A Guide to the Offseason
I get a lot of the same questions regarding this offseason, so I decided to do a piece answering all of them while also throwing out some names that Dell might target and more. Enjoy
Here are some snippets:
1. So How Much Cap Room Will the Pelicans Have This Summer?
I start off with the most important and most complex question of the bunch. How much do they have? Well, there is no fixed amount, but this question can be answered. The Pelicans have seven guys on the roster with guaranteed contracts next year – Anthony Davis, Tyreke Evans, Jrue Holiday, Ryan Anderson, Eric Gordon, Austin Rivers, and Alexis Ajinca. Those seven contracts count for 54,088,513 against the cap. The projected cap for next season is $62.1 million, meaning that after cap holds, the Pelicans can have about $6 million dollars in cap room next summer if they renounce everyone else on the roster.
In all likelihood, however, the Pelicans will exercise their options on Jeff Withey and Luke Babbitt, which adds $1,764,645 to the books, which brings the cap room down to about $5.5 million after cap holds. Brian Roberts has a qualifying offer of $1.1 million dollars, and extending that to him would bring the Pelicans to about $5 million in cap room. This is where the Pelicans will have two options:
1. Keep Al-Farouq Aminu and/or Jason Smith’s cap holds on the books and have the full MLE to use on a free agent
OR
2. Renounce the rights to Aminu and Smith and have $5 million in cap room PLUS the room level exception
The full MLE gives you the ability to sign one or multiple players into a slot that averages approximately $5 million a year for up to 4 years. The room level exception allows you to sign a player to a contract up to two years in length for a little less than $2.7 million dollars a year. So, either way, the Pelicans can sign a free agent to a 4 year/20-22 million dollar contract AND either bring back Smith (or Aminu) or sign another free agent for about half of that.
Both Smith and Aminu have cap holds that can push the team over the salary cap, which is what you need to qualify for the full MLE. Of the two, you would have to think that Smith is more likely to return, though Demps seems to have an irrational love for Al-Farouq. In fact, he can bring both guys back at salaries similar to what they make this year and use the full MLE and still be well under the luxury tax. Heck, bring Morrow back too. This might be the best way to maximize their resources, in fact.
Marvin Williams - Marvin Williams has had a renaissance of sorts this season, as his eFG% is a at a career high 54.9%, due in large part to the fact that his 3-point rate is insanely high (44.2%). His defensive rebounding is the highest it has ever been, and his turnover rate is a career low. Basically, he has transformed himself into a 3-and-D small forward who can occasionally play the 4, and has looked good doing it.
It seems like Williams has been in the league forever, but he is actually one of the youngest guys on this list (27 years young). He likes the wing three and the straight on three, and is surprisingly ineffective from the corners. This might be an issue, as Ryno likes to get his three’s from those areas, but then again, Williams could essentially play the Ryno role in the first unit, and exit when Anderson comes off the bench.
Defensively, he has lost a half a step, but he is still a smart defender and has the ability to guard both forward positions. He also is, historically, a guy who does not foul much and can get you the occasional block or steal. He has length and size, which are two requirements for wing defenders in Monty’s system, so in a lot of ways he would be a good fit.
Trevor Ariza - Well here’s a blast from the past. Like Williams, Ariza is having arguably his best season in years, putting up 14 points in just 11 shots due in large part to an incredibly high 52.6% 3-point rate. Nearly 35% of Ariza’s shots this year have been catch-and-shoot jumpers, where he is 42% from three in such situations. He is even more deadly in transition, shooting 46% from three while averaging 1.3 points per possession.
Defensively, Ariza has been good in both pick and roll defense and isolation defense, but he is not the elite perimeter defender he was once billed as back with the Lakers. The questions with Ariza are two-fold:
1. Is his performance a result of this being a contract year?
2. Would he return to New Orleans after the way he was treated in the 2011-12 season?
Number 2 is easier to answer than #1, as money always tends to talk in this business. But the first question is one that the Pelicans, and any other suitor, should be asking themselves. Ariza is having the best season of his career since 2008-09. What was 2008-09 for Ariza? It was his last contract year. Houston gave him a 5 year deal after his breakout season with the Lakers and he immediately regressed. Will the same happen next year?To read the rest: http://www.bourbonstreetshots.com/20...possibilities/8. Will Pierre Jackson be a Pelican next season?
Our own Nick Lewellen recently did a great piece on Jackson and his future with the Pelicans, but I want to look at this from a financial perspective. If signed, Jackson figures to make about $500,000 next season, which is about half of what Brian Roberts qualifying offer happens to be. To take it a step further, he will only make about a fifth of what Austin Rivers will make next year, and the same probably goes for Anthony Morrow if he is re-signed.
When you look at the Pelicans list of guards – Holiday, Evans, Gordon, Morrow, Rivers, Roberts, and Jackson – it is hard to imagine that more than five of those guys are on the roster next season. The question with Jackson has always been, where does he fit if you already have so many guys who need the ball in their hand to be effective?
The Pelicans seem to have two choices here:
1. Place him on the roster and bring him along very slowly, similar to the way Dallas used JJ Barea early in his career. Barea barely played his first season and only got about 10 minutes per game his second season, as a 5th guard. But by his third season, he was ready, and was a fixture in the rotations.
2. Move him for a rotational piece at a position of greater need. Maybe you get a SF with the MLE and so you move him and somebody like Jeff Withey for a backup big man like Kosta Koufos or T. Mosgov. Something along those lines. Or perhaps you can turn Jackson into a future pick.
With Jackson, it seems to be a bad fit for this roster, unless Dell Demps is able to move 2-3 guys who need the ball in their hands to be successful. So, more likely than not, Jackson is not on the roster next season and if he is, expect little to no minutes for him.
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Originally Posted by AD23forMVP
