Projecting Pelicans Wins

[RekeHavoc]

Just wanted to see if you were confident in it enough to lay any money on it. When I am confident or not so confident in something I put money on it.

Interestingly, your win shares has Ryno #2 on the team. So bringing your second most important win share player off the bench for say 6 minutes less per game. That is 82 x 6 = 492 less minutes over the course of a season. Seems like the wrong strategy, any way you look at it, but that is what people are expecting and what posters on this forum are pining for.

He never said that's what he believed... He just posted the numbers. And then said that he thought we'd have more wins than that. Please show me where he said he thought we'd be 42-40... You need to actually read before posting and calm down bro.

@Greewe great post. Appreciate it

[ItIsRynosTime]

I'm absolutely not confident enough in this to put money on it. It was more just an exercise because I was curious what this particular method would say about adding Asik and Salmons subtracting injuries.

And in fairness to the minute projections, MM's projecting Ryno at 30 MPG and Asik at 28. Even though Ryno is coming off the bench, he'll still likely see the second most minutes of the bigs.

Good work on the chart. And yeah, we know how I feel about this less minutes with Ryno but I feel the same about less minutes with good players, especially when it's one of your top 3 players, in this case, top two. I was upset seeing JR Smith on the bench not getting enough minutes throughout his years with Denver but he had more reason to be on the bench I suppose and I felt the same way when Manu Ginobili was coming off the bench for the Spurs in his prime. But this one takes the cake for me. I'm just going to have to pray on this or something.

[RekeHavoc]

Good work on the chart. And yeah, we know how I feel about this less minutes with Ryno but I feel the same about less minutes with good players, especially when it's one of your top 3 players, in this case, top two. I have been upset seeing JR Smith on the bench not getting enough minutes throughout his career but he had more reason to be on the bench I suppose and I felt the same way when Manu Ginobili was coming off the bench for the Spurs in his prime. But this one takes the cake for me. I'm just going to have to pray on this or something.

Why does coming off the bench matter? He should still play probably more than Asik and he'll finish most games. I'd rather finish games than start them...

[ItIsRynosTime]

Why does coming off the bench matter? He should still play probably more than Asik and he'll finish most games. I'd rather finish games than start them...

Well how many times am I going to have to answer this question? So not only will he be getting less minutes off the bench but there is the obvious or maybe not so obvious that if he's finishing games, he gets way less rest between his minutes. The example I use, if he comes in the game with 6 minutes left in the 3rd quarter, he's going to probably play 18 consecutive minutes to close out the game. Stuff like that will happen a lot, he will probably get the bulk of his minutes in two bursts, one in each half. Since he's not going to see action for the first say 6-10 minutes of the game, all of his minutes come closer together, so he has less rest and time between them.

Another reason why it matters is you want to get out to the lead and not get behind out the gate. You want to hammer opponents early and some of them will give in on that particular day. So you bring all your fire power early and try to open the game up a sizable lead on an opponent. The opposing team will let up a little if they are trailing big early. I bet someone who studies psychology would agree with that.

He would be more effective for the rest of the starters, starting. He should be developing chemistry with the starters if he's playing with them in the 4th quarter. Then the fact he is a shooter and will probably make more if he gets to play right after warming up and doesn't have to sit. Then there are other reasons like wanting to see him at or near 20 PPG and more recognition from more casual fans and everyone in general. There a lot of reasons, so I'm not sure why anyone ever asks "why does it matter?"

Ask Omer Asik, why does it matter? Isn't the entire reason he wanted to leave Houston, so he had a chance to start somewhere?

The players who start the game should be finishing them in most instances. What is your reason to have someone start the game and not finish the game? If your only reason is because Asik will get fouled and isn't a good foul shooter, well they can't foul him in the final minutes of the 4th quarter now right? So will Asik be playing those minutes?

[KennaBrah]

Our longest win streak of the season was 5 games towards the end of March and then we followed it up with 8 straight losses. If we also factor in a a few close losses, which could have been wins, the team could have been close if not .500, and that's without the core. So IF we stay healthy, I feel we should be above .500 btw I appreciate the post greewe.

[NOLa.]

So basically this:

Amazing hahaha

[DRDJ1]

Interesting analyst
With my simple way of thinking I'm hoping the team continues to improve in a similar fashion as they have for the past 2 days
2013-14 New Orleans 34 - 48 .415 5th Southwest Division - - DNQ
2012-13 New Orleans 27 - 55 .329 5th Southwest Division - - DNQ
2011-12 * New Orleans 21 - 45 .318 5th Southwest Division - - DNQ
6 win improvement in AD's first year
7 win improvement in his second year
8 win improvement next year

So a record of 42-40 and a winning season would not be disappointing
Oh and that happens to be the same outcome you calculated!!

[voopster]

I picked 47 wins last year

Maybe I was early

[Eman5805]

I'm saying 51-48 wins.

[SaintPelican225]

48 wins......

[nikkoewan]

First of all, I really appreciate you trying to come up with a mathematical model for projecting the wins for the Pels.

