I am going to blatantly violate whatever silly rule some New Orleans blogger laid down about not talking about where this is all headed until x date, because hey, I am not from New Orleans, we are nearly 1/3 of the way into the season(25 games down, 57 to go) and I really don't give much of a hoot what talking heads think anyways. So here we go:
Standings as of 12/7
Competitors continue to wobble along, with few really separating themselves. In each Conference there are 3 teams separating themselves from the pack (GSW, HOU, SAN in the West and BOS, CLE, TOR in the East), then 6 playoff competitors in the West (MIN, POR, DEN, UTH, NOP, OKC) for 5 spots, and perhaps 7 competitors in the East for their 5 spots.
West standings as of 12/7:
HOU 20-4
GSW 19-6
SAN 17-8 (+now Kawhi is back)
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MIN 15-11
POR 13-11
DEN 13-11
NOP 13-12
UTH 13-13
OKC 11-13
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LAL 9-15
LAC 8-15
PHX 9-18
MEM 8-16
SAC 7-17
DAL 7-18
Remaining 57 games
Using the rough tiers above, and similar tiers in the East (BOS, CLE, TOR = Tier 1, etc.), here is a breakdown of the Pelicans' remaining 57 games, by opponent tier and H/A:
vs Elite Opponents (HOU, GSW, SAN, BOS, CLE, TOR):
A HOU
A BOS
H HOU
A SAN
A SAN
H HOU
H BOS
A HOU
A CLE
A GSW
H SAN (last game of season, odds of Pop resting guys = 100%)
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4H + 7A
vs Playoff Contenders (MIN, POR, DEN, UTH, OKC, DET, MIL, WSH, IND, PHI, NYK, MIA):
A PHI
H MIL
A DEN
A WSH
A MIA
H NYK
A UTH
A MIN
H DET
H POR
A NYK
A MIN
A OKC
H UTH
H IND
A PHI
A DET
H MIA
A MIL
H WSH
H UTH
H POR
H OKC
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11H +12A
vs Lottery Teams (LAL, LAC, PHX, MEM, SAC, DAL, ORL, BKN, CHA, ATL, CHI):
H SAC
A ORL
H BKN
H DAL
A MEM
A ATL
H MEM
H CHI
A CHA
H LAC
H SAC
A BKN
H LAL
H PHX
A DAL
A LAC
A SAC
H CHA
H DAL
H LAL
H MEM
A PHX
A LAC
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13H + 10A
Necessary Records
Current 13-12 (6-6H 7-6A)
To match last year's 34-48: 21-36
To reach .500 41-41: 28-29
To reach 50 wins: 37-20
To match the franchise record 56 wins: 43-14
So, while a thousand little factors play in, who's healthy, who's hot, etc., you can start running broad calculations. For instance:
The Pels have relatively few games against elite opponent upcoming. 3 of their 4 vs. Golden State are done. They've played both vs. Toronto, Have played SAN and CLE once. But most of their 11 remaining games against elite opponents are on the road. So let's charitably say they steal 1 of the 7 games vs. elite opponents on their floors. And then that in the Smoothie center the Pels split their 4 remaining games vs. top opponents. So they go 3-8 in their remianing 11 games vs. the elite.
Then against their peers, they have 11 home games and 12 away games, so let's just say that is their record vs. their equals. 11-12
Finally though, they play a ton of their remaining games against the dregs, and most of them (13 of 23) at home. The Pels are 8-2 against under .500 teams, and those 2 losses came against Memphis and Orlando early in the year when Memphis and Orlando were playing winning ball. So I am calling for the Pels to win an overwhelming number of their games vs. the dregs the rest of the way.
Let's say they go 17-6 vs. the bad teams:
3-8 vs. elite
11-12 vs. playoff contenders
17-6 vs. lottery
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31-26 + 13-12 = 44-38
Let's say they do better still. 18-5 = 45-37. Whatever, those are playoff numbers.
