The Missing Piece: Trade Scenarios for Bledsoe, Lowry, Deng, Parsons, and More

[MichaelMcNamara]

The New Orleans Hornets currently have a record of 5-21 and if the NBA lottery were to be held tonight, they would have a 15.6% chance at the #1 overall pick and a 47% shot at a top three pick. But what is a pick like that worth just a third of the way through the season? If Dell Demps and company have done their due diligence and don’t love this upcoming draft or if they just hate the idea of adding another 19 or 20 year old to the youngest team in the NBA, then perhaps they look to move the pick now for a young veteran that can help them expodite this rebuilding process.

To try and figure out what kind of value such a pick would have on the trade market, we can look back to deals in the last few seasons that were somewhat similar. The first one that comes to mind for most people would be the Nets deal for Gerald Wallace at the trade deadline last season. The Nets were sitting at 15-29 at the time, with the sixth worst record in the league when they made the move.Wallace was four months shy of his 30th birthday at the time, on the last year of his deal (declined P.O. for following year), and was having his worst season in six years at the time the Nets traded for him. His numbers were solid but not spectacular, as he posted a PER of 15.9 and put up 13.3 points with 6.6 rebounds that year in Portland. When all was said and done, the Nets got a solid starter who helped them keep Deron Williams, which in turn has helped them become a likely playoff team this year, while the Blazers got Damian Lillard with the pick. Practicaly the definition of a win-win.

Going back a little further, the Nets traded a sure fire lottery pick just a year earlier in a deal that landed them superstar Deron Williams. They gave up a young stud in Derrick Favors, along with a pick that at the time was slated for top three, a starting point guard in Devin Harris, and another future 1st rounder (from GS) for a guy who was arguably a top-10 NBA player. The Nets pick turned out to be #3 that year and with it the Jazz took Enes Kanter. The second first-rounder will likely go to Utah this year, as it is top six protected and Golden State is playing good basketball.

The final trade we can look at is Toronto’s offseason swap of its first rounder for Kyle Lowry. The pick is top three protected and would only go to Houston if it was in the lottery, ensuring that the Rockets would get a pick between 4 and 14. The pick has since been traded to OKC as a major piece of the package that landed James Harden.With regard to the type of player that the pick secured, Lowry was coming off a season where he average 14.3 points, 6.6 assists, and 4.6 rebounds in just over 32 minutes per game. He was 26 at the time of the trade and had a fantastic contract, with two years and just under $12 million left on the deal.

So now that we have some recent examples of what a sure-fire lottery pick could fetch, let’s take a look at some guys around the league if they decide to sell their pick before the trade deadline.

Kyle Lowry, PG, Toronto Raptors

How ironic would this be after Toronto just gave their pick up for him a couple of months ago? The fact is, however, that the Raptors are a .500 team when Jose Calderon starts and their head coach Dwayne Casey has flat out said that he won’t commit to either guy as his starter right now. The Raptors could look to move Lowry, especially if they can get a couple of pieces at positions that can help them win now.

The Deal: http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=d4vmx7m (Cavs get Hornets pick)

The Raptors get a great backup PG in Vasquez and perhaps the best center in the Eastern Conference right now in Anderson Varejao while the Cavs get a guy in Ed Davis who has taken off recently plus a potential top three pick from the Hornets for a 30 year old center who likely won’t be around when this young team finally develops into a contender. Plus, they get to become even worse, which means that their own pick could land at #1. Potential for two top five picks this year to add to their young core. Meanwhile the Hornets upgrade from Vasquez to Lowry, improving their perimeter defense immensely while still having nearly $15 million in the offseason to go after a small forward this summer.

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[Vetler]

nice one! I like pretty much every trade idea! I would only hesitate on the Deng deal but would do it probably anyway! For me the point guard issue is just much more important than the small forward! I mean we have to fix both problems, but to watch the hornets right now is so frustrating because vasquez is just asked to do too much and can´t handle pressure! I dont even think we need a new center when lopez goes! I would love to see this team just going to more small ball with davis at the 5 in the future!

[Sujaguar00]

Hopefully I'm in early enough to have this question answered. I haven't seen Bledsoe play a ton, so what is it that apparently has caught the eye of Hornets Nation? I see the ELITE athleticism, and scoring ability, but can he distribute and run a team? What about defensively? Can he guard on the ball or is he good at reading passing lanes and jumping them? Just looking for some info on what the kid could bring if we land him...

