Defensive expectations

Sorry if this is too long.

I was thinking while watching Anthony Davis wreck Slovenia the other day, I've been tempering my expectations for how good I think this team can be on defense. But in terms of defensive talent, there are very few teams who have 3 players who should be as impactful individually as Asik, Holiday, and Davis.

Omer Asik has been an impact defensive player as long as he has been in the league, and the numbers have borne that out. The units he helped to anchor, primarily with Taj Gibson in Chicago, were death to opposing offenses, including a DRTG of 97 in 2010-11, and a ridiculous 92.9 in 11-12 (without him, that dropped to a still-good 100.6.) He then went to Houston, and brought a group with one defensive talent (Patrick Beverly who didn't play much) and several poor defenders to respectability. Without him, opposing offenses scored 110 points per 100 possessions, a sub-Pelicans total; with him, it dropped to a respectable 104. The player he reminds me the most of on that end is Marc Gasol as he's a massive human being who is equally adept at defending the post and using his tremendous sense of positioning, moving his feet, and help defense to keep people out of the paint. Even as a generally sulking player last year with limited burn in the regular season, he made a difference in the playoffs as once he was put on LaMarcus Alridge, he become much less effective, and that change helped to make that playoff series close when Houston was previously being blown out. His rebounding will also be a huge difference for our defense; he has been one of the two or three best defensive rebounders in the NBA, and limiting offensive rebounds, and thus limiting possesions, is something we've struggled with. ICYMI, this is a terrific pictorial breakdown of his defense:
http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2013/10/...ouston-rockets
I especially recommend watching the second video on there. His understanding of defensive positioning, and how to use his body to make things awkward for offensive players is remarkable. He recovers remarkably well for a man of his size, and gives us a legitimate center, for the first time since Emeka Okafor in Monty's first year, who can credibly swarm the pick and roll to the three point line, then recover and make the correct rotations to force low percentage shots. He also gives us a quality rim defender for when teams put ADs man into the pick and roll, something we have sorely lacked. If there was one obtainable player who could single-handedly improve us from a poor defense to an average defense, he was it.

Jrue Holiday has also been a consistent plus defender who passes the eye test, is equally as good at playing up on opposing ballhandlers and playing off ball defense (see him here completely denying Ray Allen in the playoffs when Boston was running motions to free him up). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9loWVYEaKkE. He plays well through screens has the size and length to credibly switch onto bigger defenders. Defensive statistics are wonky, but one of the better regarded is dRAPM, where he is tied for 5th with George Hill at 1.7 behind Eric Bledsoe (+3.2), Patrick Beverly (+2.5), and Avery Bradley (+2.5). As big as the upgrade from Smith, Stiemsma and Aijinca to Asik should be, the upgrade from Brian Roberts to Jrue Holday is about as big as you can make at that position. Per the eye test, Roberts is among the worst NBA defenders I've seen. He's very small, lacks length, is disinterested off ball, and lacks lateral quickness to stay in front of players. He's a guy you need to hide, and over the course of last year, we played lots of guys we needed to hide, and didn't have a scheme or players who could do that. Jrue Holiday gives you a player who can handle primary ballhandlers at the 1 or 2, switch P&R, and hide Eric Gordon on the weaker of the 2 backcourt players.

Anthony Davis will undoubtedly determine where this defense finishes next year. His counting statistics have been tremendous on that side of the ball, his advanced stats have been underwhelming to terrible. With that said, advanced stats are very limited on defense. He's been asked to do a lot, in a really difficult scheme for big men, as a very young player. But even as the individual big plays (generating a large number of blocked shots, deflections, and steals while fouling at a low rate) have been there, it just hasn't translated to team success. Part of that is that, whether this is Davis' fault or not, we have had a ton of blown rotations. With that said, his play with team USA has been very encouraging. His rotations have been on point, he essentially erases possessions. They've used a scheme where they alternate swarming (e.g. attacking with the big man and recovering) and icing the pick and roll (dropping the big man to catch the pick and roll), and that's a tactic the Pelicans should use. Too often, they've been able to negate AD by putting him in the P&R, leaving us with no quality rim defenders behind the play. If we play more conservatively in the P&R, particularly with Ryan Anderson on the floor with Davis, I think we'd to rotate less to help, we'd foul less, and we'd allow fewer wide open shots.

Regardless, AD is a special defensive player, and we're seeing that in these USAB games. His combination of length, mobility, and coordination is beyond rare. His wingspan is long for the NBA, yes, but guys like Rudy Gobert are even longer. But he plays with the longest functional wingspan I've ever seen, and combines that with being one of the faster players in the league. I'll never forget the play where he came from being out of the frame to block a transition three from Gordon Hayward last year. He was so shocked. I forget who said it, but it was like someone had thrown a 13 foot ladder at him. And he's good for 1-2 plays a game that no other guy in the league can make. There needs to be a point where his obvious talent translates into tangible defensive success, and he has the players around him for that to be this year.