Standings, Upcoming Schedule, and Yes, Playoff Positioning
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12-08-2017, 01:35 AMBricklayerStandings, Upcoming Schedule, and Yes, Playoff Positioning
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12-08-2017, 01:42 AMP_B_&_G
Nice analysis! We just need to get as healthy as possible and with Hill coming back it will hopefully bolster the defense a bit. Also, if we somehow manage to keep Jrue playing near his current level and get 90% of what AD and Cuz have thus far we will win a lot of games.
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12-08-2017, 03:11 AMMythrol
Really good work. Your analysis is right around where they are being projected by some outlets to finish as well. Right around the 45 wins mark.
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12-08-2017, 04:09 AMPelicanidae
The best thing about this analysis is that there's no optimism in it. Everything you say is completely plausible and doesn't assume any big upsets. A common flaw when a fan does their own analysis is the bias of hoping you pull off upsets, or will win every game in which you have an advantage on paper. Obviously you've not done that, and you've been realistic in your estimations.
Given all of that, the idea that 45 wins is totally possible is awesome, and maybe (don't shoot me) maybe we will get a couple of upsets too -
12-08-2017, 08:03 AMluckyman
Most good teams go on a hot streak at some point. They look like they are starting to play better and make shots. Especially Etwaun, Jrue, and Rondo.
Despite the bad coaching, hoping the 8-10 game win streak happens. -
12-08-2017, 08:28 AMMythrolThat's such a cop out. Our offense creates open looks for players but when they don't hit the shots it's Gentry's fault, when they do hit the shots it all the players.Quote:
Originally Posted by luckyman
Here's a new flash to everyone: Gentry has been fine this year and actually deserves credit for how he has handled the rotations and roster while at times having up to 6 players (over 1/3 of the team) and as many as 3 starters out due to injury. Even now we still have 2 starters out. Let's see what would happen to Denver or Minnesota and the coach crush Thibs if they lost 2/3 starters for a significant time. What about Portland or well hell, we've already seen what would happen to Memphis just losing Conley - now their coach is fired.
We've made it through an extremely difficult part of our schedule and still have a winning record. Is Gentry the best coach? No clearly not, but this whole mentality of the team doing it "despite" him is just stupid. -
12-08-2017, 08:38 AMluigi modeloI agree!Quote:
Originally Posted by Mythrol
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12-08-2017, 09:13 AMPelicanidaeSame. I don't love Gentry, sometimes be frustrates me, and he's no upper tier coach, but he's done very little seriously wrong this season. He's been entirely fine, and in some places he's even looked downright good.Quote:
Originally Posted by luigi modelo
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12-08-2017, 09:43 AMAusPelAnd, ever so slowly, the knocks on Dell start to fade..Quote:
Originally Posted by Pelicanidae
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12-08-2017, 10:08 AMluckymanI guess it's easier to notice and complain about the bad shot clock management at the end of quarters, the constant wasted possessions by players taking bad 3s or long jump shots, the consistently lazy passing the results in turnovers, the bad possessions out of time outs, the long stretches of bad offense, and extremely bad defensive rotations.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mythrol
I guess we wait to point all those consistently bad items out after a loss. I forgot they just beat Denver. Stupid me. -
12-08-2017, 10:30 AMMythrolBad shot clock management - that's a player issue!Quote:
Originally Posted by luckyman
Bad shot selection - that's a player issue!
Lazy passing - that's a player issue!
Bad possessions out of time out, are you complaining about the execution of the plays? - that's a player issue!
Long stretches of bad offense, because players are taking bad shots and not moving the ball around? - that's a player issue!
Bad defensive rotations - that's a player issue!
Every single issue you have named as something that was "coaching" isn't coaching at all. Unless you are going to sit here and make the argument that Gentry tells the players to let the shot clock run down on possessions or not hold for the final shot, take bad shots, make lazy passes, not rotate on defense, and not execute plays correctly out of time outs... Which he's not telling them any of that stuff... Then the people you should be upset with isn't the coaching staff and Gentry but the players for their lack of execute what they're being told to do.
Now you could try to make the argument that Gentry somehow should force players into making better decisions and better play, but that's a really hard thing to judge and evaluate a coach on and has a lot more to do with the actual players playing no matter who the coach is. It could also be the case that another coach and the players might be executing even worse in these areas.
