Kevin Pelton: Which young PGs are best trade targets

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/1...rd-career-arcs

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"Which of the young PGs who've failed to live up to draft-day expectations would you take a flier on: Elfrid Payton, D'Angelo Russell or Emmanuel Mudiay? In a 'loaded' PG draft class, given what we've seen thus far and considering contract statuses, where would you slot these three in a ranking of summer acquisition targets?"

-- Jonathan Dennis

Given that all three would fall into the tall group of point guards that tends to peak later, I'd be interested in any of them if their current teams were ready to move on.

If we're ranking, I'd start with Russell, who has two years remaining on his rookie contract and has played reasonably well given he's just 21. When I think about players who could benefit from developing consistent range on pull-up 3-pointers along the lines of the All-Star point guards I discussed last week, Russell is at the top of the list. He shot 38.7 percent on pull-up 3s after the break last season, per NBA.com/Stats, and while that's probably not sustainable, even making that shot at a 35 percent clip would make Russell much tougher to guard in the pick-and-roll.

I've made a substantial investment in beachfront property on Elfrid Payton Peninsula, so it's no secret I'm a believer. Payton was also better after the All-Star break with superior floor spacing, posting five triple-doubles and averaging 13.5 points, 8.4 assists and 7.0 rebounds per game with a league-average true shooting percentage (.556). The main reason Payton is behind Russell on my list is because he's going into the last year of his rookie contract and will soon get expensive.

I'm a bit more skeptical Mudiay will get there given how inefficient he has been. He's rated worse than replacement level during his first two seasons. Still, I am intrigued by how effective Mudiay becomes alongside Nikola Jokic and a power forward (i.e. not Jusuf Nurkic) -- something Adam Mares of DenverStiffs.com has highlighted. In 580 minutes with such lineups, per NBAwowy.com, Mudiay posted .545 true shooting and Denver averaged a 124.0 offensive rating -- better than the Nuggets' 120.8 offensive rating with Jameer Nelson in such lineups. Now, those 580 minutes shouldn't count more than the other 2,900 or so Mudiay has played, but they give me some hope there's a quality NBA point guard here.

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Russell intrigues me. Seems like a pretty good fit next to Jrue. I wonder what sort of package would suffice. Certainly, a 2018 1st rounder is just the start?

I'd rank them in this same order, and put Russell several tiers above the other 2 for us because of his shooting. A 1st round pick and taking one of those terrible contracts would be more than enough to get it done, but I wouldn't take one of those contracts unless we also found a way to ditch Asik in a separate deal or by stretching him.

Payron is intriguing, but I think he gives us the same challenges that we struggled to overcome with Tim Frazier, i.e. not being a threat from the 3.

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Originally Posted by NMThreeMVP

I'd rank them in this same order, and put Russell several tiers above the other 2 for us because of his shooting. A 1st round pick and taking one of those terrible contracts would be more than enough to get it done, but I wouldn't take one of those contracts unless we also found a way to ditch Asik in a separate deal or by stretching him.

Payron is intriguing, but I think he gives us the same challenges that we struggled to overcome with Tim Frazier, i.e. not being a threat from the 3.

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Doubt it would work, but something like Russell + Deng for Asik + 2018 1st rounder would be highly ideal if those were the trade parameters. We take on an extra year of a bad contract for a player we can actually use in our rotation.

Agree with your assesment on Payton too. I like him in a vaccum, but his fit is questionable given his lack of perimeter shooting.

Payton could be a triple double machine if he has shooters around him. He rebounds, assist, and drives to the hoop well enough just needs to improve his 3pt shot. We are talking about a player that's getting better. We couldn't get a player that puts up stats now or he'd cost way to much. Payton and Jrue on the court could make for a great rebounding team.

Out of the 3 players I will choose Mudiay.

I suggest we make a move on draft day for Evans out of OSU.
Dump Q Tip, Asik and make the deal Dell.
It's hard to rehab a guy that has been thrown to the curb by another club.

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Originally Posted by PelsFan2313

Doubt it would work, but something like Russell + Deng for Asik + 2018 1st rounder would be highly ideal if those were the trade parameters. We take on an extra year of a bad contract for a player we can actually use in our rotation.