The point of this is that Monty Williams has enviable weapons at his disposal on the defensive end of the floor. You don't need all-NBA defenders at every position on the floor to field a good defense, and in fact the majority of good defenses have employed players widely considered to be poor defenders. The Chicago Bulls last year employed Carlos Boozer and DJ Augustin as starting players on their way to the second best defensive rating in basketball. The Bobcats built the 6th best defense last year essentially around Al Jefferson and a couple of capable wing defenders. The Spurs have been hiding Tony Parker for years. And in the class of average defenses, both the Twolves, Wizards, Suns, Magic, and Blazers built reasonably competent defenses with only 1-2 plus defenders each. My expectations are a defense in the top ten, or at the very worst league average. If we can't make that happen with the talent on hand, barring a string of injuries like last year, I think we need to seriously reconsider our coaching direction. What do y'all expect on defense this year?

I think having Asik will help tremendously with Monty's current scheme of aggressive hedging. While I am a huge proponent of icing the pick and and rolls, there are certain players -Curry, Lillard, etc who are extremely adept at shooting off the screen. This is why Monty has our bigs hedge so hard. In theory, we can mimic the Pacers' defensive scheme. They chase people off the three point line and funnel them into Hibbert. Hedging hard should deter the three point shot. And knowing you have AD and Asik as help should allow our players to be more honest with their man around the perimeter. The goal should be to force the opponents to choose between driving on Asik or AD, or shooting a midrange shot. If we can accomplish that, I think we should be a top 10 defense next year no doubt.

I don't know what schemes we will be running or what, but I would be very disappointed if our defense wasn't at least slightly above average (12-15th).

Between Asik, Davis and Holiday, I would be disappointed if we weren't in the top 10 honestly. I know that's a big jump, but we have the personnel to do it.

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Originally Posted by saintsinNO

Between Asik, Davis and Holiday, I would be disappointed if we weren't in the top 10 honestly. I know that's a big jump, but we have the personnel to do it.

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I'm just not as high on Davis's defense this coming season as most people, I guess. He has all the potential in the world, but his inexperience shows. Last year, he was an average defender, at best.

When he is in position, he's awesome! He... just isn't in the right position a lot of the time. It should fix itself as he plays more and more, though.

With Jrue, Davis, Asik and even Gordon to an extent with a coach that was hired for his supposed defensive prowess. Defense in which our coach prefers to build his roster around and finally has the parts he wants down low. I think if we aren't in the top ten in the league that it will be a very disappointing season.

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Originally Posted by Kibner

I'm just not as high on Davis's defense this coming season as most people, I guess. He has all the potential in the world, but his inexperience shows. Last year, he was an average defender, at best.

When he is in position, he's awesome! He... just isn't in the right position a lot of the time. It should fix itself as he plays more and more, though.

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I think with a true big to compliment him Davis should flourish in his PF/C role until he finally gets enough weight and experience on him to bang with the true bigs of the league. Clearly defense will take a hit when the lineup features Davis and Anderson without Asik but thats a given.

Asik and Davis will likely only be on the floor about 18 minutes per game. So even if that unit is elite, all the other units have to be good to very good to be a top 10 defense.

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Originally Posted by Above the Rim

Asik and Davis will likely only be on the floor about 18 minutes per game. So even if that unit is elite, all the other units have to be good to very good to be a top 10 defense.

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But Davis will still see about 36 mpg and Asik will still see about 30 mpg. The other units will be going up against opposing benches.

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Originally Posted by Kumar

But Davis will still see about 36 mpg and Asik will still see about 30 mpg. The other units will be going up against opposing benches.

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And units with just Davis on it last year were terrible, as were other non-Davis units going up against reserves.

The 18 mins Davis and Asik are on should be great. The units with Davis and Ryno should be bad defensively. The Asik-Ryno unit will be below avg IMO.

You look at our team before injuries and it was bad defensively, even with AD and Jrue. You are basically adding 30 minutes of Asik to that team. In the 18 mins he is with Davis, you go from bad to great. In the 12 without Davis, you probably go from terrible to below average.

But this is assuming AD and all our players remain constant. With another year under the belt, there is bound to be systematic improvement if not individual. And AD should see an even better understanding of principles. You can already tell by watching him in team USA that his understanding of positioning against the pick and roll has improved. Sure that may be a product of the system, but it's evidence that a system exists that AD grasps and is effective in. This last part may be too much to hope for, but there is always a chance Monty picks up some tricks from the ever telling Thibs and the experienced coach K.

That is very fair. Though I will say that terrible to average is a HUGE leap.

Would we give another team that is not our favorite this big of a benefit of a doubt? All I know is I have past data that says they are terrible I have no data that says they are good or average. When they show me that, I will accept it. But I can't just assume it right now.

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Originally Posted by Above the Rim

That is very fair. Though I will say that terrible to average is a HUGE leap.

Would we give another team that is not our favorite this big of a benefit of a doubt? All I know is I have past data that says they are terrible I have no data that says they are good or average. When they show me that, I will accept it. But I can't just assume it right now.

