Love the guy, but the "Ryan Anderson Problem" is real?

[NMThreeMVP]

I don't know anything about his injury and whether or not Ryan Anderson will have lingering issues over the next few seasons, or further down the road in his career.

I don't even know if Ryan Anderson has been cursed and brings with him the unluckiest most miserable mojo of anyone in sports right now.

I have identified the Ryan Anderson problem as follows:

Ryan is currently underpaid. Everyone is looking for a player who can stretch the floor at this position and provide adequate rebounding and defense to not be a liability on the court. There's Ryan Anderson, Kevin Love, and Chris Bosh. Bosh is making $20m, Love is head that way, and Anderson is getting paid $8m.

I assume, though I imagine I could be completely wrong, that the Benson Family (I hope Tom is still around for awhile, but we could be talking about Gail and Rita) have no interest in going into the luxury tax. In this punitive environment, only 2 markets will ever really consider it (NY/L.A.).

Ryan's contact expires at the end of 15/16 season. Hopefully he will have outplayed his current contract and surely the market will dictate that he get paid north of $12m because of his rare skill set.

The Ryan Anderson problem, however is that at the end of 16/17 both Tyreke and Jrue will also hopefully have outplayed their contracts, which even now appear to be great bargains. Anthony Davis will be making north of $15m and escalating to start the 16/17 season.

I assume these guys love each other and will all want to stay together, but I also assume none of these guys will be looking to play for a discount considering the relative underpayment they'll have received prior.

Will the Pelicans be able to pay Anthony Davis, Jrue, Tyreke, and Ryno all market value beginning in 17/18? I know that seems like a ways away, but the Ryan Anderson problem is real because the Pelicans have to make a decision on Ryan Anderson before they make a decision on the other 3 guys. And if they're going to move him, the time to maximize his value will be at the trade deadline this coming season. What you can get in return if you decide you can't afford to keep him and the other 3, diminishes after February 2015.

The other part of the Ryan Anderson problem, is that as Anthony Davis develops and adds distance to his shot a la Chris Bosh, does Ryan Anderson become a luxury. And have the Pelicans figured out how to play both at the same time for significant minutes, or do they still really want to play a traditional Center along with the other 4 guys?

Like I said, I love Ryan Anderson, but I'm not sure I love the prospect of a multi year deal north of $12m per season for a guy who I believe (in DellMonty's ideal world) is a 6'10" version of Jamal Crawford off the bench and closing games.

..Therefore, the Ryan Anderson Problem is real.

[Ludiculous]

Somebody find me a gif of a mind being blown stat.

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[SeaLegs]

[NMThreeMVP]

Really, this is similar to the Thunder looking at Durant, Westbrook, Ibaka and Hardin, and deciding they could only afford to keep 3 of these guys.

The timing of when they traded Hardin, what they ultimately got for him, and whether they chose the right three guys is all debatable, but I haven't seen one analyst suggest they could have kept and paid all 4 as their core without going into the tax.

If the cost for Lance exceeds $12m, I wouldn't be surprised if Pacers let him walk. IMO, what they're able to do will be instructive because they have George making $17m, West making $12m, Hibbert making $15m, and Hill making $8m! They're only $6m below the luxury threshold before they even consider signing Lance!

[donato]

The real question is, will there be proper parking space for my hover car to games for the 17/18 season?

[BallSoHard]

Really, this is similar to the Thunder looking at Durant, Westbrook, Ibaka and Hardin, and deciding they could only afford to keep 3 of these guys.

The timing of when they traded Hardin, what they ultimately got for him, and whether they chose the right three guys is all debatable, but I haven't seen one analyst suggest they could have kept and paid all 4 as their core without going into the tax.

If the cost for Lance exceeds $12m, I wouldn't be surprised if Pacers let him walk. IMO, what they're able to do will be instructive because they have George making $17m, West making $12m, Hibbert making $15m, and Hill making $8m! They're only $6m below the luxury threshold before they even consider signing Lance!

Yeah not really. Those guys were all stars coming off of rookie deals. Our guys will be in their late 20's in the same spot. I don't really see the comparison or the problem. What the real problem would be, is keep moving key pieces to our team and never allowing them to gel because we're trying to be 1 step ahead imo. I think the the Thunder kept Harden for a few seasons until the lux tax became a lot to bare, then they'd actually have a shot to win it.

Furthermore, going into the tax is pretty much a given when it comes to competing for a championship and Benson has never NEVER stated he would not be willing to go into the tax, which max this whole thing flawed.

[NMThreeMVP]

The real question is, will there be proper parking space for my hover car to games for the 17/18 season?

I figured I'd get a few of these. But the start of the 17/18 season isn't so far off that you shouldn't plan for it. Especially when the first key decision point in that planning is less than 9 months away.

[BP225]

If all those guys are all out playing their contracts then you will go into the tax because you should be contending. I would expect/hope for 1 to earn a bigger payday and 2 to get modest raises. Also, I would expect the cap and tax lines to keep going up. LeBron and the evil Big 3 has restored interest in the league that I don't expect to fade for a while.

