Davis vs The Field

[nolaslim213]

So, I know it's only been 3 games, but Davis has been off the charts good so far. Now, some people might say this is too small of a sample size, and I would agree with that, but let's think for a second here.

Premise - Most rookies have a rough start to the season and get better as the season goes because they need time to adjust to the NBA. These are Davis' stats before he even got to "adjust," so in actuality, these stats should be lower than what he does for the rest of the season - works against him to do it this early. See where I'm going with this?

Anyway, I decided to use Advanced Metrics to compare the 5 players because it accounts for things like difference in minutes, pace of play, etc... I chose these 4 guys to compare Davis to because I think they are all similar players. Here are the guys I will be comparing him to in their rookie seasons: D. Howard, K. Garnett, D. Robinson, and T. Duncan:

Players/Categories	PER	TS%	TRB%	Stl%	BLK%	TOV%	ORtg	DRtg	WS/48
K. Garnett - 19	15.8	0.522	13.1	1.9	4.4	12.1	107	107	0.092
D. Howard - 19	17.2	0.571	17.3	1.5	3.6	16.1	111	104	0.131
T. Duncan - 21	22.6	0.577	17.6	0.9	4.5	15.7	108	95	0.192
D. Robinson - 24	26.3	0.597	18.5	2.2	6.5	13.3	116	97	0.241
A. Davis - 19	33.8	0.592	16.8	2.7	7.7	4.4	124	91	0.346

http://www.basketball-reference.com/...garneke01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/...howardw01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/...duncati01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/...robinda01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/...davisan02.html

The numbers speak for themselves. Davis is totally dominating the HOF competition from the jump, and he is only going to get better. Also, keep in mind that Davis is only 19, and he has only been playing in the post for less than 3 years (this year will be his 3rd). What is really striking to me is how low his TO% is to the other players. Best ORtg and DRtg of the group, his PER is off the charts, and he has over 0.1 full win share on everyone - that is HUGE. I see no reason why Davis can't keep these numbers up, and he should become even more efficient as time goes on and when Gordon comes back to attract opposing defense's attention.

Am I jumping the gun? Perhaps, but like I said, Davis is only going to get better, and the first games of your career are supposed to be some of your worst. Not for Davis....

[Pelicans78]

You're not jumping the gun at all. He's a special talent.

[nolaslim213]

You're not jumping the gun at all. He's a special talent.

Considering you are one of the Advanced Metric gurus on this board, I appreciate the feedback. I figured comparing them this way would take out all of the guess work - just straight up comparisons, and Davis is blowing away HOF competition. It's scary....

[andregurov]

If we do not win an NBA championship with Davis on our roster, I will consider us a total failure as a franchise. Statistics - coupled with court observation - leave me with the conclusion that Davis truly is a transcendental talent; I only pray he wins the title as a Hornet, because I have no doubt he will be playing in several NBA finals.

[BallSoHard]

It's a well written post, but comparing a few games versus a whole season in a little flawed. So yes I agree 3 games it too small of a sample size, but I'm equally as excited about him.

[BP225]

Davis has been so much better than advertised it's unreal. Even if we trade Gordon for a bag of peanuts, Aminu leaves as a UFA and Rivers is the next Jeryd Bayless, we will have won the CP3 trade.

[Saints#34]

I think too early to start extrapolating stats over the whole season but I think the people who questioned his ceiling as an offensive player are starting to rethink things. He's shown himself to be dangerous on the break and left loose, he's shown surprisingly good post skills and also a pretty darn impressive and fluid midrange shot.

Right now his floor looks like a 20-8 high percentage guy with 2-3 blocks. His ceiling is pretty exciting to think about. He was absolutely dominant on both ends last night in his third game ever.

[wuggie]

This dude does not even have an offensive game together yet, but he scores with ease at times. Just wait till he gets a go to post game and gets stronger. This guy is just wow.

[nolaslim213]

This dude does not even have an offensive game together yet, but he scores with ease at times. Just wait till he gets a go to post game and gets stronger. This guy is just wow.

Once he gets stronger, his TRB% will skyrocket. He is getting out-muscled right now, and it's pretty obvious. He is doing very well right now because of his wingspan and nose for the ball, but he could be one of the greats if he adds 20 lbs or so.

[MichaelMcNamara]

One very underrated aspect of AD's game that I would like to see compared to these guys- Fouls per game. Davis is averaging less than 1 foul per game. That is insane for a guy who averages over 3.5 blocks per 36 minutes and nearly 2 steals per 36. He is making impact defensive plays without fouling and giving opponents free points. Even non-shooting fouls help teams get in the bonus early, so not picking those up are huge. To me, the #1 reason that this Hornets defense has taken another step forward is because they dont give opponents free throws. Huge strength for Davis IMO

[UNO Gracias]

I didn't need the chart to tell me we have a once in a decade type of player, but I appreciate it.

But seriously, I think Davis isn't just going to reach his potential. Pressure put on him will allow others to reach their potential.

