The Missing Piece: Plugging in Rudy Gay

[MichaelMcNamara]

Just last week, Ryan Schwan stated that this weekly feature is one of his favorite reads on the site. I set out to change that today by taking time to project how our future would look if we inserted Rudy Gay into our small forward spot. According to recent rumors, the Grizzlies are listening to offers for Rudy Gay for a variety of reasons, the primary one being financial as Gay makes 16.4 million this year and an additional 37 million over the next two seasons. If Memphis doesn't move Gay, they are looking at a luxury tax bill of about 4 million dollars on top of their 74 million dollar payroll, but if they could move Gay for somebody(s) who makes 4-5 million dollars less, then they not only save that money and avoid paying the tax, but they will also get a rebate check of sorts from the teams over the luxury tax, which figures to be around 4 million dollars this year. Long story short, moving Gay could save Memphis about $12 million this year.

That is the primary reason they are looking at making the move. Other factors include future cap flexibility, as they are already projected to be over the luxury tax next year and that is without the added salaries of free agents they sign, draft picks, and taking care of their own free agents like Tony Allen. Allen is a fan and coaches favorite in Memphis and having Gay on the payroll makes it nearly impossible to match the offers he will likely get in free agency. You also can't overlook the fact that former ESPN writer John Hollinger having a voice in the Memphis front office is a major factor in this decision. Hollinger invented the stat PER and Rudy Gay only has an average PER (15.4), yet he is one of the highest paid players in the NBA.

As far as the Hornets making a trade for Gay this season, it is practically impossible without giving up Anthony Davis, Ryan Anderson, or Eric Gordon because of the money Gay commands. For the trade to work per league rules, the Hornets would have to ship out over $13 million in salary and that can't be done without either gutting the entire team or giving up one of the big three. Ironically, this trade could be done if the Hornets still had Hakim Warrick's expiring contract, but Dell got rid of that chip in a move I still don't fully understand. A deal that centered around Lopez and our protected 1st going to Philly, Thaddeus Young and pieces going to Memphis, and Gay coming here would be possible if we just had another 3-4 million dollars in salary to make the figures work. Memphis would get a young vet with a higher PER and a cheaper salary to replace Gay, Philly would get a big who gives them Bynum insurance and a high pick, and the Hornets would get a possible missing piece plus lesser picks and backups for their squad. But alas, it is not to be this year because we cannot make the salaries match.

The more likely scenario would be that Memphis holds on to Gay this year and tries to make one last run with this squad. If they are one and done in the playoffs, they have to consider moving Gay or Randolph because it would not be wise to become repeat luxury tax offenders if all that spending that money gets you is an early exit from the playoffs. Of the two players, Gay would fetch more in a trade because he is still relatively young (26) and more teams in the NBA have a need for a small forward at this point. Memphis could look to move Gay straight up for our pick in the 2013 draft, and if the Hornets land outside of the range where they could realistically get Shabazz Muhammad (top-3), then it is something they should at least consider. If they do, here is what they would be looking at:

Financial Fit

Gay makes 17.9 million next season. If the Hornets pick up their player options on Lopez, Thomas, Roberts, Miller, and Smith they will be right around $43.5 million in payroll. The cap is projected to be somewhere between $58 and $60 million, meaning that the Hornets would have to decline some of those options or move 1-2 of those guys in a trade to get Gay. The most likely scenario is that they could decline Smith's deal, which is not guaranteed, make the trade for Gay and then use one of their exceptions to give Smith a long term deal. Since Thomas, Miller, and Roberts are essentially on minimum contracts, cutting them wouldn't give the Hornets much space because there would still be a roster hold for those spots that would account for nearly $500,000. Declining Lopez and trying to re-sign him would probably not be wise, as he would likely command more than the two years and ten million he is currently owed on the free agent market. Declining Smith's contract, with the understanding that they will give him a long term one in July would probably be the best way to go and would give the Hornets a payroll of between $63-$66 million next season, which would be well under the luxury tax.

Moving forward, the Hornets books would be pretty tight again for the following year but they would not risk losing any current players by bringing on Gay, nor would they be at risk to go over the luxury tax. Essentially, they would have a two year window with a starting lineup of Vasquez/Gordon/Gay/Davis/Lopez with Roberts/Rivers/Miller/Anderson/Smith coming off the bench. After those two seasons, Gay, Lopez, and Vasquez would be free agents and Gordon would have a player option on his contract where he could choose to become an unrestricted free agent. Davis and Anderson would still be under their current contracts but would likely be due hefty raises the following year, making it unlikely that the Hornets could keep that entire core together if it performed well in the two years leading up to that summer.

