Hanna

[say-what]

A new one, but looking like an east coast storm for now.

[alon504]

One day this system could be in the GOM. Keep an eye on it.

[NYKF Hornet]

Any storm can be dangerous but this really does look like it's going to go east.

How accurate are the predictions with the above white map? I don't really understand the symbols or which particular track/color represents the greatest odds.

[West Coast Hornet]

Doesn't each color represent a different model? If that's the case, then we can see the models aren't in agreement on this one yet; whereas, when you look at the map for Gustav, most of the models are in agreement now that the storm is tracking towards SW La. or even SE Texas around the state line. One model has the storm heading off to the Yucatan peninsula, while another model says Gulfport. At any rate, those models seemingly have moved off of NOLA.

[alon504]

Any storm can be dangerous but this really does look like it's going to go east.

How accurate are the predictions with the above white map? I don't really understand the symbols or which particular track/color represents the greatest odds.

Those are weather computer models. Basically, they input numbers--mainly calculus equations (which is how the atmosphere is measured) and that is the result. Some models are better than others with different situations, but, one thing the mets look for is trends with the models that seem to agree with each other and then they make their forecast. The models, as a whole, are one of several tools that the NHC uses when it makes its forecasts.

[NYKF Hornet]

Thanks guys. After I posted I searched and found some more info on that map. Comparing the two storms maps Gustav's trends are much more in line than Hanna.