Projected Cap Increase and What It Means for the Pelicans

[MichaelMcNamara]

And let me address this whole -"A superstar doesn't attract good players in small markets" thing

1. You are talking about superstars. I am not.

2. Lebron got Larry Hughes to come to Cleveland. Pels got Peja with cap space in CP3 era. Magic got Rashard Lewis. Spurs never went after a big FA other than the one year they went after Jason Kidd and came real close to getting him. OKC never went after free agents.

3. Free agents gotta go somewhere. Every one does not go to LA, NY, or Chicago. Again, we are not talking about superstars. Kevin Love is nowhere in the thread.

4. Winning attracts players. Houston looked very enticing to Dwight this summer. Iggy was intrigued by Golden State. If AD leaps into the top 5 (which I expect), then this team wins. If this team wins, then you get players. Heck, you got players in FA (Ryno, Reke) without wins. Money, winning, and a superstar makes you one of the best FA destinations.

5. Superstars dont change teams that often in the first place. So saying, "CP3 or Durant or Lebron or Duncan didn't attract superstars "means almost nothing. How many superstars left via FA in that stretch? One or two? Bad argument.

6. Again, nobody is talking about superstars.

Okay, I am done.

[Mythrol]

The argument Davis will be top 5 is irrelevant. Next year will be harder to get FAs because no matter what there will be more teams that waited for next year and are going to compete for the top players. Then when they don't get Love or whoever they are going to over pay other players. Look what Dallas did when they missed out on Howard. Now imagine an extra 15% in cap room and 12-16 teams looking to buy. What is going to happen?

Stretching Gordon this summer adds one more year, yes, but it gets rid of him 1 year early too. It allows us to move forward this summer, build our team, and gives us an extra year of gelling together. There aren't as many players this summer, but there aren't as many teams competing for them either. The way I see it is this summer will be far more of a buyers market than next year.

[Mythrol]

You keep switching it. You said some guys want to win and that will be a factor in their decision making. I didn't say anything about Davis as a recruiting tool. I said that guys will see a real chance to win after what the Pels do next year.

You didn't?

"Right, here is the X Factor though- Anthony Davis.
How many of the teams that we will be competing with in the 2015 FA class will have a 22 year old MVP candidate to entice players.
If AD takes another leap and we go into that summer with 20 mil in cap room, no way we get shut out IMO
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk"

Sounds to me like you implied exactly that. I've noticed you tend to accuse people of switching their argument quite often, but it seems like you are just as likely to do it as the next person.

I think AD is a top 5 player next year and I think even money some players might choose us. However I don't see us being able to get a fair price next year and we would have to match a higher offer from another team. The west is absolutely stacked. The players have a ton of options as to where they could go and some might think the east is the easier path. That's the difference between how I view it and you. I don't think it's even money offers next year. This summer might be the last one before contracts really start to reflect the cap increase.

[MichaelMcNamara]

You didn't?

"Right, here is the X Factor though- Anthony Davis.
How many of the teams that we will be competing with in the 2015 FA class will have a 22 year old MVP candidate to entice players.
If AD takes another leap and we go into that summer with 20 mil in cap room, no way we get shut out IMO
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk"

Sounds to me like you implied exactly that. I've noticed you tend to accuse people of switching their argument quite often, but it seems like you are just as likely to do it as the next person.

I think AD is a top 5 player next year and I think even money some players might choose us. However I don't see us being able to get a fair price next year and we would have to match a higher offer from another team. The west is absolutely stacked. The players have a ton of options as to where they could go and some might think the east is the easier path. That's the difference between how I view it and you. I don't think it's even money offers next year. This summer might be the last one before contracts really start to reflect the cap increase.

I listed all my targets. Find me the superstar in that group. In fact, find me the guy who is definitely better than Reke and Ryno outside of maybe Gasol.

Fine, lets play it this way since it is always easy for the gadfly to just say no. Give me the teams that will be more enticing than the Pelicans in 2015 that will have money.

[saintsinNO]

I listed all my targets. Find me the superstar in that group. In fact, find me the guy who is definitely better than Reke and Ryno outside of maybe Gasol.

Fine, lets play it this way since it is always easy for the gadfly to just say no. Give me the teams that will be more enticing than the Pelicans in 2015 that will have money.