To read the entire article, click here

[BP225]

this trade could be done if the Hornets still had Hakim Warrick's expiring contract, but Dell got rid of that chip in a move I still don't fully understand.

It wasn't the Warrick dump it was the Carroll buyout that made that trade chip disappear. The question is did Demps tell Loomis "I don't see any potential trades coming up and I can save the team money with a good will gesture" or did Benson say "Sean Payton is about to ask for a raise, be a good red headed step child and give me your lunch money." Demps is an advanced stats guy too, so he may not have had any interest in Rudy Gay, who was really the only likely big money player to hit the market. As much as we've talked about guys like Jennings and Iggy, stealing them away in FA is really the only way that would happen. Teams don't trade stars until they are absolutely forced too.

[Inner_GI]

Rudy Gay is not the answer. I'd be extremely disappointed if the team went the route of trading for Rudy Gay. Actually I'd be pretty disappointed if the team traded Anderson, Davis, or Lopez. I'd entertain offers for Gordon and our 1st round pick (top 5 protected).

[MichaelMcNamara]

It wasn't the Warrick dump it was the Carroll buyout that made that trade chip disappear. The question is did Demps tell Loomis "I don't see any potential trades coming up and I can save the team money with a good will gesture" or did Benson say "Sean Payton is about to ask for a raise, be a good red headed step child and give me your lunch money." Demps is an advanced stats guy too, so he may not have had any interest in Rudy Gay, who was really the only likely big money player to hit the market. As much as we've talked about guys like Jennings and Iggy, stealing them away in FA is really the only way that would happen. Teams don't trade stars until they are absolutely forced too.

It cant be the former. It just cant. How can you say in November that there is no possible chance that between now and February that a trade will present itself that will require some expirings to balance the salaries out.

It has to be the latter. Dell put an extra $500,000 in the owners pocket and limited our options for this season. We have asked Dell on several occassions and given him opportunities to tell us this wasn't the case, but he has not done so. To limit options to put a half a million in somebody's pocket who paid 338 million to buy the franchise is disappointing, especially if it costs us the opportunity to take advantage of a deal we like or it forces us to put in a quality player like Lopez or Smith to make the money work

[Ogden Park]

Very good article, Mike.

I realize you wrote it to be more or less neutral on the possibility, but I have to assume you are very much against this move.

This would be an absolutely toxic move for the franchise right now. Rudy Gay is a "good" player being paid as an "elite" player, and really nothing is worse for a team's cap situation than this. He is, for all intents and purposes, BURNING $5-$7 million in cap space (he is worth $10-$12 mil or so based on production) for whatever team that has him for the next 2 and a half seasons. His production is so out of line with his contract, and with such a tight cap situation it is a death knell for teams like us. His contract is easily a top 5 worst in the league because of how severely it limits flexibility versus how relatively little he produces on the court for the price. I really cannot overstate what a horrible move this would be for our situation over the next 2 years.

I called this when Memphis re-signed him that they killed any chance they had of winning a title as long as they have him. You simply cannot afford to pay B level guys that kinda money, unless you are willing to go DEEP into luxury tax territory, which only the Lakers, Nets and Knicks seem willing to do. This was so predictable its hilarious to me.

[THRILLHOUSE]

I called this when Memphis re-signed him that they killed any chance they had of winning a title as long as they have him. You simply cannot afford to pay B level guys that kinda money, unless you are willing to go DEEP into luxury tax territory

We're going to have to overpay those types of very good players to come here, though. Plus we've got AD and Ryno here for the next 3 seasons on great deals, plus Lopez for the next two being underpaid. I definitely don't think we should make any big moves this season, but I wouldn't really mind it next season. Would prefer trading for Granger (he would be an expiring deal heading into a loaded 2014 FA class) or trying to sign Iggy if we want to land a big name FA.

[da ThRONe]

Very good article, Mike.

I realize you wrote it to be more or less neutral on the possibility, but I have to assume you are very much against this move.

This would be an absolutely toxic move for the franchise right now. Rudy Gay is a "good" player being paid as an "elite" player, and really nothing is worse for a team's cap situation than this. He is, for all intents and purposes, BURNING $5-$7 million in cap space (he is worth $10-$12 mil or so based on production) for whatever team that has him for the next 2 and a half seasons. His production is so out of line with his contract, and with such a tight cap situation it is a death knell for teams like us. His contract is easily a top 5 worst in the league because of how severely it limits flexibility versus how relatively little he produces on the court for the price. I really cannot overstate what a horrible move this would be for our situation over the next 2 years.

I called this when Memphis re-signed him that they killed any chance they had of winning a title as long as they have him. You simply cannot afford to pay B level guys that kinda money, unless you are willing to go DEEP into luxury tax territory, which only the Lakers, Nets and Knicks seem willing to do. This was so predictable its hilarious to me.