[NMThreeMVP]

Yeah not really. Those guys were all stars coming off of rookie deals. Our guys will be in their late 20's in the same spot. I don't really see the comparison or the problem. What the real problem would be, is keep moving key pieces to our team and never allowing them to gel because we're trying to be 1 step ahead imo. I think the the Thunder kept Harden for a few seasons until the lux tax became a lot to bare, then they'd actually have a shot to win it.

Our guys will be in their NBA primes. They'll be the same ages of Lebron, Bosh, Wade, DWill, CP3, Joe Johnson, Gasol, Carmelo, Dwight, Durant, Gay, Randolph, etc when they signed the largest contracts of their careers. If anything, our problem will be worse than if these were four guys coming off Rookie deals approaching restricted free agency. Our guys will be unrestricted and looking to get paid.

[BallSoHard]

Our guys will be in their NBA primes. They'll be the same ages of Lebron, Bosh, Wade, DWill, CP3, Joe Johnson, Gasol, Carmelo, Dwight, Durant, Gay, Randolph, etc when they signed the largest contracts of their careers. If anything, our problem will be worse than if these were four guys coming off Rookie deals approaching restricted free agency. Our guys will be unrestricted and looking to get paid.

All the guys you named were multiple time All Stars. none of our guys outside of AD will be. It doesn't add up.

[Mythrol]

I fully expect Benson to go in the luxury tax to try and win a ring.

[NMThreeMVP]

All the guys you named were multiple time All Stars. none of our guys outside of AD will be. It doesn't add up.

That's an interesting take.
Jrue has already been an All Star. You assume he's not going to make it again?
Tyreke could very easily make multiple All Star games at shooting guard. His only competition will be Hardin and Klay Thompson.
I'll give you Ryan Anderson isn't likely to make many All-Star games, but I'll also argue that the point isn't that these guys are going to all get max deals like the referenced list of players, but that good players in their mid 20's generally look to get paid. It's their first taste of unrestricted free agency, and if they're good, supply and demand usually dictates that they do get paid. But also, All Star appearances don't alone dictate who gets paid. Ryan Anderson, if he's everything we think he is, will command $12m a season (minimum), and there will be plenty of teams willing to bid that salary up there if they can get 90% of Loves production from Ryan at 75% of his salary.

Now all this may be moot if the Pelicans decide they can afford to pay $60m for four players and they can squeeze all four into those limitations. They'd still be below the tax and could add role players.

But my point is that Ryan Anderson may be used as the best 6th man in the league (a la Crawford) and is an exceptional player and value at $8.5 million, but if you're going to have to pay him more than $12 million for that role, you have to consider what you could get for him in return while his value is at the highest it will be. Which is in about 8 months if he's healthy.

[NMThreeMVP]

I fully expect Benson to go in the luxury tax to try and win a ring.

I don't.

The guy had a bill in the legislature shafting players on workers comp. He's still greedy. Not sure if he'd do it.

Maybe he would, but I wouldn't bet on it or guarantee it.

[Mythrol]

I don't.

The guy had a bill in the legislature shafting players on workers comp. He's still greedy. Not sure if he'd do it.

Maybe he would, but I wouldn't bet on it or guarantee it.

That was an ancillary expense. When it comes to actually on the field or court he spends the money.

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[BP225]

I don't.

The guy had a bill in the legislature shafting players on workers comp. He's still greedy. Not sure if he'd do it.

Maybe he would, but I wouldn't bet on it or guarantee it.

He wants to see them win before he dies, if he thought he had a legit contending team it seems like he'd do it. Taking money away from your wife and children just so you can see your team win before you die fits the greedy profile just fine.

[NMThreeMVP]

That was an ancillary expense. When it comes to actually on the field or court he spends the money.

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You don't think Benson, (Rita, Tom, or Gail) would view a luxury tax as ancillary expense?!

[Mythrol]

You don't think Benson, (Rita, Tom, or Gail) would view a luxury tax as ancillary expense?!

To keep a winning team together? No.

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[BallSoHard]

That's an interesting take.
Jrue has already been an All Star. You assume he's not going to make it again?
Tyreke could very easily make multiple All Star games at shooting guard. His only competition will be Hardin and Klay Thompson.
I'll give you Ryan Anderson isn't likely to make many All-Star games, but I'll also argue that the point isn't that these guys are going to all get max deals like the referenced list of players, but that good players in their mid 20's generally look to get paid. It's their first take of unrestricted free agency, and if they're good, supply and demand usually dictates that they do get paid. But also, All Star appearances don't alone dictate who gets paid. Ryan Anderson, if he's everything we think he is, will command $12m a season (minimum), and their will be plenty of teams willing to bid that salary up there if they can get 90% of Loves production from Ryan at 75% of his salary.

Now all this may be moot if the Pelicans decide they can afford to pay $60m for four players and they can squeeze all four into those limitations. They'd still be below the tax and could add role players.

But my point is that Ryan Anderson may be used as the best 6th man in the league (a la Crawford) and is an exceptional player and value at $8.5 million, but if you're going to have to pay him more than $12 million for that role, you have to consider what you could get for him in return while his value is at the highest it will be. Which is in about 8 months if he's healthy.