[Trell]

I kinda like the Paul George idea which was said on the thread some time back, but not for Gordon. Do anyone think they may take our lottery pick for him closer to the deadline?

[rebelman]

I'd rather have the high lottery pick since it's one of the only shots NO has at getting another superstar to put next to Davis

[Trell]

I'd rather have the high lottery pick since it's one of the only shots NO has at getting another superstar to put next to Davis and Gordon

There!

But George can possibly be that guys next to them both with a line up of Rivers, Gordon, George, Davis and Lopez is fantastic! If the guys become the players they are destined to be then we would have a killer team, with lenght! Then add Smith, Vasquez and Miller off the bench. But sorry for the great fantasy that I'm giving off.

[rebelman]

There!

But George can possibly be that guys next to them both with a line up of Rivers, Gordon, George, Davis and Lopez is fantastic! If the guys become the players they are destined to be then we would have a killer team, with lenght! Then add Smith, Vasquez and Miller off the bench. But sorry for the great fantasy that I'm giving off.

Shabazz Muhammad or Alex Len would be very good fit next to Davis & Gordon

[HornetGuru]

I'd trade gordon for Paul George and draft Ben mclemore

[goat gorilla]

I would try for a Deng move just try and make our pick top 3 protected. Deng would make our team soooo much better assuming Gordon comes back and is his former self. Our biggest deficiency is most certainly SF. Deng is a great one, especially when he is not 1st option on offense.

I like Thaddeus a lot too, but I don't think they will let go of him.

[Ogden Park]

I like the premise of the article, and agree with the basic idea of trading an unprotected top 5 pick for a proven veteran commodity. I don't like the comparisons to the Nets though. Billy King was desperate and swinging for the fences, and overpaid badly for Wallace. Bad precedent to draw from for our situation. Unlike King, Dell is in a position to be patient with the pick.

In any case, every one of your proposals is unrealistic to me.

1. Lowry (overrated) alone is not enough value for the pick + Vasquez, plus Varejao could bring a better package than a 1st and Ed Davis' corpse for with his talent and contract situation being so favorable. Regardless, the Raps are aggressively shopping Calderon and are likely holding on to Lowry. Not happening.

2. LOL. The Clips are not taking on Glen Davis' contract for Bledsoe. Are you high? And we'd be gifting the Magic a higher pick, or better yet, an UNPROTECTED 1st in 2014 for the privilege of getting them out from under that awful deal?? Christ almighty. They give up literally nothing, clear cap space and laugh all the way to the bank with our pick. Demps is fired, Stern sues us for obvious collusion with the Magic, the Pelicans go bankrupt and move to Seattle. Thanks, Mike.

3. The Blazers are building around Lillard, Aldridge and Batum. Period. He aint going anywhere, especially for more youth. And they already have Taj Gibson, his name is JJ Hickson. Totally irrelevant trade idea.

4. In a vacuum this is a somewhat decent trade. But in reality, its not happening. Bynum's health and contract situation negate this trade from the jump. I agree that Morey may want him, but he's not betting the farm at this point when he can wait it out and play in free agency. This is not the Harden situation at all. Also, the Sixers are giving up too much for their return.

I agree with some of the targets (Deng and Bledsoe in particular), but these scenarios are just not realistic. We have a pretty weak bargaining position right now (lack of assets beyond the pick...MAYBE Lopez is attractive to a contender, but that's really it), and so patience would serve us well. These guys will be available this summer, and the draft creates more of a hot market for picks as teams talk themselves into certain prospects, etc. Not exciting I realize, but Demps has no reason to jump to gun on this.

[PelsFan2313]

The Pacers aren't moving Paul George. Lets give that idea a rest.

I'm all for moving our picks for vets, but giving a potential top three pick to the Raptors for Lowry is a little hard to get behind. I love Lowry, but I'd prefer adding an Alex Lin or Shabazz.

It would be hard to argue against acquiring Luol Deng, though. He seemingly would fit perfectly in a lineup consisting of Rivers, Gordon, Anderson, and Davis.

[HornetGuru]

Deng would destroy our cap space for landing someone like al Jefferson

[AD23nEG10]

so we're trading our starting PG & a most likely top 3 pick for Kyle Lowry? I love Lowry's game but no thanks. You can get much more for that pick

[HornetGuru]

so we're trading our starting PG & a most likely top 3 pick for Kyle Lowry? I love Lowry's game but no thanks. You can get much more for that pick

Agree

[AD23nEG10]

Demarcus Cousins got into another altercation with his coach last night.. he needs to get out of Sacramento. I'll take his bad attitude anyday at the idea of pairing him with AD. They wouldn't really crowd each other and talent wise, Demarcus can be an all-star very soon.