I think what's being over looked with Gay is his supporting cast. Randolph, Gasol, and Conley are all really good players that need their touches. Many thought Harden wasn't a franchise max type player based on his role with OKC. Now his production is on par with a guy who is worth a max deal. Not sure if we'll be in position to sign a better wing player than Gay.

With that said Gay does appear to be overpaid, but like Thrillhouse points out most teams in our position that wants to start winning asap usually has to overpay guys to get the ball rolling.

[HornetGuru]

I'd like cj miles instead for cheap

[MichaelMcNamara]

Very good article, Mike.

I realize you wrote it to be more or less neutral on the possibility, but I have to assume you are very much against this move.

This would be an absolutely toxic move for the franchise right now. Rudy Gay is a "good" player being paid as an "elite" player, and really nothing is worse for a team's cap situation than this. He is, for all intents and purposes, BURNING $5-$7 million in cap space (he is worth $10-$12 mil or so based on production) for whatever team that has him for the next 2 and a half seasons. His production is so out of line with his contract, and with such a tight cap situation it is a death knell for teams like us. His contract is easily a top 5 worst in the league because of how severely it limits flexibility versus how relatively little he produces on the court for the price. I really cannot overstate what a horrible move this would be for our situation over the next 2 years.

I called this when Memphis re-signed him that they killed any chance they had of winning a title as long as they have him. You simply cannot afford to pay B level guys that kinda money, unless you are willing to go DEEP into luxury tax territory, which only the Lakers, Nets and Knicks seem willing to do. This was so predictable its hilarious to me.

You are dead on. I do these every Saturday, so I try to be objective and look at all sides, providing more depth to the conversation that what you might normally find on the subject of adding particular players. GM's and player personnel people evaluate every possibility because Plan A, B, and C don't always pan out. While I agree that you would ideally want a good or great player on a better deal, so do all 29 other teams. 'A level' guys almost never become available and even when they do, New Orleans isnt usually considered a prime destination. 'B level' guys become available more often, but because of market scarcity, they often get paid like 'A level' guys.

Rookies are always sexy and offer hope for the future, but they become C or D level players far more often than they become A or B level, especially if your pick is outside of the top 5.

Shabazz would likely be plan A, but if he is gone I think you have to start considering guys like Deng and Gay, especially if guys like Budinger or Brewer sign elsewhere. I think that is plan B- split the money up between a couple of young vets, but again you dont just magically choose those guys- you gotta compete with other teams, and if they come off the board, then what? Take a guy like Otto Porter who will be a D level guy in his rookie year and might get to B level by year 3 or could bust like Aminu? Go back to Aminu and try to develop him?

Again, it is easy to say- "Well lets just go get this guy or draft Shabazz" but if you miss, then what? To me, Gay is a decent C or D option

[Eman5805]

Only problem with Gay is his contract. Partner him with Gordon and it's a good pairing.

[RyanM]

I agree that waiting till the off-season is a good idea and Gay would not be a bad option. A line up with Gay/Gordon/Davis/Anderson would certainly be able to score, but I don't like the idea of having no cap flexibility for the next couple of years. If we were to get a top 3 pick like Shabazz I would try and move Gordon for Gay. Now Memphis would have little to no interest in a direct swap as they would be in a very similar luxury tax situation, so I would look for a 3 way trade.

I haven't looked into this a lot but maybe something like

Gordon to the Bobcats
Henderson(sign and trade) and Biyombo to Memphis
Gay to the Hornets

and have a line up of with a bit more flexibility.
Vazquez/Rivers
Shabazz
Gay
Davis/Anderson
Lopez/Smith

I would be happy with either option to be honest, just another idea.

[Sleeper]

I live in Memphis right now and know for a fact he is indeed on the market. However, they would want a lot in return at this point. We should start negotiations now. His stock will lower. As teams adjust to ZBo and Gasol, he gets asked more and more to be the main scorer. He is a very good supplemental player and need to jump on it after the playoffs when his stock is low.

[glepurple]

I agree that waiting till the off-season is a good idea and Gay would not be a bad option. A line up with Gay/Gordon/Davis/Anderson would certainly be able to score, but I don't like the idea of having no cap flexibility for the next couple of years. If we were to get a top 3 pick like Shabazz I would try and move Gordon for Gay. Now Memphis would have little to no interest in a direct swap as they would be in a very similar luxury tax situation, so I would look for a 3 way trade.

