Just talked to a guy familiar with the Asik trade and he clarified the 1st round pick protection a little. It's similar to what we thought but the exact protection on the pick is as follows:
It's protected 1-3 and 20-30 until 2020. Then, it becomes a 2nd round pick. So, basically the first time it falls into the 4-19 range, the Rockets get it. If it never does, they get a 2nd rounder in 2021.
Based on last year, even if we are the 8th seed we'd likely keep the pick. The East has gotten deeper, but IMO if we keep the pick this year I don't think we'll ever have to give them a first round pick, as I think we all agree as AD continues to grow, we'll just get better and better therefore keeping the pick each year.