Why is it an interesting take? Feels more realistic than say for instance that we will have 4 max money guys. Let's break it down"

Jrue: I honestly don't think Jrue will go to another All star game within the next 3-4 years. With the emergence of Lillard, Chris Paul being in the west. That's 2 guard spots. throw in Russell Westbrook, Tony Parker, James Harden and Steph Curry in there, and I don't think he has a shot in hell. Let's remember, it's voted as a guard, not as a PG.

Reke: Highly doubtful he will have the marketing and is an inconsistent player. I don't think he's got much shot to make many All star appearances. Maybe 1 on a really down year? But let's look at all the names posted above and even with guys like Paul and Parker falling off considerably (which is no given due to all star voting, see:Kobe despite playing like 6 games this year) it seems more than unlikely.

Now on to your point about Ryno demanding that much money (12 a year). I whole heartedly disagree. When Ryno was 23, he was the same player and was probably paid more by us than the market dictated.


All that being said, let's look at an interesting point that i think you're missing. The cap went up 5 million this years (and thus the lux tax line raised). This was about a 7.5 % increase as apposed to projections of about 4.5 per year. If the cap continues to rise at that rate, is 12 million really that big of a hit compared to 9?

[BallSoHard]

He wants to see them win before he dies, if he thought he had a legit contending team it seems like he'd do it. Taking money away from your wife and children just so you can see your team win before you die fits the greedy profile just fine.

Oh, i just don't know how his family would survive without the extra couple of million dollars. Let's stick to the fact here.

[NMThreeMVP]

Even if the team is willing to approach the cap, I'd still expect the basketball people to have a decision to make regarding whether or not they can afford to pay their 2nd best PF north of $12m. That's also an issue. Do you approach the tax for a Ryno, or do you approach the tax for someone that plays Center or Small Forward.

Maybe calling it the "Ryan Anderson Problem" isn't the right wording. But it's definitely the "Ryan Anderson Situation".

Jrue is your starting PG. We know how he fits. Tyreke is our starting SG. Anthony Davis is our starting PF and Franchise Player. If you have to pay $45m for those players, all under 26... I think it's a no brainer.

But Ryan Anderson will be 28 when he's a Free Agent, has this neck thing, plays the same position as our franchise player, and IMO will command more than $12 million.

I'm not sure I want to complete my core with that guy. Maybe I do. All I'm saying is I'm not sure and the ideal time to decide and know is over the next 9 months.

Don't call it a problem if you don't want. But it's a "situation".

[PELICANSFAN]

Let's get serious. This is not an issue to worry about now. How different does this team look now than it did 3 years ago? Plenty can change in that period of time. It is not a "problem" at all that we have a talented player at a reasonable price.

[NMThreeMVP]

Let's get serious. This is not an issue to worry about now. How different does this team look now than it did 3 years ago? Plenty can change in that period of time. It is not a "problem" at all that we have a talented player at a reasonable price.

I completely disagree. And I'm not at all worried about this. That's not my point at all, that people should "worry".

But 2 years out is exactly the time that teams should start determining whether a guy who will be an unrestricted free agent is a part of the future. If you're a professional staff that gets paid to manage a team and think about these things, I absolutely expect you to give some thoughtful consideration to how a guy will fit into your future 2 years before his pending free agency because I believe the tipping point for value is 1.5 years out if you decide there is even a possibility you could go in a direction other than continuing the status quo with that player.

[NMThreeMVP]

Why is it an interesting take? Feels more realistic than say for instance that we will have 4 max money guys.

I bet the Pacers never thought they'd have 4 max players, but they've already got 2. And they've got West making $12m and Lance is an unrestricted free agent that could also get over $12m based on his play (maybe he won't because he's Lance).

I'd rather plan for the success of my players, than plan to be able to get them at discounts.

[BallSoHard]

I bet the Pacers never thought they'd have 4 max players, but they've already got 2. And they've got West making $12m and Lance is an unrestricted free agent that could also get over $12m based on his play (maybe he won't because he's Lance).

I'd rather plan for the success of my players, than plan to be able to get them at discounts.

Ok, so your plan is to move them as a preemptive strike to success. Seems brilliant.


Yeah man, the pacers seems to be in such a bind making 2 ECFs. If we are in that "situation" I'll gladly take that.

[PELICANSFAN]

I completely disagree. And I'm not at all worried about this. That's not my point at all, that people should "worry".

But 2 years out is exactly the time that teams should start determining whether a guy who will be an unrestricted free agent is a part of the future. If you're a professional staff that gets paid to manage a team and think about these things, I absolutely expect you to give some thoughtful consideration to how a guy will fit into your future 2 years before his pending free agency because I believe the tipping point for value is 1.5 years out if you decide there is even a possibility you could go in a direction other than continuing the status quo with that player.

I am sure they want to see how he comes back from injury before they make that decision. We do not even have a clue how the group plays together to determine who stays and goes. They may have an idea, but we may not even have the same coach or GM 2-3 years from now.