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Thread: Austin Rivers with a PER below 7

  1. #26
    Band of Skulls & Neon Trees ramsters60's Avatar
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    this ought to fan some flames...would anyone give up Rivers to be able to draft CJ McCollum?
    "we might make dollars, but we don't necessarily make sense"

    "always be sincere....whether you mean it or not"

  2. #27
    Pistol Pete Would Be Proud!! wuggie's Avatar
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    I think one factor we have to add when talking about Rivers is the Monty factor. He's known to develop players I mean who would have thought Jason Smith would be this good a few years ago?

    "I want ONLY 9 eyebrows in the starting lineup for the Hornets next year." I typed this before the draft lottery

  3. #28
    Quote Originally Posted by nikkoewan View Post
    Never had high hopes for Rivers. If he turns out to be a "Brandon Rush" i.e. a reliable off the bench player, then I'd be happy about the Rivers pick.

    There's no denying that Rivers has been bad -- he HAS been, at a historic pace I might add. What we're basically doing is finding the good in the bad - like finding a needle in a haystack. But we're only 27 games in. I'd be more concerned if he keeps this pace up for the entire year. Which I pray will not happen.

    But what choice do we have? We picked him. And drafting is as much as the pick as it is the time invested in them. The only real advantage you have is that you get to pick first -- which in theory means that you SHOULD get the better player. But rarely (if ever) do we see reality follow theory. Hence, the need to invest the time and resources into this pick - regardless if they are historically this bad.

    You're painting a picture that says - 27 games into his career, Rivers is NOT going to amount into anything. Which is very foolish only because he's yet to even play all teams in the league (he's only played 19 out of a possible 29 teams). Let's wait for the season to end before throwing out such conclusive remarks, shall we??
    Look at someone like Jamal Crawford and how ineffective he was in his first 3 years. He has now turned into one of the most dangerous scorers in the NBA. Rivers has all the ability to score just like him, but be a bigger and better defender. He is not done growing and works as hard as anybody. He is off to a bad start but he shows a way different ability then others. The stats do lie sometimes and other times they don't. In this case you have to give it 3 years at least to play out and see what type of player he is possibly going to be. Stats don't tell it but the eye test does. At times I see someone who is great and very aggressive like other greats. Other time he is a complete non factor and not involved in the game. This is all purely age and in experience factor just give him time.

  4. #29
    Quote Originally Posted by wuggie View Post
    I think one factor we have to add when talking about Rivers is the Monty factor. He's known to develop players I mean who would have thought Jason Smith would be this good a few years ago?
    he has only developed jason smith though...what about aminu and henry lol?

  5. #30
    Quote Originally Posted by GuardianAngel25 View Post
    Look at someone like Jamal Crawford and how ineffective he was in his first 3 years. He has now turned into one of the most dangerous scorers in the NBA. Rivers has all the ability to score just like him, but be a bigger and better defender. He is not done growing and works as hard as anybody. He is off to a bad start but he shows a way different ability then others. The stats do lie sometimes and other times they don't. In this case you have to give it 3 years at least to play out and see what type of player he is possibly going to be. Stats don't tell it but the eye test does. At times I see someone who is great and very aggressive like other greats. Other time he is a complete non factor and not involved in the game. This is all purely age and in experience factor just give him time.
    crawford had a 15.99 PER his rookie season

    my point in making this thread is that it looks like good NBA players NEVER start out playing this poorly...we are hoping for a lone exception, which history suggests that his odds for success are slim at best

  6. #31
    Quote Originally Posted by CP4MVP View Post
    crawford had a 15.99 PER his rookie season

    my point in making this thread is that it looks like good NBA players NEVER start out playing this poorly...we are hoping for a lone exception, which history suggests that his odds for success are slim at best
    An exception IF he maintains this low PER throughout the season, as we only have data for players after their full rookie year. We are a third of the way through.

    If he is still historically bad in April, please restart this thread. Until then, a little patience
    @mcnamara247

  7. #32
    Quote Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara View Post
    An exception IF he maintains this low PER throughout the season, as we only have data for players after their full rookie year. We are a third of the way through.