The problem with this projections is the idea of DRTG (which subsequently affects win shares). DRTG is a team oriented statistic that masquerades as an individual one. Defense is already such a misunderstood concept. Defense as I, and probably most of us, believe is a TEAM work. It's the side of the floor where system matters more than on offense. It's why despite fielding a team of Jameer Nelson, Rashard Lewis, Hedo Turkoglu, JJ Redick, Rafer Alston etc (not exactly the best defenders), the 08-09 Magic ranked 1st in defensive rating - SVG designed a system where they take full advantage of Howard.

Lewis that year had a DRTG of 103. Even the oft-laughed at defense of Carlos Boozer (and his shouting and pointless finger pointing) registered DRTGs of 99, 95, 100 and 98 once he was acquired by the Bulls -- all would seem to be good numbers.

There is something in your methodology. If I may, I think a better way is (taking a cue from my editor on TBW, Rohan Cruyff) is to project offensive ratings, bring those offensive ratings back to the team level (which they should) and then try to "predict" a defensive rating for the TEAM as a whole. My methodology:

1. Project an ORTG for each player (based again on SPS and applied with a similar age curve. Same thing applies to Davis/Rivers as it did to yours).

2. Determine how much above/below is a player's individual ORTG from the league average ORTG. My assumption is that 107 is the league average ORTG (it usually falls around that generally area. Last year, it was 106.7).

3. I'll predict what percentage of the team's TOTAL possessions will that player use (different from USG%, which is team possessions used by player WHILE he was on the court). This is the hardest part to predict, IMO, because usage rates change when certain players play more/less. Example: Evans' USG% is 27.1 percent because Anderson/Jrue were not there to take some of those away from him. I decided to work backwards from the formula of USG%. i.e. you isolate the Scoring Possession of an individual player (and since everything else in the formula is given i.e. Team MP, Team ScPs, Player MP).

4. Multiply each ORTG differential to the total percentage of team's total possessions. Sum it up and we get what the team's ORTG will be above league average.

5. Next, I'll make a sort of "table" showing what our record will be based on how our defense performs.

Here are the results:





A couple of assumptions I made:

1. All 8 players you mentioned will play the total of 76 games on those minutes. The rest will be bucketed into the "Others"
2. I had to make an assumption about the collective statistics of players classified under "Others". My assumption: their weighted, age-adjusted ORTG is 103 (below average) and they'll use just 3.4 percent of the team's total possessions (derived from the assumption of a weighted USG of 10% for the players under this bucket).

As you can see, the offensive will be slightly better - +1.3 (compared to last year, which was +0.5). That takes us from just an average offensive team to just inside the Top 10. Not bad.

Defensively is where we're going to make a mark this season (and where the Asik signing and Holiday's return matters). If we become even just an average defensive team, we're looking at a 44-38 record -- a 15 win improvement (still no playoffs). For us to be in the 50+ win mark we either have to be a Top 8 AND average team in O or D (Top 8 O + Ave D <> Top 8 D + Ave O). How confident you think we'll get to that is up to you.

[Arda10]

Guys I followed Asik since he became a Pro in Turkey,30 Minutes is more than enough cause he cannot play more without gassing out.

[pelicanchamp]

Guys I followed Asik since he became a Pro in Turkey,30 Minutes is more than enough cause he cannot play more without gassing out.

He's gonna be fine.


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[pelicanchamp]

I think they'll win 49-55 games. We had REALLY bad luck last season with injuries and the roster wasn't as good as it is now.

With Asik being added our team will instantly become better on defense AND rebounding. This is not a matter of opinion.

Ryan Anderson and Jrue Holiday healthy will make this team way better. Remember, without Holiday we had Brian Roberts... Without Anderson we lost elite shooting and decent rebounding. Ryno on the court makes everything easier for Tyreke and company.

We have a stronger healthier Gordon and I believe he can and will have a better year overall. He will start over Reke. He will likely score 17-18ppg.

Russ Smith and Patric Young are intriguing. I think one of them will prove to be a steal. I'm actually leaning towards young but we'll see.

So basically, so far this team has made HUGE upgrades. 1. Asik at Center. 2. Jrue at PG, this counts because he missed so many games. 3. Anderson at PF, he missed so many games so this counts as well.

We will see a team that is very talented and can emerge if they stay healthy.
The best players are in this order: 1. Davis 2. Holiday 3. Gordon 4. Asik 5. Tyreke 6. Anderson 7. Jimmer (yes I believe this) 8. Russ Smith 9. Rivers 10. Ajinca 11. Young



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[Jabberwalker]

I wonder how many wins people here are expecting.
How many wins would be a disappointment to the people here?
What if we have a good season but don't make the playoffs?
To me, I wouldn't be surprised if we are .500 this season. That's a pretty big jump still but not enough to make the playoffs in the West. I wonder if that's what happens just how upset some people on here will be. To me, I think you have to give a young, low bball IQ team at least one full year with each other being healthy to figure it out. I can see us struggling and losing some games we shouldn't to start the year and hopefully start figuring it out by the end of the season.

