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Thread: Austin Rivers with a PER below 7

  1. #76
    Quote Originally Posted by GuardianAngel25 View Post
    Absorbing contact has nothing to do with learning how. Its more he just hot a growth spurt because he just got done being a teenager. He will be much better at absorbing contact once he gets stronger and bigger. He should have stayed in college but leaving will only benefit him in the long run. I don't know how people think he at improve? Must be the same people that think Chad Ford is the best GM in basketball.
    He might be. The Grizz just snatched up Hollinger. Maybe NO should snatch up Chad Ford while they still can.

  2. #77
    The Franchise Spaniard's Avatar
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    In his last ten games, Austin has shot 42.86% from the filed, and an identical 42.86% from 3. I hope I don't have to explain how strong that is, especially with the handles that he has for a two guard.

    He was shooting in the 20's from the field, and is now over 35% for the season.

    Austin has faired pretty favorably to all other two guards in the draft.

    Austin:

    35.1% FG, 36.7% 3PT, 2.7 A, 1.5 TO, 28.2 MPG

    Beal:

    36.1% FG, 29% 3PT, 2.3 A, 1.7 TO, 30.1 MPG

    Waiters:

    37.1%, 31.4% 3PT, 3.5 A, 2.0 TO, 31.7 MPG

    Two guys drafted much higher. Also two guys that are not playing substantially better but playing more minutes for those who like to say Austin wouldn't get these minutes on other teams.

    Austin's advanced stats suffer from the lack of shots more than anything else. Beal has taken 66 more shots in 3 less games. 100 3 pointers to Austin's 49. Dion Waiters? 102 more shots! in 5 less games!! Again, 105 3 pointers to Austin's 49.

    If you follow things like PER, or WARP, you have to know how they are figured. When you take only a small sample size, when a player takes a small amount of shots in a lot of minutes, when a player shoots a pedestrian percentage, those advanced stats are going to look messy. As Michael has stated, if Austin had free wheel with the backups, his usage rates would be much higher which would raise his PER alone.

    Just an example of how ridiculous this is, if Austin goes 5 for 5 tonight from three, he will be shooting 42.6% from 3 for the year instead of 36.7%. One game, and all of a sudden people will think he's one of the best three point shooters in the league.

    It's comical to see people judge a 20 year old rookie, 26 games in, one who has played very well for an extended stretch, and say that kid can't play in the league.

  3. #78
    Quote Originally Posted by sfernald View Post
    Because he's playing the exact same way he was playing in high school and college and he's not improving. In order to be one of these guys who gets better and better in the NBA you have to have a certain dominant skill that will carry you during the process. I think people thought AR's such skill was going to be his driving ability, but I feel that it is way overrated. He is not as good a driver as Bayless was a rookie and Bayless ended up a mediocre player at best.
    If he was playing the exact same was as highschool and college he would be dominating. You do realize the way he played in high school made him the #1 player in the country right? Sure that was just his last name. That same play turned him into the ACC rookie of the year. Im guessing that was because his dad is a NBA coach. Has he not played up to expectations or maybe he has for the ones of you who think he is god awful and will never improve. He has been bad for stretches but he also has times where he looks like an All-star with some of his moves and finishing at the rim. I would love for him to be the exact same player he was in high school and what he turned into at Duke after his slow start. An aggressive and confident combo guard who is never scared of the moment and will take over a ball game. Once he develops and learns the NBA he will be great. I want you to explain why he wont.

  4. #79
    Quote Originally Posted by Spaniard View Post
    In his last ten games, Austin has shot 42.86% from the filed, and an identical 42.86% from 3. I hope I don't have to explain how strong that is, especially with the handles that he has for a two guard.

    He was shooting in the 20's from the field, and is now over 35% for the season.

    Austin has faired pretty favorably to all other two guards in the draft.

    Austin:

    35.1% FG, 36.7% 3PT, 2.7 A, 1.5 TO, 28.2 MPG

    Beal:

    36.1% FG, 29% 3PT, 2.3 A, 1.7 TO, 30.1 MPG

    Waiters:

    37.1%, 31.4% 3PT, 3.5 A, 2.0 TO, 31.7 MPG

    Two guys drafted much higher. Also two guys that are not playing substantially better but playing more minutes for those who like to say Austin wouldn't get these minutes on other teams.

    Austin's advanced stats suffer from the lack of shots more than anything else. Beal has taken 66 more shots in 3 less games. 100 3 pointers to Austin's 49. Dion Waiters? 102 more shots! in 5 less games!! Again, 105 3 pointers to Austin's 49.

