Yesterday, Larry Coon projected a pretty massive cap increase for the next two years. Today, I take a look at how that could impact the Pelicans
http://www.bourbonstreetshots.com/20...-the-pelicans/
Thoughts?
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Yesterday, Larry Coon projected a pretty massive cap increase for the next two years. Today, I take a look at how that could impact the Pelicans
http://www.bourbonstreetshots.com/20...-the-pelicans/
Thoughts?
@mcnamara247
If Larry Coon is right above the cap increase, Jason Smith might be the casualty. It’s hard to imagine that the team would not pick up Jeff Withey’s option. If they do, that brings their cap room down to about $6.7 million.Bringing in Pierre Jackson and picking up Babbitt’s option would cut another 400K. Now, we are down to $6.3 million.
Why does both Babbit and P Jackson only count for 400K?
Babbit has a team option of 981,000 next season.
If the plan is (and should be) to save the room exception for Anthony Morrow, then it would be very hard to get a good free agent AND keep Smith. Even if Smith only wants $2-2.5 million, then the Pelicans would have less than what the teams with the MLE could offer to free agents. That would put them at a huge disadvantage, and probably limit the type of guy they could sign.
Couldn't they sign Smith, Miller & Aminu to one year deals with the cap space and then pay Morrow the room exception?
This would then leave the MLE for a guy like Jordan Hamilton or PJ Tucker or Ariza.
I'm sure this isn't possible but would like to know why.
Thanks
2014/15
Holiday/Rivers/Jackson
Gordon/Evans/Morrow
Hamilton or Tucker or Ariza/Aminu/Miller
Davis/Anderson/Babbit
Smith/Ajinca/Withey/Ely
Then you trade: Babbit, Jackson and Ely for Koufos.
Holiday/Rivers
Gordon/Evans/Morrow
Hamilton or Tucker or Ariza/Aminu/Miller
Davis/Anderson/Smith
Koufos/Ajinca/Withey
1. There are cap holds that take up cap space. Jackson's actually salary would be the same as the cap hold, so it doesn't take away any cap space. Babbitt's actual salary is 400K more than a cap hold for an empty spot, so - adding those two vs. having empty slots means a 400K reduction in your cap space.
2. You can't use all those exceptions. Your options are EITHER:
a) cap space and room exception
OR
b) not using cap space, but getting MLE and biannual
That is the whole point of the article. If cap didn't increase so much, team would have obviously done B, but now it is not so clear.
I guess like you indicated in the article.....it's probably better to wait till 2015/16 season to chase that 5th player to add to the core 4.
Yeah, it probably would be better to wait. But DD talks like he's hell-bent-for-leather to get it done this offseason. We'll see, obviously.
Can you blame him after this season? He has to be concerned about his future with this team. It's easy for us to "wait it out" our jobs aren't on the line. I've said it before I just can't see Dell waiting to make moves not after the money he spent bringing in Evans and the money and asset he spent bringing in Holiday. I think it's playoffs or the Ax for both he and Monty if they aren't let go this off season.Originally Posted by Tomdda
But if the team is healthy, is a big change needed to make the playoffs? Put it this way - Scenario A, you get Marvin Williams on a 3 or 4 year deal. Scenario B, you get someone like James Jones on a 1 yr deal, bring Miller back for 1 yr and play Morrow or Evans 15 mins a game at SF. Is scenario A a definite playoff team, while scenario B is not?
Whether this is a playoff team next year will depend on the guys already here (their growth and health), not the ones we add IMO
I really liked this article. It broke down economics to the point where even the standard novice could understand how a bump up in salary cap does not mean a whole hill of beans for our upward progression until next season. This offseason with that limited cap space (because as pointed out, it's a bump up, but not a savior to us til we get rid of Gordon) I look forward to Del finding that next Ayon. To finding that next Ajinca. To finding that next guy who has fallen off the map, but is given a second chance here, and can sink or swim ala Babbit. These guys carry very small price tags, and that is what we will have to deal with. He has done it every year that he has been here. Who Del will pick up next we have no idea. Rafa Arujo, Terrance Williams, Austin Daye, Daniel Orton, Jimmer, maybe some guy from Slovenia or Timbuktu. I am excited.
I also took the time to read more of your articles on BBS, very well done pieces all.
Last edited by UNO Gracias; 04-19-2014 at 10:58 AM.
If you Jimmer it, they will come.
I really enjoyed the article and the thought behind it. Completely agree with this one. Now to this post, I don't think scenario B is a playoff team. I just don't think you can compete in the uber competitive west with such a hole at SF. We're good, but not so good to make up for it.
I'm glad you brought up Marvin Williams, because I almost started a thread about him. I would really really like to get him.
