Draft Busts
-J. Felders, SI.com
Whaaa? Busts? In this league? Never!
Sorry, but nothing's perfect, and even with everything available these days, GMs still find ways to screw up, and players still find ways to disappoint. So I decided to take a look at the first 4 regular drafts since the 2000 NBA restart and find the biggest bust of each one.
To judge the "busts" in this league, I laid down one rule: The player must have been drafted in the Top 10.
2001 - Samuel Dalembert, #10 (Nuggets)
Sam was supposed to be a poor man's Tyson Chandler, a defensive and rebounding force. And to be fair, that's pretty much what he became. The problem comes in when you look at two big men who were drafted after him: Mehmet Okur (#11) and Eddy Curry (#16). While Dalembert outperformed both of them in their rookie season, he wasn't able to hold on to the starting center position in any of his subsequent seasons, bringing trades and decreased production to go along with decreased minutes. Meanwhile, both Okur and Curry caught fire in their sophmore seasons and never looked back.
Is It Too Late?
Probably. He still can't capture a starting job, currently backing up Nazr Mohammed in Indiana. He's now seen as purely bench defense & rebounding (when he's seen at all). Not too many good teams, or even bad ones, would start him at this point, and with the influx and emergence of better centers, it appears his small window has closed.
2002 - Manu Ginobili, #5 (Rockets)
I admit, this is a controversial one, especially with Nickloz "I've single-handedly changed the future of two franchises" Tshkitishvili sitting there at #10. But, look at what came after him. See anything? Yeah, I don't either, save Curtis Borchardt, and let's be honest, who really saw him coming? Even the Hornets were basically forced to use him. It's hard to be a bust when you're still better than what came after you, a luxury Manu wishes he had. Nene, Kirilenko, Caron, Jay Williams. Caron & Jay are the real standouts here, since Caron's emerged as a quality SG, and Jay stayed off the motorcycle and worked on his game, leading it to come full circle when he was openly a free-agent target for none other than the Houston Rockets. Meanwhile, Manu's done just enough to finish his rookie contract and re-up with the Rockets, but it's hard to ignore his startling drop in production, starting last season and continuing on to this one.
Is It Too Late?
Not really. In 2005 Manu made All-Defensive 2nd Team. As draft mate Andrei Kirilenko has shown, focusing on defense can really stunt your offensive output. If Manu repeats his All-Defensive nomination, then it's clear that he's simply become a defense-first player. Again, only the complete and utter absence of talent behind Nickloz puts Manu on this list. However, though he may not be a traditional bust ("disappointment" is a better term), it's rapidly becoming clear that he's completely misjudged what his team needs from him. So for Houston, yeah, they probably wish they'd have gone with someone else.
2003 - Boris Diaw, #5 (Magic)
This was another tough one, on two different counts. One, TJ Ford nearly put all 3 PGs taken ahead of him on this list (Kirk Hinrich, Luke Ridnour, and Mo Williams, btw). Two, I personally loved this guy coming out, and cheered the Magic for picking him. And then.........he started playing. And he hasn't really done anything of note yet, he's definitely a solid player, but looking at his stats leads you to wonder if he hit his ceiling in his not-really-impressive sophmore season. He's a role player, pure and simple. That's not his role, that's what he plays like, and that's not what you want at #5.......and to make things worse, look at the SF who got picked at #9: Josh Howard. Curry/Howard?
Is It Too Late?
Dunno. Unlike Sam, who's a clear bust, and Manu, who seems to have chosen a different path than what was originally intended, Boris has shown us who he is, and I'm not sure if he'll get any better. Again, Sam's a bust with no hope, Manu's just a disappointment, maybe even a minor one, but Boris seems to be a bust who has his niche....just not one befitting of a #5 pick.
2004 - JR Smith, #7 (Spurs)
I was around the Suns' owner when he got a text saying that the Spurs had selected JR Smith at #7. He nearly fainted. He later told me that their GM did faint. It was a baffling selection then, and it's still an odd one now, especially when looking at the guys drafted after him: Luol Deng, Josh Childress, Kevin Martin, Andris Biedrins, Jameer Nelson. And those are just the obvious ones. I forget what their frontcourt situation was at the time, but if it was like it is now, why not Biedrins? Having Kidd didn't stop him from drafting Rondo, and having Houston & JR didn't keep him from drafting Monta Ellis, so why not Nelson or even Devin Harris? Kevin seems to be a better pure scorer than JR, and Josh has become an underrated talent in Boston. JR's certainly a serviceable player, good enough. But he falls into the unfortunate situation of having to flirt with "bust" status the moment his name was called.
Is It Too Late?