I had this same argument during the Golden State game on Twitter with someone. You can hate Gentry all you want, but you cannot invent issues and reasons to hate him that are player issues not coaching issues. -
12-08-2017, 12:26 PMluckyman
NONE of those items are player issues. Those are things that get ironed out in hard, disciplined practice. Period. These are all repeat offenses. Dave Wesley on the broadcasts just gets flabbergasted by it every game.
Now you're just using hocus pocus logic. Too late in the season for that. -
12-08-2017, 04:10 PMMythrolThey ALL are.Quote:
Originally Posted by luckyman
Hard Disciplined practice? Monty was known for his discipline and our players had the same issues with him. The coach can show the players what to do but it's up to players to actually execute them. -
12-08-2017, 05:41 PMBricklayer
Alvin Gentry is a milksop. His teams are eternally soft and undisciplined and perhaps one single time in his long, very long, NBA career has he ever gotten the most out of his rosters (that being the 1 yr in Phoenix when he was just carrying over D'Antoni's roster and system).
That can all be admitted, indeed is hard to deny given his dozen years of coaching evidence, without then fast forwarding to "Alvin is destroying us!", when, again, we have evidence right before us that the team is not destroyed, that it's hanging in there.
It is essentially 100% proven at this point that Alvin Gentry is not a positive needle mover as a coach. But what is not absolutely 100% proven is this idea that he is a disastrous negative. Most of his teams over the years have had bad rosters with which he got bad results. The one time he had a good roster that was used to success, they continued that success with him. He certainly didn't make them win, but there's no real evidence he was holding them back. Now come the Pels, with two superstars and a load of wise old heads. He's not going to coach these guys up to heights they wouldn't reach themselves. But this constant refrain that he is holding them back seems shrill and a bit tonedeaf. What happened last year or the year before is not relevant. People have to let it go. This year there have been both good and bad traits displayed by this team. You can't task Gentry with the one without giving him credit for the other. -
12-08-2017, 06:12 PMMythrol
That's the thing. You say Gentry has no positive impact, yet last year Gentry's offense generated the 2nd most open looks of any offense in the entire league. The players made those open looks... At near worst in the league rates.
So people will blame Gentry because the offense was ranked low but who's fault was it really? His offense worked! The players didn't hit the shots.
Guess what? This year the Pelicans are on pace to still be top 5 in generating open shots. This is Gentry's offense and it's proven to work. Blaming Gentry for players being inconsistent is like blaming Gentry for players being injured. He can work with players, he can show them what to do, he can teach them every practice but at some point the players have to be blamed for their actions on the court.
It's easy to sit here and blame the coach, fans do it all the time, because that's an "easy fix". Just change the coach and everything will be better. But the truth is far more complex than that. Thibs is considered an amazing defensive coach... So why does Minnesota suck so terribly on defense this year? Did he suddenly forget how to coach defense? Anyone want to claim he's going too soft during practice on his players? HA! Or maybe the players running the system have the slightest impact on what happens.
Is Gentry on the level of Pop or a few of the other top level coaches? No. But, If we are going to sit here and judge Gentry on his performance so far this year - the guy has actually been pretty good especially considering the amount of injuries he's had to deal with.
If anyone wants to be angry or assign blame for our losses this year, much more should fall on the players or just the stupid injury luck we've had so far. I'd put Gentry below refs on the list of who's to blame. -
12-08-2017, 06:44 PMluckymanNo they didn't. If he called a timeout, you best believe a well executed bucket was coming next. They knew how to milk a shot clock and get the last shot. He always put AD or even Ryan Anderson in their best position to take advantage of mismatches. Something this team rarely does. As if there is no scouting.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mythrol
Monty had his issues, but one thing you saw year after year was a team that improved as the season went along. Especially that first CP3 team. Not this Jeckyll and Hyde we have now. -
12-08-2017, 07:09 PMMythrolYou can't see the improvement from Jrue, Moore, Miller, etc from the beginning of the season until now?Quote:
Originally Posted by luckyman