I'd also be curious to see how available Tyreke is after his struggles... I'd throw that first round pick there in a second for Cousins & Tyreke for something like our 1st, GV, Aminu & Robin but the kings are going nowhere and don't seem to care that it's never going to work with their current roster

[MichaelMcNamara]

One thing to keep in mind- If Gordon plays 50 games, the chances of this remaining a top 3 pick is very slim.

Just like any asset, you want to sell it at its peak. This could be the peak of this pick because if Gordon comes back and plays well, it could easily become a pick in the 8-10 range and historically, picks in that range produce C or D players far more often than A or B players.

[nolaslim213]

I'd do the Bledsoe deal, but I wouldn't give up our 2014 1st round pick unless it was heavily protected - like top-20 protected. That is supposed to be a MONSTER draft.

This wasn't mentioned in the article, but I like the idea of signing J.J. Hickson this upcoming off season. He is a rugged big who would be great next to Davis and Anderson. Should be cheaper than the rest too. The obvious hole in our roster is at SF, and I don't think a guy like Deng is the answer, mostly because we would have to trade for him, and I'd rather move our pieces for Bledsoe.

[Pelicans78]

Cousins would have issues anywhere. He has psychological issues. Needs to be addressed or he will flame out.

[MichaelMcNamara]

I'd do the Bledsoe deal, but I wouldn't give up our 2014 1st round pick unless it was heavily protected - like top-20 protected. That is supposed to be a MONSTER draft.

This wasn't mentioned in the article, but I like the idea of signing J.J. Hickson this upcoming off season. He is a rugged big who would be great next to Davis and Anderson. Should be cheaper than the rest too. The obvious hole in our roster is at SF, and I don't think a guy like Deng is the answer, mostly because we would have to trade for him, and I'd rather move our pieces for Bledsoe.

Hickson was in my Missing Piece article two weeks ago, and I agree. This is why i am so willing to move Lopez for a guard, because there are a ton of big man options in FA and this draft. Hickson, Mosgov, Pek, Jefferson all FA's. Tons of guys you can get high in the draft or even pick up a late 1st and grab a guy like Jeff Withey from Kansas.

A lot of options to replace Lopez if we move him for a PG or SF

[AD23nEG10]

Cousins would have issues anywhere. He has psychological issues. Needs to be addressed or he will flame out.

his journey reminds me alot of Z-Bo's. I don't deny he's got issues but the talent far outweighs the risk. He still plays and if you're winning games issues don't arise. He's got two years left, trade for him this year and if he can't keep it together I trust there would be a substantial market for him in the summer.

[nolaslim213]

Demarcus Cousins got into another altercation with his coach last night.. he needs to get out of Sacramento. I'll take his bad attitude anyday at the idea of pairing him with AD. They wouldn't really crowd each other and talent wise, Demarcus can be an all-star very soon.

I'd also be curious to see how available Tyreke is after his struggles... I'd throw that first round pick there in a second for Cousins & Tyreke for something like our 1st, GV, Aminu & Robin but the kings are going nowhere and don't seem to care that it's never going to work with their current roster

3-way trade, gives us both Cousins and Bledsoe. Sacramento also gets our 1st round pick, top-7 protected.

http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=d7cpnor

[nolaslim213]

Hickson was in my Missing Piece article two weeks ago, and I agree. This is why i am so willing to move Lopez for a guard, because there are a ton of big man options in FA and this draft. Hickson, Mosgov, Pek, Jefferson all FA's. Tons of guys you can get high in the draft or even pick up a late 1st and grab a guy like Jeff Withey from Kansas.

A lot of options to replace Lopez if we move him for a PG or SF

I completely agree. What do you think Hickson's market is?

[Eman5805]

Deng would destroy our cap space for landing someone like al Jefferson

That assumes we are going after him in the first place.

[PelsFan2313]

That assumes we are going after him in the first place.

HornetGuru is obsessed with Al. He is an intriguing piece but I'd hesitate throwing more than 10M at him given his defensive shortcomings.

[AD23nEG10]

Demarcus just got suspended indefinitely... a trade seems very very possible and his value couldn't be any lower than what it is now. go big or go home!