I haven't looked into this a lot but maybe something like



Gordon to the Bobcats
Henderson(sign and trade) and Biyombo to Memphis
Gay to the Hornets

and have a line up of with a bit more flexibility.
Vazquez/Rivers
Shabazz
Gay
Davis/Anderson
Lopez/Smith

I would be happy with either option to be honest, just another idea.

shabazz is going to be a sf in this league...we would be absent of a sg. Also i dont want rudy gay on our team...i don't think his game translates to wins. Why trade for him when davis and rivers are a couple seasons from reaching their full potential.

[PrimeTimeWhoDat]

I would love to add Rudy Gay to this team and really wish Demps would of kept Warrick if this could of helped make this happen. I did not understand that move at all considering the expiring contract and getting nothing for it.

He may be an inefficient offensive player, but he has never played with a shooting guard with Eric Gordon’s talent! OJ Mayo and Tony Allen our the 2 guards he has played with that our not in any way on Eric Gordon’s skill level. He has never played with a big man capable of scoring the way Ryan Anderson can. So having these type of players on his team, should discourage him from taking these bad shots. He has a guard in Gordon that can score in so many ways that he won’t be forced to take those long jumpers and drive to the hoop for ill-advised contested shots. Then he has never had a big that can hit shots like from 3, so he won’t have to take those bad 3s.

Maybe he thinks that he has to take on that role since Tony Allen isn’t gonna give you those penetrating iso jumps shots. Besides Conley he has no one else that can hit 3′s, so he thinks he has to take those bad 3 point shots! Maybe I’m just trying to justify the reason I would want him on my team!

You just can’t deny his ability and that we need that type of player on this team. Hopefully it can be Shabazz Muhammed or someone else in this upcoming draft, but I would rather add a player that is only 26 and I know can play in the NBA with out a doubt! How for sure do we know we can get Muhammed. That's far from a sure thing.

What really made me mad was watching the Warriors game the other night and not getting anything in return for the two ex-Hornets! Especially the deal I was hoping for in the offseason, getting Dorrell Wright for Jarrett Jack! We could surely use him on this team at the 3.

[Impose]

I'm becoming a supporter of the Vasquez / Gordon backcourt, I think Gordon can guard elite PG's and Vasquez is a bargain. That idea means that SF is our sole focus in regards to the starting lineup. Rudy Gay is a damn good player, love his length, athletic ability, can create shots, and would also IMPROVE on this Hornets team. I have no doubt Vasquez and Gordon could get Gay some much easier looks through the course of a game than he currently gets. He could be much more efficient here.

That said we'd have to give up our 1st this year to get him IMO. We can't really trade for him since Shard is gone and the rest of our contracts bar Gordon don't make the $$$ work. It'd have to be an offseason move and I feel like Memphis might just keep that they have for the rest of the year anyway since they're fighting for top 4 seed.

With the lack of SF's available via free agency this year it will boil down to a decision over our draft pick or an established boarderline all star on a team with cap issues. Personally I'd almost feel better going for a rookie and saving our big playoff runs for 2 or 3 years after this.

[Ogden Park]

Anyone seriously advocating this move is basically throwing in the towel for a meaningful run at a championship level squad for the next 3 seasons. Our poor SF play is seriously clouding your judgment, I'm convinced of it.

Adding Gay (and keeping Gordon) locks our lineup into a 5-8 seed max potential squad, with absolutely ZERO financial flexibility. Gay is regressing as a player, and he has never been that good to begin with. Saying that New Orleans has to overpay these guys is asinine. NO team should ever pay Rudy Gay $17-$19 million to play basketball, and anyone that does is idiotic. Memphis (Hollinger) is kicking themselves for having this guy's cap number going forward. ITS POISON. Period. I wouldn't take him if they were GIVING him away, much less actually paying them a valuable asset. Lulz.

On paper, in a world where salaries don't matter, Gay would be a fine addition. In the real world though? One of the dumbest moves our team could make. Kills any chance of building a contender for at least 3 years.

[PrimeTimeWhoDat]

The main reason I like this move is cause the Grizzlies seem like they will have to move him and he's only 26 years old! So his final year of his contract you would have a nice core with him being 28, Gordon 25, Davis 22, Rivers 22, Vasquez 27, Anderson 26, Lopez 26! If we think we can be close to a contender by 2013/14, we need to add another quality veteran and not rookies every year to stay in the lottery. 6'8" small forwards that can score and play defense can't be had for cheap in this league. Unless you draft one and he develops into such a player. He would complement this team perfectly as the 2nd or 3rd scorer,depending on Davis' development, and give us a another player with some playoff experience with Anderson. Just my opinion and I would like to know how would he hurt our team's development? I've never heard anything about him having a bad attitude, being a bad teammate, having a bad work ethic, or being in any kind of trouble off the court.