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I said from day 1 I thought Rivers would be a perennial allstar and that has not changed. Like Skip Bayless said about him, he has that "it" factor. His demeanor has changed a lot since last year, heck even from the beginning of the year. Just watch his interviews his confidence has improved a lot. Rivers is special, just watch.
Woah. I've been a proponent of Rivers on here since before we drafted him but Curry? Rivers and Curry's games are nothing alike and aren't even close to the same level. I think Rivers will be a better player than most on here but seriously suggesting that somehow Austin's jumper goes from okay to one of the best of all time? If it were that easy to fix then why wouldn't everyone?
.......if healthyOriginally Posted by zakzak
@Jabberwalker
While I agree that Curry is an unlikely ceiling for him, we are talking about his peak. Go look at Manu's first two years in the league they have similar stats. Manu has 2 inches on him so he's slightly better Rebs. But Austin already shoots 3pts better than. Manu did then and finishes at the rim better. When I think of styles at his peak I see Potentially Manu. Then when you consider Manu was 25 his first year that gives River plenty of time. At his peak I could see Rivers maybe making 1 or 2 All Star games out of his entire career. Same with Manu 2 out of 11 years.
I don't even know what the heck you're talking about with unforced turnovers. . . Austin averaged 1.1 TOV a game. That's less than Manu and a ton of other players.
Contributor
Calm down? What, because if we're wrong our bodies will turn into stone?
Austin Rivers will break Micheal Jordan's career points total.
Oh no! How radical and out there! Somebody put me in an asylum!
I think you're joking but:
MJ scored 32,292 points in his career. If you subtract the 907 points Austin has scored thusfar and then assume he has 15 years playing 82 games a year he would have to average over 25 points a game to do that.
GOAT.
long career as decent bench option
never assume
A. He's obviously joking
B. So you're saying..there's a chance?
He's bigger than Bradley, no? And much better at generating fouls on the dribble drive. I guess I see Austin as having more offensive ability, not that Bradley is a bad player. I think you may have to basically throw out Austin's rookie year as a statistical baseline. If this was his rookie year, what would the assessment be? Last year he looked like a high school kid thrust into starter's minutes in the NBA. Not sure I've seen that happen to the degree it did to Rivers. He should have been on the pine for most of the season as a red shirt rookie. So I'm not sure I'd start my analysis from what he did the first half of last year subbing for Gordon.
Rivers does draw fouls at a higher rate but Bradley shoots better from everywhere on the floor. Rivers second season is somewhat similar to Bradley's 2nd season (both were 21), though agains, Bradley did shoot better.
I think some of the ceilings in this thread are just setting people up for severe disappointment. I personally cannot imagine any scenario in which he is a good starter for a good team, at any point in his career, let alone a Curry-ish Parker-ish, or Harden-ish player. Maybe he can go a little higher than Bradley, but not much IMO. And Bradley with better handles and a quicker first step would be fantastic for this team.
@mcnamara247
Bradley was a spot up shooter his 2nd season. Rivers shoots much better in spot up situations. He had to create more for his self and that's where the discrepancy in shooting percentage come from.
yeah, i think saying any young guy is going to be the next Parker or Hardin or Curry, top-20 players all when healthy, is setting the bar way too high and Rivers hasn't shown the promise of a Damian Lillard. Curious on the basis of your evaluation. What is forming the crust on his ceiling for you? Shooting mechanics? Athleticism? Decision making? Did anything about his play in the post-all star period or as a spot starter move the needle for you?
I wanted to write his ceiling is Avery Bradley.
But you had the quicker first step
This is a great comparison.
Bradley is averaging 1.4 assists for his career.
Their assist and TO rates are pretty close. And Rivers played 80% of his minutes at PG this year, Bradley never has come close to that.
No two players will ever be exactly the same, but there is a lot there IMO. Willing to hear better comparisons that are at least somewhat realistic. I like Rivers but I would prefer expectations are not crazy high.
Last edited by MichaelMcNamara; 04-18-2014 at 02:25 PM.
Ding ding ding. We have a winner. Tony Parker used to have a horrible midrange game. I hope Rivers mimics Parker's game. That's not to say he gets there but poor man's Tony Parker isn't bad.
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Last edited by lionelmandrake; 04-18-2014 at 02:50 PM.
Parker shot 42% from 16-23 feet his rookie year, dipped to 34.4% one year, then was between 38 and 46% every year.
Rivers has shot 28% in each of his first two years. He made 11 mid-range shots this year. 11. The optimistic person will note, however, that 5 came in the last three games.
But he is one of the worst ever for a guard in that area. Pointing to guys who went from slightly below average to above average is different than looking at where Rivers is right now. We all want to be optimistic because he is "our guy", but how would we project his future if he was a King or a Wizard, etc? Being as objective as possible, I can't go higher than fringe starter for his ceiling
I love Bradly who was the target of many of my trade machine ventures. If Austin can be Bradley I am super happy with him. Impactfullness on the game doesn't always mean a top 20 scorer in the league. If he becomes above average at getting to the basket, with average court vision, and average shooting, with above average defense then I think we've found a good player and should be happy about that.
I think offensively his impact could compare to jamaal crawford but with a skillset that looks more like TP. His early stats are very similar to crawford minus the shooting touch.
R.I.P. to HunnyB/FlyGirl
Poor guy should have stayed at Duke and learned the game on the appropriate level rather than rush to the NBA to make some quick cash, but that is his problem.
If you Jimmer it, they will come.
He is better now than he would be if he stayed at Duke for four years.
Debatable.
And his daddy is doc rivers, he don't need money. Had Austin stayed at duke for another year or two he would have come into the league a better rookie, yes. But would he be better than he is right now with two years of nba experience under his belt, I think not.
Debatable again.
I am not saying he only did it for the money, much like Jabari Parker said in his letter to CNNSI, his opportunity to make a living in the NBA is very short, so why waste time in college if time is money and your not being paid in college? Sure his dad has money, but do you want to be an adult living off of your parents? That's embarrassing.
He did what was smart at took the quick money, but in college as sure as you are to get injured, you are sure to be coached up for 4-5 years. After that your game is more well rounded and you still have your confidence because you aren't a boy playing amongst men. The extra time didn't kill Tim Duncan, David West, Andre Miller, etc. Their games got better because they were coached by the right people. Had Austin stayed at Duke he would have had the luxury of having Coach K, Woj, and others. On top of that you would be playing 4 years in a conference that is known for spitting out NBA talent, so the competition would be there all the time.
In the NBA he might play some minuets against a Wade, Curry, or Lillard, but by and large he is playing against scrubs and guys who are on their way out of the league. So the playing superior competition argument doesn't hold water with me as he would be facing the opponents best player every night in the college level.
In closing, I hope he learns a lot this offseason. I hope he stays with his dad and learns the finer points, but he is a broken man. Looking more and more like one of the hundreds of can't miss young talents that this league eats up and spits out.
Last edited by UNO Gracias; 04-18-2014 at 05:22 PM.
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