if we win 48 and miss the playoffs its a completely different evaluations?

No team in the West will make the playoffs winning 46 games, so it is a mute point. The WC will be just as competitive if not more so, than last year.

[RaisingTheBar]

Dallas lost Vince Carter, Jose Calderon, and Samuel Dalembert.

They added Chandler Parsons, Tyson Chandler, Raymond Felton and Rashard Lewis.

Their best player, Dirk Nowitzki, is 36.

I feel Houston is still a better team. Dallas may be better than Memphis, so you're right I could see them 9th. The main reason is that other teams like the Suns (if they can resign Eric Bledsoe) has a team full of players who are getting better and are hungry for playoff berth and also added Isaiah Thomas. Dallas could win 46-48 games and miss the playoffs. If Dallas made the playoffs and Portland missed the playoffs, would I be surprised? No.

You make some good points, but I guess if you aren't a Parsons fan I can understand your opinion. Chandler defensively is better than Dalembert. Parsons is a HUGE get for them. Felton and Lewis are just backups but both can score.

I just feel that at worst Dallas won't take a step backwards, which means right at 49 wins.