I have to agree with this. If we stay healthy and put together a good year next year, this will be a top tier destination. You have not only a good nucleus, but a very young one as well. Not to mention, the 'big names only go to big cities' thing has not played out all that well for all in the recent past. Dwight left LA, Melo and NY are a disaster. AD will still be on his rookie deal when he is a top 5 player, that doesn't happen too often. This is a prime spot IMO.

[MichaelMcNamara]

I guess I just don't understand where all the pessimism comes from, and yes I will call it pessimism. To me, pessimism is when the past shows you that in X situation, positive results are more likely to occur than negative ones - the pessimist assumes that the next time X occurs, something negative will happen.

Again, the past has shown that when Dell has money, he gets a very good player. Forget about the AD top 5 thing. Why the fear of the strikeout when there is absolutely nothing in the past to suggest it? Just so confusing to me.

And Mythol, I would be fine with stretching this year if we could get a good piece. I just don't see that as something the team would honestly consider this year. But if they would, then yes we agree. Heck, I wrote those articles - I want it more than anyone. But I just cant see the team eating 30 mil in dead money.

[tdcreator]

I think the better FA's will want to go to big markets or winning teams if the money is close. Our best bet is make some trades after the draft from teams that draft positions they already have. Milwaukee, Orlando, and Denver comes to mind.

[MichaelMcNamara]

I think the better FA's will want to go to big markets or winning teams if the money is close. Our best bet is make some trades after the draft from teams that draft positions they already have. Milwaukee, Orlando, and Denver comes to mind.

Again, those are vague words.

Tell me the exact teams that will have money that will be more enticing than this Pels team in 2015. There are 15 FA's that summer I would like, but I just want 5 or 6 teams more enticing.

[BallSoHard]

Again, the past has shown that when Dell has money, he gets a very good player. Forget about the AD top 5 thing. Why the fear of the strikeout when there is absolutely nothing in the past to suggest it? Just so confusing to me.

To be fair MM, Dell screwed up with Gordon. He's serviceable, but it was a mistake. I know hindsight is 20/20 and all but there is precedence for mistakes with big contracts with Dell even if i would have done the same thing at the same time.

[saintsinNO]

To be fair MM, Dell screwed up with Gordon. He's serviceable, but it was a mistake. I know hindsight is 20/20 and all but there is precedence for mistakes with big contracts with Dell even if i would have done the same thing at the same time.

That is 100% hindsight. Dell was forced into that, as EG was the 'big chip' in the CP3 deal. Imagine the backlash had he let him get away. EG hasn't worked out, but he was a young SG with a lot of potential, Dell did the right thing and was in a corner with that one. With pure FA's, he has been money.

[BallSoHard]

That is 100% hindsight. Dell was forced into that, as EG was the 'big chip' in the CP3 deal. Imagine the backlash had he let him get away. EG hasn't worked out, but he was a young SG with a lot of potential, Dell did the right thing and was in a corner with that one. With pure FA's, he has been money.

Yeah i know, and i agree (i think i supported it); but like it or not moves are judged in hindsight. But I'm pretty sure i said pretty much everything you said, so we agree mostly.

[MichaelMcNamara]

To be fair MM, Dell screwed up with Gordon. He's serviceable, but it was a mistake. I know hindsight is 20/20 and all but there is precedence for mistakes with big contracts with Dell even if i would have done the same thing at the same time.

Dont need hindsight, I said it at the time.

But I am talking about guys we signed from other teams

[tdcreator]

Lakers, Boston, Dallas, Knicks, and Houston all for various reasons of course but it was a vague statement cause we are only speculating. I'm not saying a free agent won't come here because I didn't think Howard would go to Houston.

[BallSoHard]

Dont need hindsight, I said it at the time.

But I am talking about guys we signed from other teams

Sure, and that's fair. Steemer is the only question mark but it was a VERY low risk.

[saintsinNO]

Sure, and that's fair. Steemer is the only question mark but it was a VERY low risk.

No matter what was spent on Steamer, that will always be a blemish on the resume lol.

[Mythrol]

To be fair my biggest issue isn't with trying to sign someone in 2015. It's with not trying to sign someone this summer and trying to go into next season with patchwork SFs. Get me PJ Tucker / Ariza or someone like that and I'm fine with trying to sign a bigger piece in 2015. There are benefits to this as it would give us a solid team now and help us determine exactly what kind of FA to go after in 2015.