MW has quietly become a very good player at only 27 years old. He's got 9 years of basketball experience now! He's a super sized SF at 6'9, 230 pounds. He runs the floor very well which would go great with Tyreke, Jrue and Davis on the court. And his three point shot and willingness to take it has greatly improved to about 36% last season on a fair sample size.
I think we all know Ariza won't be back here. We can't afford the Deng's of the world. But Marvin Williams is a true unrestricted free agent on a bad team. He's achievable and capable of plugging the gaping hole we have on this team. I believe stabilizing that position would completely change the outlook of this team.
Williams might be slightly better than he was in the past, but he is the exact type of player I think teams give the MLE to and live to regret. Literally every part of his game is average. Not one thing that stands out.
I think Dell can find average guys on the cheap. Go find the next Morrow or Ajinca. Those guys only got the minimum. A guy like Williams doesn't move the needle a smidge IMO. Guys in the 2015 FA class do. Go find a hungry guy to give you some minutes at the three the way you found Morrow this year. Play SF by committee and rely on the dominance of your other positions like the Clippers do. I just dont want to spend money on another average guy when you can save it and make a huge splash next year.
I don't totally disagree. Just depends on what angle you look at it. Marvin Williams is an NBA starting SF. I don't think you can compare him to specialists. Like Aminu. He also would be a cheap specialist, but you don't want him starting either. Just too many holes in their games.
If we're talking playoffs next season, I don't think we can head into next season with Miller or a similar player at SF. If you look at who's available, we could do a lot worse than Marvin Williams. And I'm not sure he's a full MLE cost, but we'll see.
Now if we're going to sit out another year, I get it and I'm good with that. That may be the best thing overall IF you can get rid of Gordon. I just don't honestly see this team sitting yet another year out and wasting another year of AD.
Yeah, that is my point
Scenario A: Marvin Williams for 3-4 years
Scenario B: Small forward by committee for year 1, target a much better player in 2015
I do scenario B every time. You can always get average players. When you have a chance to get a guy who can really make a difference, you do that. And Dell will have that chance in 2015. Free agents at just the SF and C positions include:
Marc Gasol, Tyson Chandler, Nikola Vucevic, Deandre Jordan, Omer Asik, Robin Lopez, Roy Hibbert, Kawhi Leonard, Chandler Parsons, Jeff Green, Thaddeus Young, Wilson Chandler, Tobias Harris, and Jimmy Butler.
I am with MM on this, if there isn't a sf that will move the needle go the cheap route and live to fight another day (the other day being the following offseason). There is no point in signing Williams when all he is going to do is take up cap space for several years, and not make a big enough impact. We have plenty of guys who don't make big impacts, we need a guy who will make an impact. Don't be in a hurry to blow your load, shop around and find a guy hungry to play for a 1 year "prove it" deal, and next season resign said player once he has proven it, or take that chunk of change and saddle up with a legit sf who doesn't just move the needle, but pushes the tempo.
(maxed out my use of cliches for the next 2 weeks)
I would like to poison pill a contract like the Rockets did with Lin and Asik, on Hibbert, Parsons, or Butler. Their respective teams can resign them, but in order to do that they will be cutting off their nose in spite of their face...or robbing Peter to pay Paul. The Bulls, Pacers, and Rockets all have a ton of talent that they need to pay, I think we could give any of those 3 a contract (and not blow our cap out of the water) and not have them contended.
Last edited by UNO Gracias; 04-19-2014 at 12:10 PM.
Guy like Brandon Rush would be interesting. Now, more than a year back from surgery. Before his injury, he was an athletic SF who could shoot and play good D. I am sure he is hungry. Give him a 1 yr prove it deal and see if he can perform. Or go for a vet and promise him a starters role for 1 year so he can rebuild his value - a guy like Granger or Butler. Heck, Shawn Marion for a year would be fine by me. Even Richard Jefferson or CJ Miles might take one year too. If you promise minutes, you can get a guy on a one year deal.
Honestly having watch a ton of Jazz games this season Williams at the right price is a nice pick up. I like scenario A better than B if we don't go crazy signing Williams. Williams is a capable defender, long, still so what athletic and can stretch the defense.
Of course the core 4 group will be expected to make up the bulk of production. However IMO it's not enough to make the playoff unless guys make significant improvements and/or are able to develop the chemisty missed due to injury this season quickly.
Sure the names on the 2015 FA list all look promising, but does Dell feel he has the job security to sit back and wait and hope? Personally I say no. And there's no guarentee we can get any of those guys. A bird in the hand with guys who are role players.
Last edited by da ThRONe; 04-19-2014 at 12:09 PM.
Wouldnt work for numerous reasons. I am debating whether or not to write two paragraphs to explain why. But trust me, it wouldn't and it is for different reasons for each guy. Could do it for a guy like Isiah Thomas this year, but not for one of the three you mentioned next year.