    If he is still historically bad in April, please restart this thread. Until then, a little patience
    oh yea completely agree...i am hoping he gets better

    i am bringing up the red flags now so we are aware of what history suggests...obviously, the season is not over...the point is if he keeps up this pace, then it is time to worry...and quite frankly it is time to worry just a little bit right now with him

  8. #33
    Pistol Pete Would Be Proud!! wuggie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by CP4MVP View Post
    he has only developed jason smith though...what about aminu and henry lol?
    Henry is getting better but I was more so thinking about the players in his Portland days such as Darius Miles and Batum.

  9. #34
    Quote Originally Posted by wuggie View Post
    Henry is getting better but I was more so thinking about the players in his Portland days such as Darius Miles and Batum.
    the only player is batum

  10. #35
    Quote Originally Posted by wuggie View Post
    Henry is getting better but I was more so thinking about the players in his Portland days such as Darius Miles and Batum.
    should we include Robin Lopez in there??? I mean, who knew the guy had post freaking moves?! Vasquez is basically doing what he's done last year in more minutes.

  11. #36
    Quote Originally Posted by CP4MVP View Post
    crawford had a 15.99 PER his rookie season

    my point in making this thread is that it looks like good NBA players NEVER start out playing this poorly...we are hoping for a lone exception, which history suggests that his odds for success are slim at best
    4.6 points his rookie year with limited minutes? Then a spectacular 9.3 his second year and 10.7 in the 3rd. All im saying is it took Crawford a while so give Rivers time. Rivers is younger and being thrown into the lineup earlier then expected but in the long run will help out. I dont care if he has 15.99 thats exactly where the eye test comes in. He has played poorly for stretches but great at time. He was just a teenager haha come on. He will be exciting to watch year 3 just be patient.

  12. #37
    The other factor here that makes this somewhat difficult to project is that there are so few one and done guards when pouring through the data. Bigs are more likely to come out and usually guards only come out (and succeed) if they are physically mature already - Tyreke Evans or if they are ultra quick natural point guards. Rivers is neither. Obviously he should have stayed in school for another year or two, but won't his NBA experience progress him faster than a sophomore season at Duke?

    Here are the guards at his age that played 20+ minutes and their PER:

    Kobe- 18.5
    Tyreke- 18.2
    Marbury-16.3
    Rose- 16
    Wall- 15.8
    Westbrook- 15.2
    Eric Gordon- 14.9
    Bibby- 14.8
    Jennings- 14.5
    Harden- 14
    Isiah Thomas (Det)- 14.5
    Baron- 13

    Then we have a level that Rivers can still reach

    Conley- 12.6
    Parker- 11.7
    Brandon Knight- 11.7
    JR Smith- 10.9

    Company he is currently in:

    Jamal Crawford (at 20)- 8.5
    Jerryd Bayless- 8.2
    Lance Stephenson- 5.5
    Deshawn Stevenson- 4.3
    Avery Bradley- 2.2

    Either way, there are several players i his range now. Solid bench players, yes, but would that be a total bust if Rivers turned into a slightly better Jerryd Bayless? What about JR Smith?

    The fact is that there are so few one and done guards that played big minutes in their rookie years. A guy like Damian Lillard would have been lost in this league 3 years ago, for instance. The question is: Would Austin have been better served being the man in college for another two years or will it be good for him to get his butt kicked in the NBA and learn that way?

    We'll see.

  13. #38
    I read all the optimism but I'd still like to know would anybody here trade for Rivers if he wasn't a Hornet? In other words if you were trying to make this team better, would Rivers be a piece that you'd want to add?

  14. #39
    Quote Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara View Post
    The other factor here that makes this somewhat difficult to project is that there are so few one and done guards when pouring through the data. Bigs are more likely to come out and usually guards only come out (and succeed) if they are physically mature already - Tyreke Evans or if they are ultra quick natural point guards. Rivers is neither. Obviously he should have stayed in school for another year or two, but won't his NBA experience progress him faster than a sophomore season at Duke?