As far as destinations w/ money in 2015, when looking at market and everything: Lakers, Boston, Knicks. Possibly Miami depending what LBJ does. Then you have smaller market teams who will be right there w/ a good bit of money. The Spurs (I'm expecting Duncan and Manu gone), The Wizards, Toronto, possibly Memphis, Sacremento will have Gay off the books, Cleveland. Then you have the rebuilding teams that will have tons of cash like Philly, Orlando, and more - all who might overpay by a good bit to get a player. There's really a lot of teams.

Combine that with us playing in the West and people's solution to SF as 1yr prove it deals with injured players and darn right that'd make me pessimistic. We would need roughly a 15 game jump just to make the playoffs and it's not like the West is getting easier next year. I'd muche rather go in with a more proven starter at SF . Especially if the goal is to make us more appealing for 2015.

Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk

[MichaelMcNamara]

I will just play gadfly here, since I rarely get the luxury.

Last time a good FA signed with Cleveland, Toronto, Sacto, Memphis, Philly, or Orlando? Last time Spurs broke the bank open for a FA? How about the Celtics, when was the last time they attracted a big FA? And the Lakers are in that same tough West without our good core.

None of them are likely to sign FA's either based on all that I guess. It looks like nobody will sign a FA in 2015. Knicks will just get all 15 of them.

[kclaboy504]

I will just play gadfly here, since I rarely get the luxury.

Last time a good FA signed with Cleveland, Toronto, Sacto, Memphis, Philly, or Orlando? Last time Spurs broke the bank open for a FA? How about the Celtics, when was the last time they attracted a big FA? And the Lakers are in that same tough West without our good core.

None of them are likely to sign FA's either based on all that I guess. It looks like nobody will sign a FA in 2015. Knicks will just get all 15 of them.

I completely agree.

[Mythrol]

I will just play gadfly here, since I rarely get the luxury.

Last time a good FA signed with Cleveland, Toronto, Sacto, Memphis, Philly, or Orlando? Last time Spurs broke the bank open for a FA? How about the Celtics, when was the last time they attracted a big FA? And the Lakers are in that same tough West without our good core.

None of them are likely to sign FA's either based on all that I guess. It looks like nobody will sign a FA in 2015. Knicks will just get all 15 of them.

That wasn't the question. You asked for a list. I gave you one. You disagree. I don't care. The point was that the competition next summer will be harder than this summer not that no player will sign with any team.

[da ThRONe]

I'll just say this as usual just reading through we aren't too far apart in theory.

MM point is we'll have more money and more targets the following off season. So just wait til then.

Mythrol point is let's be aggressive now and if we fail let's be aggressive later, but we are more likely to secure a FA this year than next. However only sign the upper talent.

My point is you need more than one quality player we have too many holes. So if we can get a decent FA this year only if at a fair price let's do so and we can still cap space to benefit from next year FA.

Saying we have cap space ignores the fact other teams will have cap space as well. I can't see Parsons, Green, Young, Jordan, Vucevic etc leaving their respective teams to come here for potentially a lesser role and similar roles. So that leaves us with guys like Chandler. Who iMO will be able to go to a Boston or LA and have IMO a similar chance at a title if they can go out an add one of the bigger names that will only be looking for a glamour team.

[greewe]

I'm of the opinion that long-term, we should spend our big money on an SF rather than a C.

Plucking from MM's article about the 2015 FA class, the best options are:

Jeff Green, Jimmy Butler, Kawhi Leonard, Thaddeus Young

The best of that bunch is Kawhi Leonard, who I expect the Spurs to extend in July. I'm not big on Thad Young (has played PF most of his career and isn't a great shooter) or Jeff Green (generally inconsistent on both ends of the floor). Jimmy Butler would be a FANTASTIC addition (great defender and shot 43% from the corner this season). He's an RFA so we'd have to overpay for him, but I would be fine with that.

Really though, after going through that list, I'm less bullish on the 2015 class than most. I think there's a guy in 2014 who is better than Jimmy Butler who could come at a similar price: Luol Deng. I think Iggy set the market for him with about 4/$48.