I'm very aware that these are just examples and the point is we could have max cap space. But I still remember not too long ago the thoughts of Lawson, Jrue Holiday, Teague, John Wall, Jennings, etc etc all up coming fee agents and we needed a PG. Then Holiday extends, Lawson extends, etc. and it never materialized.
Tyson this year is questionable much less in a couple. And most of these guys are restricted fee agents or would have to opt out from a player option. True unrestricted include Gasol, Jordan and Asik, all of which could get a ton more money from their current teams. Asik being the most likely to bolt, but again, a 30 year old big man that we're fighting the league for. You strike out and we're talking yet another losing season and AD on a max contract and others soon free agents.
Maybe waiting for that true difference maker is the only true way to a championship. But sometimes if you keep saying next year, it never comes.
The more I give it thought, the more I want to develop a winning culture and attain good affordable assets. You acquire enough good players and there are other ways to acquire true difference makers.
I guess all I'm really saying is there are pluses and minuses to both methods, and I'm behind Dell in whichever he feels he needs to do.
If I'm not mistaken the consensus seems to be the "needle movers" are already on this team. How many of those caliber guys can we really afford? Williams if he can be acquired for the right price is a guy who feels a need very well and understands his role.
But these are two different arguments, so lets not confuse them. One argument is that the team shouldn't wait, the other is that Dell can't personally afford to wait. Two totally different things.
While I agree that he might not be able to, I can't see the argument that Williams would be the better of the two scenarios. He can do all those things you listed, but he does them all at a very average clip. I mean, he is an avg 3-pt shooter, an avg defender, has avg athleticism for a SF, etc. Even if I only had a 30% chance of getting a big fish in 2015, I wouldnt jeapordize that for a guy like Williams. I can strike out in 2015, and there will be five Marvin Williams types sitting around as a consolation prize in the worst case scenario.
Exactly. I could see us getting a guy like the above listed (Brandon Rush...what a name from the past), and people here would be amazed Del signed them... but those guys needs us as much as we need them.
A move for a guy of (the above listed nature) teamed with our annual Aaron Gray/ Gustavo Ayon/ Brian Roberts/ Ajinca/ Babbit signing, and we will be in nice shape next season. Dare I say even top 6 seed in the West shape (if players continue to improve, and we don't have injuries).
That 2015-2016 FA period (should we rid our team of Gordon) could put us over the top to be where the Pacers are today.
I would sign Williams for less than he is willing to take. I would sign Williams for a Gerald Green type contract, and he would laugh, and so would I, and that would be the end of the negotiation. Williams performing on a crap Jazz team is like Vasquez performing on a crap Hornets team. Pass.
And why are you watching "a number" of Jazz games? Why put yourself through that...and then to add in watching the Pels this season...do you want to kill yourself?
MM, why wouldn't it work for one of the three mentioned. I get Parsons (that same offseason Asik comes off their books and with it his $15mil), and Hibbert (it's Hibbert...not Lance Stephenson, the Pacers will pay him), but why not Butler? The Bulls will be throwing cash at a number of players, and a contract a little north of their comfort spot and they might think...we can find another Butler. Also I would see Wilson Chandler as a great option. So many guys on that Nuggs team need to get paid, the competition for him would be tough, but if we have the cap space, he would be a great option.
I was under the impression that we were all smart enough to handle multiple talking points at once. LOL Really though I wasn't trying to make the discussion "murky" by bringing up different talking points just thought they were all relevant.
I edited my post so you didn't see the "bird in the hand" comment. I think if we have a chance at Williams(at close to market value) we shouldn't wait hoping to net bigger fish. Now if we have to go above market value by a decent amount I would agree with you 100%. Again we don't need Williams to be a star for this team just fill a role that's a lot of times is more valuable than bringing in a guy like Parsons, Butler, Harris, or Leonard who are probably going to be looking for a bigger role and a lot more money if they leave their respective teams.
Last edited by da ThRONe; 04-19-2014 at 12:24 PM.
Ok, let's throw out this scenario. Is there any reason to believe we couldn't sign Williams this year and still sign Asik next season? All while not sand bagging the 14/15 season? I don't see how that's really off the table.
If Marvin is around $6 million, it would appear we would have about 46-47 million committed in a year with over a $65 million cap(no Gordon).
Last edited by Spaniard; 04-19-2014 at 12:24 PM.
Del can not sign Williams and stand pat with this roster and make the playoffs next season, and have cap space to go after a better player in 2015-2016.
OR
Del can sign Williams and make the playoffs and while still having cap space (because the cap is projected to rise), not have enough to sign a player that could impact this team more than Williams.
or Del could get fired because we have a crap season with or without Williams.
I go with option 1.
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