For him not to be called a bust? Not as long as his draft mates continue to outshine him. Again, he's another form of bust entirely, a bust based more off of circumstance than actual on-court accomplishments. And well, he got traded. So he was a bust to the Spurs.
So that's it.....this goes to show you that there's more to good drafting than simply names and ratings. Even when it's all right there in front of you, things happen. Now y'all know I like feedback, so head on down to the comments section and comment!
Until next time..........
Sim League Draft Busts
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07-02-2013, 11:12 AMXist2inspireSim League Draft Busts
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07-02-2013, 11:36 AMTrayWithAnA
Good stuff!!!
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07-02-2013, 11:37 AMPelicans78
I'm depressed by this.
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07-02-2013, 11:42 AMConroy
Great read,
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07-02-2013, 11:48 AMXist2inspire:(Quote:
Originally Posted by Pelicans78
Sorry man. I have no idea why Manu suddenly decided to emulate Andrei (take a look at Andrei's career stats, it seems like the more he did defensively, the less he scored. His ppg dropped after his sophmore season). And seriously, had there even been a glimmer of actual talent after #10, NickT would've made it just for his infamous trade alone. -
07-02-2013, 11:48 AMNOLa.
Great read, I'm expecting AB on here by next season.
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07-02-2013, 11:52 AMEazy-P
JR Smith played good his first 2 years with my Spurs. I drafted him because he was supposed to be Houston's replacement. Houston was moved to SF but didn't work out for my liking.
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07-02-2013, 12:04 PMXist2inspireYeah, after I picked my jaw off the floor when you drafted him, I figured that was gonna be his role. I thought Houston was just gonna bleed you dry like he did the Knicks in real life, so I expected you to make the best of it by keeping him at his natural position and draft a SF, likely Luol after my original prediction of Josh Smith falling to you fell through. I still can't remember what your frontcourt situation was at that time though.................Quote:
Originally Posted by Eazy-P
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07-02-2013, 12:12 PMXist2inspireJury's still out on him. I don't think the '06 draft will have a bust, everybody knew that this was a 6-man draft as soon as the draft file came out. Nobody's gonna knock you for picking him, and even if someone comes out of nowhere (the "Borchardt Effect"), AB is just like NickT: Disappointing, but wholly justifiable. Seriously, who else were you gonna pick that high?Quote:
Originally Posted by NOLa.
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07-02-2013, 12:21 PMEazy-PJosh Smith or Okafor were the guys I wanted but knew it was a long shot. Okafor was picked right before I picked Smith so I just went with plan B which was Houston at SF and picking Smith. Ellis was BPA.Quote:
Originally Posted by Xist2inspire
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07-02-2013, 12:23 PMcoltsguy510
I knew it was gonna be Diaw.:(
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07-02-2013, 12:54 PMXist2inspireDunno what happened with him man, I really thought he'd blossom as a starter, especially after that promising rookie season. You of all GMs should know how high I was on him. ;)Quote:
Originally Posted by coltsguy510
He's a very good piece/backup to have around, but the star potential just doesn't seem to be there. -
07-02-2013, 01:08 PMcoltsguy510The annoying thing is, I have been like one player out of the elite prospects in almost every draft except the Iggy one.Quote:
Originally Posted by Xist2inspire
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07-02-2013, 01:52 PMPelicans78I think Al Jefferson is a big reason why Manu doesn't score as well. It seems every since Jefferson got a bigger role in the offense, Manu's scoring went down.Quote:
Originally Posted by Xist2inspire
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07-02-2013, 02:27 PMAD23forMVP
Salmons
Sent from my ADR6300 using Tapatalk 2 -
07-02-2013, 03:09 PMcoltsguy510?Quote:
Originally Posted by AD23forMVP
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07-02-2013, 03:32 PMXist2inspireDrafted too low, commish. I restricted it to top 10 picks only, Salmons was drafted at #15.Quote:
Originally Posted by AD23forMVP
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07-02-2013, 03:38 PMXist2inspireThat's probably got a good bit to do with it as well, Tray was talking about something similar going on between Yao & K-Mart on the podcast.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pelicans78
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07-02-2013, 03:44 PMPelicans78I was thinking moving Jefferson to the bench would give Manu more touches, but he's gotten worse this season. Wonder if he's just individually bad now or if its a gameplan thing.Quote:
Originally Posted by Xist2inspire
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07-02-2013, 03:51 PMXist2inspireI have a similar issue with Devin (who would've made the list had I drafted him in the top 10). He doesn't seem to respond well to being a backup, but if that's the case, then he really needs to step up and finally beat Jameer in training camp, which he's never done. I really hope that he's not a "start me or else" kind of guy, otherwise that puts me in a bad spot.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pelicans78
I may have to pick a sim before the trade deadline to start him and see if that wakes him up.