Note: This post is a crude way of projecting our wins for next season. Please don't take it too seriously!
Inspired by Nate Silver's win projections if teams added LeBron James, I decided to take a stab at projecting the Pelicans' wins using our new (nearly complete) roster.
I used a similar basic methodology as Silver, using WS/48 instead of SPM. Basically, 2014-2015 WS/48 were projected using SPS. It takes into account the last 3 years of data, and applies that to an aging curve. In the case of our rotation players without 3 years of experience (AD and Rivers), I used last year's WS/48 as a baseline before applying the aging curve, as I just can't see AD or Rivers significantly regressing from last season.
Finally, I used MM's minute projections. I assumed no injuries, because significant injuries make any sort of projection useless.
This particular model projects a 42-40 record this coming season. Obviously this is just a VERY crude method, and there are a thousand scenarios in which we beat this projection (another year of significant improvement from AD, for example), and a thousand in which we fail to meet this projection (injuries, for example).
Any thoughts? Does this seem accurate? Too low? Too high?