[Eman5805]

I didn't need the chart to tell me we have a once in a decade type of player, but I appreciate it.

But seriously, I think Davis isn't just going to reach his potential. Pressure put on him will allow others to reach their potential.

Very. At this rate, he's going to draw double teams. Double teams and he isn't even fully actuallizing his offensive game. Imagine when he learns the turn around fadeaway? Or adds the Tim Duncan jab step to his face up game?

[Perth_Hornet]

Can we offer him 5years/100mil yet?

[Flight of the Pelicans]

Months after the lottery and I'm still shocked we got him. The future is very very bright

[Silverfoxx]

Months after the lottery and I'm still shocked we got him. The future is very very bright

Same here. I juz rewatch the lotto on youtube and re-marked out again....

[da ThRONe]

Very. At this rate, he's going to draw double teams. Double teams and he isn't even fully actuallizing his offensive game. Imagine when he learns the turn around fadeaway? Or adds the Tim Duncan jab step to his face up game?

He's barely drawing single teams.

He has played well and has been very efficient. I underestimate his touch around the basket and his quick hooks. But most of his baskets are wide open assissted looks. Any good athlete would make those basket, and it's hasn't been 3 full games he's a good player and he should help this team win games for years to come, but taking 2.5 games and making these grand conclusion is premature to say the least.

How many of you where calling Jeremy Lin a once in a generation player after his run? Right now his offensive output is mostly due to the system. He's getting the ball right where he's comfortable and doesn't have to do much. He's also on a team with no true #1 option so he's a defacto 1st option.

If after teams adjust to how we are using Davis and if he's still this productive and/or efficient I feel way more comfortable about his chances to be a star.

[bojangles837]

ive honestly never heard anyone call jeremy lin a once in a generation type pleyer... eventually you'll come around and admit that you were wrong about davis.. one day

[AD23forMVP]

My god...

[Eman5805]

Ams

He's barely drawing single teams.

He has played well and has been very efficient. I underestimate his touch around the basket and his quick ho!oks. But most of his baskets are wide open looks. Any good athlete would make those basket, and it's hasn't been 3 full games he's a good player and he should help this team win games for years to come, but taking 2.5 games and making these grand conclusion is premature to say the least.

How many of you where calling Jeremy Lin a once in a generation player after is run? Right now his offensive output is mostly due to the system. He's getting the ball right where he's comfortable and doesn't have to do much. He's also on a team with no true #1 option so he's a defacto 1st option.

If after teams adjust to how we are using Davis he's still this productive and/or efficient I feel way more comfortable about his chances to be a star.

How many of us called Lin once in a generation? Can't speak for everyone else, but I NEVER believed Lin would continue. Hell, I don't even think the games he played were all that special. If it was Marcus Thornton playing for the Knicks, he would've done about the same, only less passing, but he would've gotten the same amount of blown up media coverage. Cuz it's New York. A good run is turned into the stuff of legend there.

But where Davis is concerned? The thing is, as I'm not afraid of being wrong, I have no problems making premature statements. At this continued pace of development over some length of time, double teams. Don't know when, but they're coming.

[BP225]

I underestimate his touch around the basket and his quick ho!oks. But most of his baskets are wide open looks. Any good athlete would make those basket,

Maybe I've been scarred by Okafor, Ariza, and last year's Aminu, but I scoff at your notion that easy baskets are easy

I do agree that we need to wait and see what happens when the defense starts scheming against him more, but i think he has outperformed expectations enough that a floor of Marcus Camby is no longer adequate. He will be so much better than Camby.

[da ThRONe]

ive honestly never heard anyone call jeremy lin a once in a generation type pleyer... eventually you'll come around and admit that you were wrong about davis.. one day

It's been two and a half games. Not nearly enough time for anybody to make any grand conclusions which was the point of the Jeremy Lin comment. I've said it all along if I'm wrong about Davis I'll say I'm wrong won't be the 1st time highly doubt it will be the last. However I've seen no major reason to think that my projections for Davis long term as wrong. I'll admit he's ahead of schedule IMO.

[FlyGirl]

http://www.allmoviephoto.com/photo/f...t_012_big.html

[jinishima]

I think we got a real good one on our hands in Davis. Terrific player and glad to see him playin again.

[Pelicans78]

It's been two and a half games. Not nearly enough time for anybody to make any grand conclusions which was the point of the Jeremy Lin comment. I've said it all along if I'm wrong about Davis I'll say I'm wrong won't be the 1st time highly doubt it will be the last. However I've seen no major reason to think that my projections for Davis long term as wrong. I'll admit he's ahead of schedule IMO.

You're a troll. We get it.

[da ThRONe]

Maybe I've been scarred by Okafor, Ariza, and last year's Aminu, but I scoff at your notion that easy baskets are easy

I do agree that we need to wait and see what happens when the defense starts scheming against him more, but i think he has outperformed expectations enough that a floor of Marcus Camby is no longer adequate. He will be so much better than Camby.

Yeah Okafor was notorious for returning gift wrapped baskets.