[Schmide234]

Guys we need to completely start this thread over cause of the Jimmer signing. 60 wins by my calculations

[greewe]

...

As you can see, the offensive will be slightly better - +1.3 (compared to last year, which was +0.5). That takes us from just an average offensive team to just inside the Top 10. Not bad.

Defensively is where we're going to make a mark this season (and where the Asik signing and Holiday's return matters). If we become even just an average defensive team, we're looking at a 44-38 record -- a 15 win improvement (still no playoffs). For us to be in the 50+ win mark we either have to be a Top 8 AND average team in O or D (Top 8 O + Ave D <> Top 8 D + Ave O). How confident you think we'll get to that is up to you.

GREAT post. I really appreciate you taking the time to respond. It's going to take me a bit to digest the method, but intuitively, I agree with your results. I believe the team was squarely in the top 10 offensively before the injuries, and since we're assuming no injuries here, I think that a top 10 offense is a very reasonable expectation.

I also think that considering the addition of Asik, Holiday's return, and AD moving to his natural role of being an elite help defender rather than the primary rim protector, an average defense is a reasonable expectation as well. I think bringing the defense up to par will be a bigger challenge than having an elite offense--not only because the defense was SO bad last season, but also because with the addition/reintegration of so many parts and the complexity of Monty's system, I expect our defense will get out to a slow start. Our team definitely has the POTENTIAL to be an above average unit, but I do worry a bit about how long it will take before things begin to fire on all cylinders.

I'm cautiously optimistic about sneaking into the playoffs this season. I can't wait for October. Just over three months to go!

[nikkoewan]

GREAT post. I really appreciate you taking the time to respond. It's going to take me a bit to digest the method, but intuitively, I agree with your results. I believe the team was squarely in the top 10 offensively before the injuries, and since we're assuming no injuries here, I think that a top 10 offense is a very reasonable expectation.

I also think that considering the addition of Asik, Holiday's return, and AD moving to his natural role of being an elite help defender rather than the primary rim protector, an average defense is a reasonable expectation as well. I think bringing the defense up to par will be a bigger challenge than having an elite offense--not only because the defense was SO bad last season, but also because with the addition/reintegration of so many parts and the complexity of Monty's system, I expect our defense will get out to a slow start. Our team definitely has the POTENTIAL to be an above average unit, but I do worry a bit about how long it will take before things begin to fire on all cylinders.

I'm cautiously optimistic about sneaking into the playoffs this season. I can't wait for October. Just over three months to go!

I think the main confusion is what the "Team DRTG" means in the second picture. +3 means our defense was +3 above league average RTG (which is bad), +2 means its +2 above league average RTG, etc...

a -3 defense and a +1.3 offense results into a +4.3 efficiency differential which according to the commonly assumed linear regression between wins and differential (assumed to be y = 2.54x + 41 where y = wins, x = differential) will result into a 52 win season or a 63.4% W/L%.

Another thing that might confuse you: when I said individual DRTG was a team statistic masquerading as an individual one, what I meant was it's a statistic that's affected largely by how the team as a whole operates.

The formula for individual DRTG is closely intertwined with team DRTG. I think it's something like:

individual DRTG = team DRTG + 0.2* (some factor).

Ideally, DRTG should be a more individualistic statistic according to Dean Oliver (incorporating new tallied individual statistics like "forced shots missed" and "turnovers forced" and "forced team shot missed"). But since those are not adopted universally, they found a way to guesstimate it based on currently tallied box score statistics (like blocks, steals, team opponent FG%, opponent turnovers, etc...)

[Jared]

Hi, greewe. I love your post. However, I'm having a hard time with the math. How do you get the final 14-15 WS projection? I tried multiplying the projected 14-15 WS/48 with the projected 14-15 MPG, but that doesn't seem to work. For example, with Davis I got .218 x 38 = 8.284 — which is way less than 14.148. If you have time, I'd love to hear how it's done.

[Caffeinedisastr]

82-0.....

Then we win the #1 pick in the 2015 draft.....

and free cookies. Can't forget about the cookies.

[Caffeinedisastr]

So basically this:

I pee'd a little. lol.

Nice work. Now fetch me some paper towels.

[ItIsRynosTime]

So in both the nikkoewan and greewe chart, it is very clear that Ryan Anderson needs to be starting so he can get 34-38 minutes per game. 38 minutes is a huge difference from 30 minutes over the course of a season.

[Pantazis76]

So in both the nikkoewan and greewe chart, it is very clear that Ryan Anderson needs to be starting so he can get 34-38 minutes per game. 38 minutes is a huge difference from 30 minutes over the course of a season.

No it isn't, im not havin Asik come off the bench.

[pelicanchamp]

AD23 is going to shock the league. MVP. I think we will go 54-28. We will start sweeping teams. Adding Asik an improved superstar in Davis, and a healthy team will dramatically improve this team.


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[Perth_Hornet]

The answer is 42. Wins.