    If you follow things like PER, or WARP, you have to know how they are figured. When you take only a small sample size, when a player takes a small amount of shots in a lot of minutes, when a player shoots a pedestrian percentage, those advanced stats are going to look messy. As Michael has stated, if Austin had free wheel with the backups, his usage rates would be much higher which would raise his PER alone.

    Just an example of how ridiculous this is, if Austin goes 5 for 5 tonight from three, he will be shooting 42.6% from 3 for the year instead of 36.7%. One game, and all of a sudden people will think he's one of the best three point shooters in the league.

    It's comical to see people judge a 20 year old rookie, 26 games in, one who has played very well for an extended stretch, and say that kid can't play in the league.
    Everything you said is dead on. Especially the 3 point %, just one game changes him from a horrible 3 point shooter to the best rookie ever haha. A little unfair to think he is horrible because of a slow start with half the shots these other guys have. If anything they are the ones people should be calling busts. Wasnt Beal a cant miss who will be a Ray Allen immediately? Waiters is the next DWade? Well now what do they suck and will never improve. One thing I will say if anyone improves its Austin Rivers he works to hard not to.

  5. #80
    The Voice of Reason Contributor RaisingTheBar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sfernald View Post
    It's not like the guy just "says" it. He supports it with overwhelming statistics that show he is playing at a "historically" bad rate. Did you catch the whole "historic" thing?
    Please share with us these historic stats....
    My Anthony Davis website: http://thebrow.uphero.com/

  6. #81
    The Voice of Reason Contributor RaisingTheBar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spaniard View Post
    In his last ten games, Austin has shot 42.86% from the filed, and an identical 42.86% from 3. I hope I don't have to explain how strong that is, especially with the handles that he has for a two guard.

    He was shooting in the 20's from the field, and is now over 35% for the season.

    Austin has faired pretty favorably to all other two guards in the draft.

    Austin:

    35.1% FG, 36.7% 3PT, 2.7 A, 1.5 TO, 28.2 MPG

    Beal:

    36.1% FG, 29% 3PT, 2.3 A, 1.7 TO, 30.1 MPG

    Waiters:

    37.1%, 31.4% 3PT, 3.5 A, 2.0 TO, 31.7 MPG

    Two guys drafted much higher. Also two guys that are not playing substantially better but playing more minutes for those who like to say Austin wouldn't get these minutes on other teams.

    Austin's advanced stats suffer from the lack of shots more than anything else. Beal has taken 66 more shots in 3 less games. 100 3 pointers to Austin's 49. Dion Waiters? 102 more shots! in 5 less games!! Again, 105 3 pointers to Austin's 49.

    If you follow things like PER, or WARP, you have to know how they are figured. When you take only a small sample size, when a player takes a small amount of shots in a lot of minutes, when a player shoots a pedestrian percentage, those advanced stats are going to look messy. As Michael has stated, if Austin had free wheel with the backups, his usage rates would be much higher which would raise his PER alone.

    Just an example of how ridiculous this is, if Austin goes 5 for 5 tonight from three, he will be shooting 42.6% from 3 for the year instead of 36.7%. One game, and all of a sudden people will think he's one of the best three point shooters in the league.

    It's comical to see people judge a 20 year old rookie, 26 games in, one who has played very well for an extended stretch, and say that kid can't play in the league.
    IDC what you say. Historically he is the worst player ever and should be flipping burgers at McDonalds because someone on the internet said so.

  7. #82
    Quote Originally Posted by RaisingTheBrow View Post
    Please share with us these historic stats....
    I'm not going to get into all that with PER and WARP. You can read the article as well as I. Advanced stats are just one component. He's not passing the eye test either. I keep hearing things like he isn't shooting enough, etc. Well that is a problem. He is a scoring guard and there's long stretches of the game where he is completely invisible, not doing anything for his team. Sure missing shots is worse that taking shots, but you could put anyone out there to just "stand in" and not do anything. If I were in the game, I would never miss a shot, yet I would be the worst NBA player to ever play the game, because I would do nothing to help my team. His advanced stats are so bad because he does nothing to help his team for so much of the game.
    Last edited by sfernald; 12-26-2012 at 03:52 PM.