    Here are the guards at his age that played 20+ minutes and their PER:

    Kobe- 18.5
    Tyreke- 18.2
    Marbury-16.3
    Rose- 16
    Wall- 15.8
    Westbrook- 15.2
    Eric Gordon- 14.9
    Bibby- 14.8
    Jennings- 14.5
    Harden- 14
    Isiah Thomas (Det)- 14.5
    Baron- 13

    Then we have a level that Rivers can still reach

    Conley- 12.6
    Parker- 11.7
    Brandon Knight- 11.7
    JR Smith- 10.9

    Company he is currently in:

    Jamal Crawford (at 20)- 8.5
    Jerryd Bayless- 8.2
    Lance Stephenson- 5.5
    Deshawn Stevenson- 4.3
    Avery Bradley- 2.2

    Either way, there are several players i his range now. Solid bench players, yes, but would that be a total bust if Rivers turned into a slightly better Jerryd Bayless? What about JR Smith?

    The fact is that there are so few one and done guards that played big minutes in their rookie years. A guy like Damian Lillard would have been lost in this league 3 years ago, for instance. The question is: Would Austin have been better served being the man in college for another two years or will it be good for him to get his butt kicked in the NBA and learn that way?

    We'll see.
    i think this post says it all...those guys that he is currently in are not too good besides crawford...there is definitely a positive correlation linked between rookie PER and future success

  15. #40
    Pistol Pete Would Be Proud!! da ThRONe's Avatar
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    I strongly dislike PER stats. It does little to put stats in prospective. I don't think Rivers is the answer at the point and he'll be better suited in the Jamal Crawford/sixth man role. But I do think he can have an quality role with this team.

  16. #41
    The Mad Titan    Contributor   
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    Quote Originally Posted by wuggie View Post
    Henry is getting better but I was more so thinking about the players in his Portland days such as Darius Miles and Batum.
    wuggs, you're kidding about Darius Miles right?

  17. #42
    Pistol Pete Would Be Proud!! wuggie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BallSoHard View Post
    wuggs, you're kidding about Darius Miles right?
    Well...not really because he was a good player before he got injured and I believe Monty was a big part in that.

  18. #43
    Davis made me come home The JNR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by CP4MVP View Post
    i think this post says it all...those guys that he is currently in are not too good besides crawford...there is definitely a positive correlation linked between rookie PER and future success
    Avery Bradley is pretty good. You're right about the rest.

  19. #44
    right on cue...kevin pelton put up an article for espn insider today asking if austin rivers is having the worst season ever

  20. #45
    we are replacing the worst starter in the league with eric gordon so that should be a huge bonus for us in terms of getting more wins this year

  21. #46
    The Voice of Reason Contributor RaisingTheBar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by CP4MVP View Post
    right on cue...kevin pelton put up an article for espn insider today asking if austin rivers is having the worst season ever
    Ever like of all time of any player??? Kevin Pelton can't be that stupid.

  22. #47

    Austin Rivers with a PER below 7

    This is getting aggravating. Austin is not this bad.

    #QUAILS MOM

  23. #48
    Davis made me come home The JNR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by CP4MVP View Post
    right on cue...kevin pelton put up an article for espn insider today asking if austin rivers is having the worst season ever
    That's why I hate the hype machine. The ONLY reason anyone would be stupid enough to bring that up is because Rivers has a famous last name. He's not even having the worst season ever this year, there are countless players who are worse. But no, because everyone and their mother talked about him all the time, his failures are magnified.

    Austin's pedigree is not his fault. And any other player would be given much more patience than everyone is giving him.

    Chill the hell out, everyone. It's a long season.

  24. #49
    Band of Skulls & Neon Trees ramsters60's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by UptownFuz504 View Post
    I read all the optimism but I'd still like to know would anybody here trade for Rivers if he wasn't a Hornet? In other words if you were trying to make this team better, would Rivers be a piece that you'd want to add?
    it seems to me that both you and da Throne do a pretty good job of removing your teal colored glasses before you come here....I don't have a problem in the world with that either, and your questions above might just be among the best I have heard asked around here in a while....I have to confess that I was intrigued with Rivers way, way before the draft and actually speculated exactly what the Hornets did when it came to him and potentially playing the point....now I am moving on and I would like to get your feelings pertaining to the very first post at the top of this page....I would have to sleep on the Rivers/McCollum thingie, but I can tell you now that I would probably be very, very close to pulling the trigger when I woke up....

  25. #50
    A Soulful Sports Fan Contributor Eman5805's Avatar
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    I don't even know who that guy is. But it's almost a surety he hasn't watched a single game.

    Classic yellow journalism.

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