Is the Tank Back

[MichaelMcNamara]

Fair enough, I honestly see us giving the Sixers number six or seven, which would suck but here's 'hoping.'

Personally, I don't care what pick the Sixers get; never have. You gave up what you gave up at the time. The Sixers will take who they take. If both bust, that doesn't make the trade any better. All of that is on them.

I didn't like anybody sitting on the board at 6 last year, and there were only 3 or 4 sure things in '14, so I liked the trade then and I like it now. Terrible that Jrue got injured this year, but I still believe he gives this team more value over the next 8-10 years than anybody from that draft + a player outside of what I now deem the Big 3 would.

So, I don't care if we hand them the 7th pick or the 12th pick. I only care if we keep the pick or not. What Philly does with it means nothing to me. We will never know what the alternative world would have looked like if we didn't make the trade. Maybe Ryno stays healthy AND AD makes this leap. We signed a decent SF and we are .500 right now, on pace for the 14th pick. I have no idea, so I don't factor it in. Do we keep the pick or don't we? Only thing I care about.

[ItIsRynosTime]

"Very real possibility" to me means 20% OR higher. I would put the odds at finishing bottom 5 record wise around 1 or 2%. Again, 2 of those 3 losses you cited were on the road. Yes, they are playing bad right now, but even if they lost every single road game from here on out, they would have to go 3-11 at home to have a chance at the 5th worst record in the league.

They are 13-14 at home this year. That would be a HUGE dropoff. So, no, I don't think that is even remotely close to a "very real possibility". 7th worst record? Very real possibility. 5th worse - 1 in a hundred chance.

So you're not a math guy, it's okay! I would bet you they are between 10-22% to finish bottom 5.

If you were a sportsbook would you offer like $9,900 to $100 bet that the Pelicans don't finish bottom 5?

[MichaelMcNamara]

So you're not a math guy, it's okay! I would bet you they are between 10-22% to finish bottom 5.

If you were a sportsbook would you offer like $9900 to $100 bet that the Pelicans don't finish bottom 5?

Not exactly how Sports Books do their prop bets, but I won't get into that.

Even the low end of your range - 10% is crazy high to me. But this will all be moot when the team wins three or four over the next few weeks and people say, "Yeah, the tank is dead, but it HAD a chance."

That contingency is in a no lose situation. When the tank doesn't happen, they can still say it was possible - something I can not disprove because I do not have access to all the other universes. If, by some miracle it does happen, they get to play the 'I told you so' card.

How about this - The Pelicans WILL NOT finish with a bottom 5 record. In this universe. Plain and simple.

[ItIsRynosTime]

Not exactly how Sports Books do their prop bets, but I won't get into that.

Even the low end of your range - 10% is crazy high to me. But this will all be moot when the team wins three or four over the next few weeks and people say, "Yeah, the tank is dead, but it HAD a chance."

That contingency is in a no lose situation. When the tank doesn't happen, they can still say it was possible - something I can not disprove because I do not have access to all the other universes. If, by some miracle it does happen, they get to play the 'I told you so' card.

How about this - The Pelicans WILL NOT finish with a bottom 5 record. In this universe. Plain and simple.

Does your 1-2% include not trying to win games, injuries, variance, and everything else?

I would bet my money if I was getting 9:1 which means you need to win 10% to break even.

Now if you would like to give me 39 to 1 meaning I need to win 2.5% to break even, I would like to wager all the cash I have on hand.

I know it's not as high as 20%, I don't know why I listed that high of a range.

[nolaslim213]

Does your 1-2% include not trying to win games, injuries, variance, and everything else?

I would bet my money if I was getting 9:1 which means you need to win 10% to break even.

Now if you would like to give me 39 to 1 meaning I need to win 2.5% to break even, I would like to wager all the cash I have on hand.

I know it's not as high as 20%, I don't know why I listed that high of a range.

It's funny for all of us to joke about not trying to win and tanking, but all of us SHOULD know that no professional team would try to lose intentionally - at least not the players and coaches. You bet your butt that Demps is hoping we lose out, but Monty and the team are fighting for their jobs. They aren't tanking on purpose.

[speedyG]

It's funny for all of us to joke about not trying to win and tanking, but all of us SHOULD know that no professional team would try to lose intentionally - at least not the players and coaches. You bet your butt that Demps is hoping we lose out, but Monty and the team are fighting for their jobs. They aren't tanking on purpose.

I would think that too..but then who is in charge of holding guys out with fake injuries or "sickness"?

[Coughka]

Other than the weird invocation of modal logic in this thread, I agree it would be exceedingly difficult to get to the bottom 5.

A loss tonight against the Lakers would be pretty significant, however. I say we finish with the 6th-7th worst record and pray for that Top 3 draw.

[kclaboy504]

Other than the weird invocation of modal logic in this thread, I agree it would be exceedingly difficult to get to the bottom 5.

A loss tonight against the Lakers would be pretty significant, however. I say we finish with the 6th-7th worst record and pray for that Top 3 draw.

Very realistic IMO. Not sure where we finish cause that'd depend on every other team and I'm not even about to try and predict all the other teams. Looking at our schedule and our performance on the court. I just don't see this team winning more than 4-5 games the rest of the year. I listed this game here in l.a. As a win in my rest of the season prediction thread. So let's see if we can pull this one out.

[UNO Gracias]

I would say tanking is off the table had I not read the comments made by Brian Colangelo at the Sloan Conf. Last week. Tanking is very real, and he wanted his coach to go with it, but he admits that the coach was more interested in winning, while he had an eye towards drafting Davis.

[MichaelMcNamara]

This thread will be dead by next week, but I admit that it was a fun debate while it lasted!

[UNO Gracias]

We're so stupid we can't even tank correctly.

[saintsinNO]

This thread will be dead by next week, but I admit that it was a fun debate while it lasted!

Lol, ok. Another hindsight affirmation. Earlier today it was 2-3 weeks, but now that you see them up on a team we are competing with for bottom five it's dead in a week. You're right! You called it!

[FlyGirl]

Should Pelicans lose big to protect top 5 pick? -- Gerry V podcast

http://www.nola.com/sports/gerryv/in..._river_default

[nikkoewan]

http://www.thebirdwrites.com/2014/3/...nd-probability

Just to end the debate on what the actual number is