  8. #83
    Quote Originally Posted by GuardianAngel25 View Post
    Everyone you just named was still in college as a sophomore. Instead Rivers is in the NBA playing starter minutes while everyone you mentioned is on the bench.
    Kylie Irving came out after 1 year and he is leaps and bounds better than Rivers

  9. #84
    Quote Originally Posted by RaisingTheBrow View Post
    IDC what you say. Historically he is the worst player ever and should be flipping burgers at McDonalds because someone on the internet said so.
    Flipping burgers might be pushing it. I could see him hanging out at his dad's mansion playing Xbox all day long maybe.

  10. #85
    He'll be fine. I'm honestly not worried. He is way different than Aminu or Wright - he just is. He's a smart player! His presence on the court is useful and he'll learn when to best inject himself into the action for the optimal results. Aminu and Wright (and Hilton for that matter) looked like chickens with their heads cut off out there on the court - they were awkward as hell, they were maddeningly neutral in regards to the passion for the game, their interactions with teammates and opponents on the court, etc. Austin just "gets it". You can tell by watching him that he's light years ahead of those clowns.

    I'd bet a large amount of money that Austin Rivers will have a solid and successful NBA career.
    Dell Demps - the new Jeff Bower

  11. #86
    Quote Originally Posted by Spaniard View Post
    In his last ten games, Austin has shot 42.86% from the filed, and an identical 42.86% from 3. I hope I don't have to explain how strong that is, especially with the handles that he has for a two guard.

    He was shooting in the 20's from the field, and is now over 35% for the season.

    Austin has faired pretty favorably to all other two guards in the draft.

    Austin:

    35.1% FG, 36.7% 3PT, 2.7 A, 1.5 TO, 28.2 MPG


    Beal:

    36.1% FG, 29% 3PT, 2.3 A, 1.7 TO, 30.1 MPG

    Waiters:

    37.1%, 31.4% 3PT, 3.5 A, 2.0 TO, 31.7 MPG

    Two guys drafted much higher. Also two guys that are not playing substantially better but playing more minutes for those who like to say Austin wouldn't get these minutes on other teams.

    Austin's advanced stats suffer from the lack of shots more than anything else. Beal has taken 66 more shots in 3 less games. 100 3 pointers to Austin's 49. Dion Waiters? 102 more shots! in 5 less games!! Again, 105 3 pointers to Austin's 49.

    If you follow things like PER, or WARP, you have to know how they are figured. When you take only a small sample size, when a player takes a small amount of shots in a lot of minutes, when a player shoots a pedestrian percentage, those advanced stats are going to look messy. As Michael has stated, if Austin had free wheel with the backups, his usage rates would be much higher which would raise his PER alone.

    Just an example of how ridiculous this is, if Austin goes 5 for 5 tonight from three, he will be shooting 42.6% from 3 for the year instead of 36.7%. One game, and all of a sudden people will think he's one of the best three point shooters in the league.

    It's comical to see people judge a 20 year old rookie, 26 games in, one who has played very well for an extended stretch, and say that kid can't play in the league.
    You can't say that we can't criticize him on 27 games and them substantiate Rivers star power by giving us stats on the last 8 games or whatever. I've said before. Ask yourself f Rivers was on a different team, would you want him as a hornet

  12. #87
    Quote Originally Posted by UptownFuz504 View Post
    You can't say that we can't criticize him on 27 games and them substantiate Rivers star power by giving us stats on the last 8 games or whatever. I've said before. Ask yourself f Rivers was on a different team, would you want him as a hornet
    You really can though - I would absolutely argue that his recent 8 game trend is way more important than his overall 27 game career. He's getting it and learning how to make a positive impact. There's really no denying this - both the qualitative eyeball test and his quantitative stats back this up. Further, he's the only true creator on the court many times. That's an undue amount of pressure on a young pup. Put him on the court with a true slashing 3 or even at point with EG10 out there and you'll see a huge different IMO.

  13. #88
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    Quote Originally Posted by UptownFuz504 View Post
    Kylie Irving came out after 1 year and he is leaps and bounds better than Rivers
    Now, I'm not sure. But that could've had something to do with why he went #1 overall.