I know Deng is "old" (just turned 29), has played a lot of minutes in his career (24235 minutes; 35.8 MPG). However, compared to Iggy (just turned 30; 28035 minutes; 37.0 MPG) who we all wanted last offseason, he compares decently well. Deng is by all accounts a high character guy (just won the NBA's citizenship award) and would be a nice veteran presence in a locker room of young guys without real playoff experience.

If we stretch Gordon and the cap increases to $63.2 million, I think we will have about $15 million in cap space, counting 6 guys guaranteed (Tyreke, Jrue, Ryno, AD, Rivers, Anjica), 6 minimum holds, and Gordon's $6,082,593.80 of dead money. Assuming we give Deng $12 million, I think we would be able to bring back Withey, Miller, Pierre Jackson, maybe Babbitt, and Morrow with the room exception. Somebody who knows what they're talking about please correct me on all of this.

Moving foward, we would have:

Jrue/Rivers/Pierre
Tyreke/Morrow
Deng/Miller
AD/Ryno/Babbitt?
Anjica/Withey

I think we should go for Deng this offseason. If we can't get him, don't stretch Gordon, and go for Jimmy Butler next offseason.

[MichaelMcNamara]

Agree with going for Deng. I am curious to see what he gets. Two things: 1.) I still dont think there is anyway we stretch Gordon this year no matter how much I advocate for it. But lets say we move him for a smaller contract. I just dont know if we can get Deng. I think we get guys like him easier if we are coming off a 45-50 win season, as opposed to a 34 win season.

If we could get him, I would be all for it. I just think we will have better recruiting tools in 2015 and I dont thing we stretch Gordon this summer. It would be an unprecedented move.

[Mythrol]

Agree with going for Deng. I am curious to see what he gets. Two things: 1.) I still dont think there is anyway we stretch Gordon this year no matter how much I advocate for it. But lets say we move him for a smaller contract. I just dont know if we can get Deng. I think we get guys like him easier if we are coming off a 45-50 win season, as opposed to a 34 win season.

If we could get him, I would be all for it. I just think we will have better recruiting tools in 2015 and I dont thing we stretch Gordon this summer. It would be an unprecedented move.

Any chance the 76ers take Gordon and Pierre as a sweetener and just absorb him? Or maybe combine Gordon, Rivers, and Ajinca or something and take back Young? I know they have the cap and he would be a decent fit for a fast paced offense where he can just chunk as much as he wants.

Maybe kill 2 birds with 1 stone with getting Young?

[Mythrol]

I'll just say this as usual just reading through we aren't too far apart in theory.

MM point is we'll have more money and more targets the following off season. So just wait til then.

Mythrol point is let's be aggressive now and if we fail let's be aggressive later, but we are more likely to secure a FA this year than next. However only sign the upper talent.

My point is you need more than one quality player we have too many holes. So if we can get a decent FA this year only if at a fair price let's do so and we can still cap space to benefit from next year FA.

Saying we have cap space ignores the fact other teams will have cap space as well. I can't see Parsons, Green, Young, Jordan, Vucevic etc leaving their respective teams to come here for potentially a lesser role and similar roles. So that leaves us with guys like Chandler. Who iMO will be able to go to a Boston or LA and have IMO a similar chance at a title if they can go out an add one of the bigger names that will only be looking for a glamour team.

I actually agree almost exactly with you. I'd take Deng if we could get him but if not I'd still want to add a role player this year. I think we are 1 bigger piece and a bench player or two away still as well. At the least I'd want to add a SF this summer.

[greewe]

Agree with going for Deng. I am curious to see what he gets. Two things: 1.) I still dont think there is anyway we stretch Gordon this year no matter how much I advocate for it. But lets say we move him for a smaller contract. I just dont know if we can get Deng. I think we get guys like him easier if we are coming off a 45-50 win season, as opposed to a 34 win season.

If we could get him, I would be all for it. I just think we will have better recruiting tools in 2015 and I dont thing we stretch Gordon this summer. It would be an unprecedented move.

Just curious--who do you see as serious suitors for Deng?

I have Phoenix, Washington, and potentially Dallas and LAL.

I know stretching Gordon this offseason is a stretch (pun intended). But maybe Benson's feeling rich since the Pelicans are probably $200 million more valuable than when he bought the team...