Western Conference 2015-2016

I wanted to start a thread on the subject of the Western Conference in 2015-2016, however with so many moving pieces, nobody really knows what the future holds. Look at the Western Conference next year from a standpoint of right now (moves haven't been made, coaching changes are only expected where they are open, and everyone is counting on health and continuity next season), and where do we sit?

We are counting on better health, an improved AD, and resigning Cole (at the very least if not Asik as well), but there isn't much there in way of money to bring in the help to get us over the hump. If we change nothing (coaches, gm, system, etc.), and we are relying on these things and continuity, where do you honestly see us finishing.

I see us finishing somewhere in the 6-8 spot. Even with our health being great, and our guys having continuity, I don't think its enough to shoot us to the top 5 spots. The thing that GS did was they brought in a new coach, and implemented a new style. That is really the only difference between them right now, and where they were with this same unit last season. Just a new coach/system away. Health is one thing, but health doesn't mask deficiencies you couldn't mask before. So I will say a 6-8 spot.

----Proven Contenders----
The Spurs are old, and they have to drop, but unless Duncan retires, and Pops leaves with him, the Spurs are making the playoffs. They have to resign Duncan, Manu, Danny Green, and most importantly Kawhi, so there is a glimmer of hope that maybe not everyone comes back and they make the playoffs as the 8th seed as opposed to the usual 1-5.
The Mavs could drop, and they will be losing Rondo, but they will have $22mil to work with this summer (they lose Rondo and Chandler =$26 mil), so they will just sign somebody and be back (unless they drop Carlisle).
Golden State- They will be there. They are $15 mil over the projected cap, so somebody will have to go, but will that somebody be enough to remove them from the top of the mountain?
Houston- Dwight will be healthy (if we are banking on health why can't they), so they will be there.
Clippers- They have to find a way to get Jordan back (who do they move), but they will be back.
Portland- If they stay healthy (everyone is counting on health not to come up snake eyes) they are back.
Memphis- If they can get Tyrus Thomas back, they could be the #1 seed, but they most certainly will be back in the playoffs (Thomas' health not withstanding).
OKC- Do they hire the next Steve Kerr, or the next Jason Kidd? Either way, if they are healthy, they are in.

---- Up and Comming---

PHX- Before trading everyone away at the deadline they were actually ahead of us for the 8th spot. Then they moved Dragic, Thomas, and others, and brought in the game changer, Marcus Thornton. They have the 8th most cap space, and have shown they can win with no "star" player. With all that cap space do they get the guy to put next to Bledsoe and the twins that will get them into the playoffs. Either way, Hornaceck is one heck of a coach.

Utah- The youngest team in the NBA, and also the 3rd finisher out of the 8th spot. They are young and dangerous. As soon as they moved on from Kanter they unearthed Gobert who has been the 2nd best center under 23 (depends on how you view Drummond).They will be healthy next year, and have the cap space to trade their draft pick and a player, and get somebody to team up with Gobert/Hayward/Burks/Favors. In spite of his teams age, injuries, and rebuilding, Snyder got them to finish 7 games behind us.

Kings- They finally have a coach for Boogie and Gay to try running off. They also have Ben McLemore. I wouldn't consider them much of a threat, but George Karl can make people do some weird stuff.


---The Cosmos---

Nuggets- Nice young team. Nice young team.
Lakers- Old Kobe, new lottery pick.
Wolves- Young all around, coach isn't sure if he is coming or going.

If Dallas loses Tyson Chandler then they're going no where. He's the only one on that team that plays any defense and none of their other players are getting better. They're gonna have to overpay to bring someone since they're not looked upon as a true contender.

Once Portland loses Aldridge, they're headed towards a nosedive. How are they "proven contenders"? It'll be those top 7 teams you have listed as contenders and the Pels, with Portland dropping into the lottery as LMA teams up with a TX team.

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Originally Posted by Writhe

Once Portland loses Aldridge, they're headed towards a nosedive. How are they "proven contenders"? It'll be those top 7 teams you have listed as contenders and the Pels, with Portland dropping into the lottery as LMA teams up with a TX team.

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I based being a "proven contender" off of them being in the playoffs for the past few years, much like I consider the Thunder to be contenders.

But you are right, if they lose LMA, he will most likely go to the Spurs or Mavs. Life won't get much easier for us, and if the Blazers drop, we are still fighting with everyone in that (proven contender) bracket as well as the Jazz and Phx.

I feel like this is starting to be a repeat of last offseason. Where everyone(well not everyone but most) started to get optimistic fever. Where i started to look silly for suggesting we might struggle to go beyond a 7 seed. Where everyone thought Memphis, Dallas, Portland Etc. were going to fall of a cliff and we were going to take this magical leap and anything less then suggesting the fourth seed was almost blasphemy.