  14. #89
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    Quote Originally Posted by sfernald View Post
    I'm not going to get into all that with PER and WARP. You can read the article as well as I. Advanced stats are just one component. He's not passing the eye test either. I keep hearing things like he isn't shooting enough, etc. Well that is a problem. He is a scoring guard and there's long stretches of the game where he is completely invisible, not doing anything for his team. Sure missing shots is worse that taking shots, but you could put anyone out there to just "stand in" and not do anything. If I were in the game, I would never miss a shot, yet I would be the worst NBA player to ever play the game, because I would do nothing to help my team. His advanced stats are so bad because he does nothing to help his team for so much of the game.
    Quick question, where do you live again? Don't you not watch all of the Hornets games?(double negative)

  15. #90
    Quote Originally Posted by WisconsinHornet View Post
    You really can though - I would absolutely argue that his recent 8 game trend is way more important than his overall 27 game career. He's getting it and learning how to make a positive impact. There's really no denying this - both the qualitative eyeball test and his quantitative stats back this up.
    If the object of bball was to get to the rim and shoot it over the backboard or get abused on d or beng terrible from the ft line, he's on the right career path. Whether you're 19 or 30, you are what you are. I'll use Kylie Irving as an example. Same age, same college, less games, leaps and bounds better

  16. #91
    Quote Originally Posted by Eman5805 View Post
    Now, I'm not sure. But that could've had something to do with why he went #1 overall.
    Exactly my point.

  17. #92
    Quote Originally Posted by UptownFuz504 View Post
    If the object of bball was to get to the rim and shoot it over the backboard or get abused on d or beng terrible from the ft line, he's on the right career path. Whether you're 19 or 30, you are what you are. I'll use Kylie Irving as an example. Same age, same college, less games, leaps and bounds better
    I'll watch him much closer these next few games - I agree that he's not been finishing well but it seems like that's the easy part. It's like correcting a young tight end who has the size and speed, gets off the line well, knows how to block, but misses his reads and drops passes. It seems like his finishing skills will come as he gains experience. I'm not some huge AR fanboi by the way. I wanted Drummond SO badly and was crushed when we didn't move up to get him and the Pistons didn't pass on him.

    It sounds like you at least agree that he's got the size and the ability to drive into the lane, get the shot up from advantageous positions, and earn trips to the FT line, correct?

  18. #93
    The Voice of Reason Contributor RaisingTheBar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sfernald View Post
    I'm not going to get into all that with PER and WARP. You can read the article as well as I. Advanced stats are just one component. He's not passing the eye test either. I keep hearing things like he isn't shooting enough, etc. Well that is a problem. He is a scoring guard and there's long stretches of the game where he is completely invisible, not doing anything for his team. Sure missing shots is worse that taking shots, but you could put anyone out there to just "stand in" and not do anything. If I were in the game, I would never miss a shot, yet I would be the worst NBA player to ever play the game, because I would do nothing to help my team. His advanced stats are so bad because he does nothing to help his team for so much of the game.
    You have no idea what he is told by coaches what he can or cannot do. You dont know how much control he has over the offense so stop acting like you do.

  19. #94
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    I hated the pick and that opinion has been completely justified by River's play so far this year. Is this thread a little premature? Probably. But no one in their right mind can honestly say that Austin Rivers has had a positive effect on this team. We are an awful team and he, so far, is an awful player. He has potential, but as I've watched almost every game he's played in the past two years, nothing he has done convinces me that he will come anywhere close to fulfilling that potential. The stats obviously back this up if it can even be argued that he is having the worst season ever, although I'm assuming that it is a bit of a stretch (not an insider so I can't read the article.)

    He came into the League and everyone was saying that he was flowing with confidence (most of this stems from the one memorable play he made in college). I have seen no confidence from him this year. He disappears from games on a consistent basis and does not seem to be decisive with the ball in his hands. He looks far below average on defense. He does not have a good shot and his free throw numbers are appalling. He can get to the basket but can't finish, which anyone who plays basketball knows is less about technical skill and more about a true feel for the game. He does not have elite athleticism, just an elite first step.

    I really hope he pans out and proves me wrong but I have very little faith in that happening. Nothing I have seen, except in rare flashes, shows me that he will be anything but a bench warmer for most of his career.

  20. #95
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    Quote Originally Posted by UptownFuz504 View Post
    Kylie Irving came out after 1 year and he is leaps and bounds better than Rivers
    And who has ever compared him to Kyrie ? While we're at comparing him to former #1s lets compare him to LeBron Etc.

  21. #96
    Quote Originally Posted by Nola3 View Post
    He can get to the basket but can't finish, which anyone who plays basketball knows is less about technical skill and more about a true feel for the game. He does not have elite athleticism, just an elite first step.
    With good coaching and the right cast around you, this is more than enough to be a very solid 6th man in the NBA. We all know that Austin has above average intelligence and is a great teammate. He'll either learn to drive and dish, learn to finish, and/or improve his free throw percentage. It's a no brainer that he will get better. He already does the most difficult part of his job very well - he has a great first move and he gets into the paint. There's probably fewer than 150 guys on the planet who can do this routinely in NBA games... this kid is 19 and can do it with size and smarts. He's going to be a valuable part of our rebuild!
    Last edited by WisconsinHornet; 12-26-2012 at 04:11 PM.

