Our first ‘Missing Piece’ of the season introduced all of our possible options and handicapped the field, so now that we are halfway through the season, I felt it was right to revisit and re-handicap the field. Things are a little more complicated this time around, but in a good way. At the beginning of the season, it appeared that the Hornets had massive holes at the point guard and small forward positions, but Vasquez and Aminu have been solid starters as of late, and they are making a case that they are the long-term answers at those positions. In other words- Maybe ‘The Missing Piece’ isn’t missing, maybe they are already here.
But even if Dell Demps picks up all the player options this summer and gives Aminu a reasonable contract, the Hornets will still go into the offseason with over $10 million dollars in salary cap space and, most likely, a lottery pick. Prior to the season, Dell Demps and Monty Williams both said that they would likely add one more significant piece before the 2013-14 season and then move forward with that group. There is no reason to believe that a couple of months of solid play by two young, but limited young vets will change their thought process. Additions and/or upgrades will be made this summer (if not sooner) and with that in mind, let’s take a look at the candidates.
The Favorites
Brandon Jennings, PG Milwaukee Bucks (Age: 23)
Contract Status: Restricted FA in 2013 | Max Hornets Could Offer: 4 years/$58 million | Expected Cost: 11-14.5 million per year
The question you have to ask yourself with Jennings is simple: Can he be an efficient scorer if he was a third or fourth option as opposed to a first option? The fact of the matter is that Jennings has been extremely inconsistent in Milwaukee. At times, he looks like an All-Star and at other times he looks like a reckless chucker. But when you look back at his three and a half years with the Bucks, who is the best offensive player he has played with? Monte Ellis? Andrew Bogut? In his first two seasons, John Salmons was the Bucks best weapon outside of Jennings, and since then it has been a steady stream of also rans helping him try to carry the load.
Now imagine he comes to a team with Eric Gordon splitting the playmaking responsibilities, Ryan Anderson giving him space to operate and Anthony Davis finishing everything at the rim. Is it likely that we see a more consistent Brandon Jennings at that point? If Dell Demps answers yes, then no price would be too high for Jennings. The beauty of having Anthony Davis and Ryan Anderson on such cheap, long term deals is that you can afford to slightly overpay someone else and it wont kill your cap. Even if the Hornets have to pay Jennings the max, they will have their Big Four tied up for just $45 million over the next three years. That gives them $25 million dollars to fill out the roster without getting into the luxury tax. With Smith, Rivers, and Lopez on great deals and the 2013 1st rounder on a rookie scale wage, you would still have plenty of money to bring in a small forward (or re-sign Aminu) and add additional depth.
Eric Bledsoe, PG, Los Angeles Clippers (Age: 23)
Contract Status: $2.63 million in ’13, RFA in 2014 | Expected Cost: Greivis Vasquez or Robin Lopez and 2013 1st round pick
Bledsoe is a huge risk/reward proposition at this point. The advanced numbers tell you that he is an elite point guard who just happens to be stuck beyond the best point guard in the world. He projects as a fantastic player if he were to get starter’s minutes, but can we really truly know how he would fare over an 82 game season as a starting point guard just by looking at what he has done as a backup and spot starter and projecting his Per-36 minutes numbers? Won’t he have to play the game differently if he is getting double the minutes? Perhaps he will have to pace himself more. Perhaps moving to the head of the opposing teams’ scouting report has an effect or perhaps becoming the leader of a team will be too big of a burden.
But what if we have only seen the tip of the iceburg. What if it is a James Harden situation where playing with all that talent was actually limiting him and he just takes off when given the reigns? One thing we know for sure is that his defense translates. He is an amazing on-ball defender and can jump passing lanes with the best of them. He is also a great rebounder for the point guard position and an excellent finisher in transition. But if that is where the positives end and he never really develops the ability to run the point or score effectively in the half court, would he be worth both Greivis Vasquez and a likely top 10-12 pick? Probably not. Again, it is about how you project a young point guard in a brand new situation moving forward. But that is why Dell is paid the big bucks.
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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara
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