I like the optimism, but everyone wants to assume the worst about our competitors and the best about us and frankly, that is an unrealistic position to take.

If Aldridge does leave it is going to be to a competitor. SA seems to be a likely landing spot given rumors and personal history. So maybe Portland falls but OKC is right there to pick up the slack. Utah will come on strong as well. Dallas won't stand idle with Cuban as owner and LAC I would be surprised if they didn't spend Balmer's money to get another piece. GSW will be back and better, Phoenix will have an offseason to gel with a very good coach, Memphis will be Memphis, Rockets will be healthy and likely add a piece or two(one with our pick). Then you have the X factor of a team like the Kings and an all time great coach like Karl and the best center in the league with an offseason with him and likely Ty Lawson joining the squad if rumors pan out.

Tyrus Thomas? You're kidding right?

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Originally Posted by N.O.Bronco

I feel like this is starting to be a repeat of last offseason. Where everyone(well not everyone but most) started to get optimistic fever. Where i started to look silly for suggesting we might struggle to go beyond a 7 seed. Where everyone thought Memphis, Dallas, Portland Etc. were going to fall of a cliff and we were going to take this magical leap and anything less then suggesting the fourth seed was almost blasphemy.

I like the optimism, but everyone wants to assume the worst about our competitors and the best about us and frankly, that is an unrealistic position to take.

If Aldridge does leave it is going to be to a competitor. SA seems to be a likely landing spot given rumors and personal history. So maybe Portland falls but OKC is right there to pick up the slack. Utah will come on strong as well. Dallas won't stand idle with Cuban as owner and LAC I would be surprised if they didn't spend Balmer's money to get another piece. GSW will be back and better, Phoenix will have an offseason to gel with a very good coach, Memphis will be Memphis, Rockets will be healthy and likely add a piece or two(one with our pick). Then you have the X factor of a team like the Kings and an all time great coach like Karl and the best center in the league with an offseason with him and likely Ty Lawson joining the squad if rumors pan out.

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This Pelicans team has improved every year. Why does it seem like you dismiss this as an expectation for next year? What's unrealistic is your assumption that we won't be a better team next season.

I expect us to be a playoff team that no one wants to face because of AD. Whether we're the 8th seed or any better than a 4th seed depends on our health and what happens this offseason with our team and our competition.

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Originally Posted by NMThreeMVP

This Pelicans team has improved every year. Why does it seem like you dismiss this as an expectation for next year? What's unrealistic is your assumption that we won't be a better team next season.

I expect us to be a playoff team that no one wants to face because of AD. Whether we're the 8th seed or any better than a 4th seed depends on our health and what happens this offseason with our team and our competition.

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Nowhere did I say we won't be better.

I didn't read NO Bronco say we wouldn't get better, I just read that we can't expect to be the only team that will get better.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by N.O.Bronco

Nowhere did I say we won't be better.

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You think I'm reading your comments carefully at 7am on a Sunday morning?!... Nope. :)

I see us passing Dallas and Portland. OKC will rise back near the top if healthy.

Here are my WC predictions for next year.

1. GSW
2. LAC
3. OKC
4. Houston
5. New Orleans
6. Memphis
7. San Antonio
8. Utah
9. Portland
10. Dallas
11. Minnesota
Who cares about the rest

Pretty hard to make assumptions on the Western Conference before the draft and FA.

Pretty much.

With LMA rumors swirling around SA, guys with contracts up etc. it is impossible to know what the landscape will be next season. LMA ends up in SA and they could become the new favorites if Duncan and Parker come back again.

It is also a mistake to forget about the Kings as well. An offseason for Karl to get acclimated, a lottery pick and rumors of a Ty Lawson acquisition push the Kings, along with the Jazz, as likely to be two surprise teams next season.

The one thing I am sure of is that betting the West will get easier is probably a fools wish.

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Originally Posted by joetzeng

Tyrus Thomas? You're kidding right?

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BWAHAHAHAHAHA!

Unless we think we're going for a title next year (I don't), we might as well hope that LaMarcus Aldridge goes to a team that was already going to be a contender. Better to make one team strong and take Portland out of the equation than to have two strong teams there.

Hopefully the east can steal a few players from the west. Mavs,Blazers and perhaps the Grizzlies will come down to earth next year. Hopefully we can get a fringe player from a west playoff team..

The Tyrus Thomas bit was more a joke (not very funny I take it). I had no idea his rights were even held by an NBA team.

Like I posted in the OP, this is more a question of, all things being equal, every team comes back healthy, new coaching changes are only occurring where expected, where do you see things going?

Man the West is stacked.

well didnt sound like a joke to me