  22. #97
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    Quote Originally Posted by UptownFuz504 View Post
    You can't say that we can't criticize him on 27 games and them substantiate Rivers star power by giving us stats on the last 8 games or whatever. I've said before. Ask yourself f Rivers was on a different team, would you want him as a hornet
    If you say a player doesn't deserve to be in the league using advanced stats on his very first 26 games, absolutely I will say you're ridiculous and missing a lot. There is nothing wrong with using stats to say he played well for a stretch of games on the other hand. Hopefully you see the difference. And I would absolutely want Austin on this team regardless of where he was drafted.

    I have made it clear well before, during and after the draft the players I liked. I had to explain how Anthony Davis was better than Marcus Camby already while in college(and that Camby has been a great NBA player, but that's another subject). Had to show how he actually was similar to a young Tim Duncan more than Camby. I had to explain how Damian Lillard was a special player. I had to explain all the reasons Drummond struggled in college, including Calhoun not being there, him getting hurt, him breaking his nose and wearing a mask, etc etc. I had to explain why I really didn't believe in Thomas Robinson, who I thought his best ceiling as a player was Paul Milsaps, though I didn't think he was that good either. How I never understood people calling Beal Ray Allen when he didn't shoot the 3 well in college. Still like him as a solid player, but he's just not a lights out shooter.

    And I have tried to explain what the Hornets probably see in Austin Rivers. At the end of the day, Austin was drafted to play with Eric Gordon. Something we haven't seen yet. EJ is going to initiate the offense for this team, he is going to be the point guard for most all purposes. But he is undersized at the 2 guard, and doesn't have the impeccable handles to play PG full time. Austin Rivers is a perfect compliment. He is 6'4, but quick enough to guard PG's. He has the handles to bring the ball up, and also to initiate the offense when things bog down. But he also can play off the ball, whether that's behind the 3 point line, or to run the pick and roll from the other side.

    A catch and shoot guy would not work with Gordon, and a neither would a pass only guy. Austin is a perfect fit. He is a ying to Gordon's yang. Don't write off the Lakers before you see Nash play, and don't write off Rivers before you see him play with Gordon for a couple of years. The kid has an NBA game, and it will be fun to watch him grow.

  23. #98
    Starter DarkHornet's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by UptownFuz504 View Post
    You can't say that we can't criticize him on 27 games and them substantiate Rivers star power by giving us stats on the last 8 games or whatever. I've said before. Ask yourself f Rivers was on a different team, would you want him as a hornet
    I'm not quite sure what you want. As a Hornets fan, like him or not, this is the guy we drafted. He's on our team. He's not someone we're looking to acquire via trade. So what if we wouldn't want to trade for him. What do you want from Hornets fans? To say that he's bad, always going to be bad, and we should just accept that and let him ride the bench for the next 3 years?

    Of course people are going to be looking for signs he might improve. That's what we do as fans. What's your end-game?

  24. #99
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    Quote Originally Posted by sfernald View Post
    Flipping burgers might be pushing it. I could see him hanging out at his dad's mansion playing Xbox all day long maybe.
    Such a troll answer. Not worth anybody's time.

  25. #100
    Quote Originally Posted by WisconsinHornet View Post
    I'll watch him much closer these next few games - I agree that he's not been finishing well but it seems like that's the easy part. It's like correcting a young tight end who has the size and speed, gets off the line well, knows how to block, but misses his reads and drops passes. It seems like his finishing skills will come as he gains experience. I'm not some huge AR fanboi by the way. I wanted Drummond SO badly and was crushed when we didn't move up to get him and the Pistons didn't pass on him.

    It sounds like you at least agree that he's got the size and the ability to drive into the lane, get the shot up from advantageous positions, and earn trips to the FT line, correct?
    I'm on record saying that I think that he can get better. I just differ from you guys in the sense that I think that his ceiling is average and not all-star. When i read posts about building the team around Rivers and AD but getting rid of guys who actually contribute, I get confused because I honestly don't see what you guys are seeing. to me his greatest value is coming off of the bench as a reserve guy. 15 - 20 min max. If we like what Rivers gives us I don't see why everyone hates Aminu. He does almost everything better than Rivers except dribble. I'm just into making the hornets better and I don't see rivers as a player that does that. We'll see though.
    Last edited by UptownFuz504; 12-26-2012 at 04:20 PM.

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