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I give you that we may be looking through thing with homer glasses. But Portland went from 26th in DRTG to 16th by effectively replacing JJ Hickson with Robin Lopez. Their bench was still horrible, but they went from terrible to average by replacing a bad defender with a plus one. What do you get when you replace a bad defender (Stiemsma) with an elite one? Rolo only played 31.7 MPG, but the effect was profound. I think we can make a similar leap, seeing as we have a more mature AD and Jrue guarding the point of attack.

What I can't explain is how Charlotte went from 30th to 5th while ADDING Al Jefferson. Clifford is a magical being.

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Originally Posted by Kumar

I give you that we may be looking through thing with homer glasses. But Portland went from 26th in DRTG to 16th by effectively replacing JJ Hickson with Robin Lopez. Their bench was still horrible, but they went from terrible to average by replacing a bad defender with a plus one. What do you get when you replace a bad defender (Stiemsma) with an elite one? Rolo only played 31.7 MPG, but the effect was profound. I think we can make a similar leap, seeing as we have a more mature AD and Jrue guarding the point of attack.

What I can't explain is how Charlotte went from 30th to 5th while ADDING Al Jefferson. Clifford is a magical being.

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No doubt it is possible. I am just not buying yet that it is probable or likely. I think we will have some great units - specifically ones with Jrue, AD, and Asik, but I also expect some nightmare units on that end

Also, I want to add to that. The lineup that saw the most minutes together was Holiday-Gordon-Aminu-Davis-Smith - clocking in just over 200 minutes played. They put up a DRTG of 102 which would have been a top 5 defense in the league last year. For perspective on how bad our injuries were, the Portland Starting lineup logged 1372 minutes together- a whole 1172 minutes more. Their DRTG was 106.


I think there is plenty of hope for us to be a top 10 team should everyone stay healthy.

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Originally Posted by Above the Rim

No doubt it is possible. I am just not buying yet that it is probable or likely. I think we will have some great units - specifically ones with Jrue, AD, and Asik, but I also expect some nightmare units on that end

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I don't disagree with you, but that is a common theme with every team. The main point is how many minutes the starting lineup plays vs the next closest and so on. The next closest Portland Lineup saw 211 minutes together. Then it drops significantly after that.

Look at Indiana - the league's best defense. Their starters played 1467 minutes together. Next closest played 185. Did they trot out Horrible defensive lineups? Sure. But they only played 90 or 80 or 60 minutes total.

Golden State is perhaps a better example. Their starters only played about 817 minutes together, putting up a DRTG of 99 - elite. But their 2nd most played lineup at 317 min put up a 1.05 - average, and 3rd most a 118 - god awful.

In fact out of their 5 most used lineups 3 were average or worse and 2 were elite. But their most used lineup still was more minutes than the next 4 combined.

The point I am getting at is if we can get our starters to put up a very good DRTG and play close to 1000 minutes together - we are in good hands.

I want to believe, don't get me wrong. But a top 10 defense depends on Asik, AD, and Jrue all playing at least 75 games together and guys like Anderson and Gordon not being terrible on that end. Again, very possible. But I won't assume it. I need to see it first. If it happens, I will be happy to say I was wrong. So, so happy.

Yeah it all comes down to healthy IMO

don't forget about russ smith. he's a pit bull on d

Love the post as always. Interesting to see you prefer playing the P/R soft. Hedging seems like high risk high reward. I agree that the personnel is there for a good defense. I strongly value patience and giving players time to mesh but if we are healthy this year and have a poor defense I think Monty needs to take a look at reshaping his system.

I think aggressively hedging has its place and can be a defensive calling card for the right team, like it was for the Heat from 2011-2013, the Celtics under Thibodeau, or the Bulls from 2011-2013 under Thibodeau. It can destroy teams with limited playmaking abilities who can't make extra passes to break down the defense. If you have wing defenders and big men with the ability to deflect balls, it generates turnovers and easy transition opportunities where you're in front of the defense. But on the back end, it requires your defensive rotations to be quick and on point, and if there are missed assignments (either not picking up guys or over-helping), you're going to give up open perimeter shots. It requires more communication, quicker decision making, and a higher basketball IQ. And for that reason, it is a higher risk/higher reward system. I think Davis/Asik makes it a viable option for us, as there will always be an excellent rim protector behind the play, but it's just harder. It's worked best for teams that have employed a ton of veteran guys who tend to be smarter players and pick up defense quicker. Maybe having some of these guys play in the system for two years (Davis, Anderson, Gordon, Rivers, Miller, Asik played in a close-to-identical scheme for two years), and Holiday and Tyreke in the system for 1 year will help.

The other thing that has changed is that teams have adjusted and better teams figured out how to play swarm-heavy teams with ball movement and swinging the ball around the perimeter. Even Thibodeau's Bulls have dialed down the swarming and vary how the play the P&R. Of the top 10 teams in defensive efficiency, the majority don't hard hedge much. I think it's an excellent weapon to be able to have, especially because it's becoming rarer, and Anthony Davis is theoretically the perfect big for it. But the execution so far has left much to be desired.