I still think 12-14 average. Closer to 14 than 12 though.
Around the time we drafted him, we had discussion on what Davis could do offensively in his rookie season. I believe the general consensus was probably around 12-14 per game. What yall say now? After seeing him in preseason, today, etc I think that may be shorting him some. I would be shocked if he didn't average ATLEAST 16 per game, but a more realistic number may be 17-18.
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I still think 12-14 average. Closer to 14 than 12 though.
I think 18 is realistic. Just because of a lack of options. If Davis isn't near 20 a game, I don't know where else we are getting any offense from.
Well, you have to keep in mind that we're playing without Eric Gordon right now, who will be our top scorer by far and most talented offensive player.
However, I originally said he'd average 12 ppg in his rookie year and that his career max would be around 19-20. Now seeing how he's been able to score in the preseason effectively, I'm going to say he averages 15 ppg in his rookie season, and eventually ends up averaging 22-24. He reminds me of Chris Bosh offensively. That's the kind of production I'm expecting from him on the scoring side of things.
The PPG numbers in the NBA are also decreasing slowly but surely. Teams are becoming more balanced and there aren't as many truly elite scorers as there once was that just carry a team offensively. If Davis scored 22 PPG last year, he'd be the number 7 scorer in the entire NBA, and at 24 PPG he'd be number 5. That 22-24 range is also the career highs for Duncan, Dwight, and KG. That's the kind of scoring production I'm expecting from him. Borderline #1 option but it'd probably serve a team best if there was an equally talented scorer. Before I thought he was going to be an at best solid number 2 but I'm starting to think he can be a number 1 scoring option.
Regardless of how many PPG he puts up, I expect him to be incredibly efficient and be up there in win shares every single year. I think we agree on how effective he'll be, just a little different on a number, which isn't that big of a deal.
Last edited by Bee-Fense; 10-20-2012 at 03:07 PM.
16-18 per game. I've upped my prediction as well.
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I might be biased, as we are focusing on advanced stats more this season at H247, but I am more interested in what people think AD will produce in the following areas:
True Shooting Percentage
Points Per Shot
How many points he averages doesn't properly reflect how good of a player he is offensively IMO. 18 ppg on 46% shooting pales in comparison to 15 ppg on 61% from the field. Also, how many times does he get to the line (which will help his PPS and could improve his TS% if he hits his free throws)
TS %: 61%
For those thinking I am speaking gibberish, check out this great piece by Mason:
I like it how everyone assumes Gordon will actually be healthy for any consistent stretch of games.
Initially I would have said between 9-11 this year, but judging on how anaemic our offense looks if Davis can hit that jumper I don't think 14 is out the question.
for ex, tyson chandler shot a very high shooting percentage with us because his offense is a dunk...same goes for deandre jordan
i hope davis doesn't shoot as high a percentage as those guys because that will mean his offensive game is limited
Agreed- no stat is perfect, but to me, I would prefer an efficient player to a player who scores in bunches due to a high number of shots.
Davis "only" put up 15 PPG at Kentucky, but he lead the team in scoring despite taking the 5th most shots on the team. That is nuts!
People say Davis wasn't a scorer in college because of his PPG, but I disagree because I care more about efficiency. He was one of the most efficient players offensively in college basketball and to me, that is more reflective on his value offensively than PPG.
i'll say 15, but it'll vary greatly.. he'll go off for 30 every once in a while, but he'll also fall into some offensive funks.
I expect 12/8/2. Will be disappointed with less and pleasantly surprised with more.
Early in the year he will average closer to 17 or 18 IMO, but he will have a rookie slump towards the end due to the massive number of games towards the end where IMO he will dip to closer to 13. So it will average out as like 15 or 16.
Last edited by Mr. West; 10-21-2012 at 12:33 PM.
Well, now through 5 games, his stat-line is about what I originally expected him to get per 36 minutes as a rookie:
13.4 ppg 10.0 rbg, 1.2 apg, 1.4 bpg (just under 31 minutes per game).
I do expect him to average more than 1.4 blocks as a rookie, but I don't think he'll be anywhere near 4.0 at this stage in his career. Also interesting to note is that he's only averaging 1.4 fouls a game. He didn't pick up many fouls in college, and at least through 5 preseason games... that's continuing. Same for his low turnover margin. Only thing really concerning right now is his FG% (43.5%), although the 2/12 vs the Mavs is what basically killed that right now.
Per 36 minutes, Davis is currently at 15.7 ppg & 11.7 rbg.
I said 15/7/2 and I think I was spot on. Might even be more like 17 ppg
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