This article assumes there is a great deal of difference between an above average training staff and a below average training staff. What if there is a rather small variability among training staffs (low standard deviations--they don't deviate from each other all that much)?
Michael, it's a bit like what you guys talked about in your last podcast--why would Eric Gordon rehab in LA when there's likely very little difference between rehab programs in LA and NOLA?
If, say, the middle 25 training staffs in the NBA are all more or less at the same level of competence (Phoenix being an outlier in a good way, and though it's possible the Hornets are an outlier in a bad way, let's assume not), does the optimism bias really apply to training staffs?
I agree that the optimism bias applies to the Gordon situation--we were optimistic Gordon would stay healthy for us when history suggests that's not likely to happen--but I think the training staff argument may be a bit of a stretch.