Agree with your assesment on Payton too. I like him in a vaccum, but his fit is questionable given his lack of perimeter shooting.

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It's not just a bad contract. It's 7 million a year bad. Why take an over the hill player, add an extra year & be stuck with an 18,000,000 dollar price tag? I'd rather Stretch Asik & move on. Deng contract is absolutely awful.

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Originally Posted by Tinman

It's not just a bad contract. It's 7 million a year bad. Why take an over the hill player, add an extra year & be stuck with an 18,000,000 dollar price tag? I'd rather Stretch Asik & move on. Deng contract is absolutely awful.

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Because the Lakers aren't going to just give away an asset without getting something back of equal or better value? I'm well aware of how bad Deng's contract is. The appeal is getting Russell (and getting rid of Asik). The price is taking Deng (and giving up a 1st). And if his contract becomes really detrimental down the road, you can stretch Deng too.

I seriously doubt they go after a young PG. They are on the clock with their 2 superstars and don't have time for growing pains.

I'd love to add Russell. He's clearly the best option of those three, with Mudiay being the worst.

You can't go into a must not fail season with an unproven, and indeed boardline bust level young PG at the helm. Just can't.

Worst comes to worst just sign Darren Collison to something reasonable and let him caretaker the spot until you get your guy eventually. He's certainly nothing special, but he knows how to play, knows New Orleans, knows Boogie. Would patch the hole for a spell. Then if you thought you could get a guy like Payton in here to be the defensive minded backup, well that could be interesting. But I suspect it would cost too many assets given other needs. I really think the team would be better off if it wasn't absolutely relying on Tim Frazier for major minutes, but he does have the salient advantages of being here already and being cheap. When you have cap issues and a lot of holes to fill maybe that's enough.

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Originally Posted by Bricklayer

You can't go into a must not fail season with an unproven, and indeed boardline bust level young PG at the helm. Just can't.

Worst comes to worst just sign Darren Collison to something reasonable and let him caretaker the spot until you get your guy eventually. He's certainly nothing special, but he knows how to play, knows New Orleans, knows Boogie. Would patch the hole for a spell. Then if you thought you could get a guy like Payton in here to be the defensive minded backup, well that could be interesting. But I suspect it would cost too many assets given other needs. I really think the team would be better off if it wasn't absolutely relying on Tim Frazier for major minutes, but he does have the salient advantages of being here already and being cheap. When you have cap issues and a lot of holes to fill maybe that's enough.

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I think this overthinks it. IMO, a guy like Russell not only clearly has more potential than Collison, but is as good or the better player already. People hold the shenanigans of his rookie year against him, but he was a 19 year old kid playing for the Los Angeles Lakers. His immaturity should have been expected in that environment. But he's also a 6'5" PG. Guys with his size and skill don't grow on trees and he improved from rookie year to sophomore season. I doubt the Lakers would trade him, to be honest. A Ball/Russell backcourt is something you build on. But he's exactly the kind of guard the Pelicans could use, especially because of his rookie scale salary.

If the Pelicans want to add wing depth and a guard this offseason, I could see them talking themselves into $23m for Deng and Russelll. You're underpaying Russell, and you're overpaying Deng, but you're probably paying market value for the pair. Russell would easily pull $18m minimum if he were free agent, and Deng at $5m would be reasonable as a Dante replacement.

2019-20 season is the year you worry about when Russell has to be paid and Deng is still on the books, but we've seen Benson organization push money into future years on the cap with Saints and Loomis dealing with the problem later. That's what this would be.

So I think Pels should see if there is a deal to be done, but I don't know if I'd do it if I was the Lakers. I definitely wouldn't take bask Asik if I'm the Lakers. I don't think Polinka lets Magic get into a bad deal, but if you're the Pels you have to at least try them because Russell would be a great fit with Boogie and AD, and Deng could replace Dante and provide a really strong veteran voice in a locker room with zero playoff winning experience.

I'm going to hold out for the option that people aren't even considering because it's too improbable to consider. Like somehow ending up with Dennis Smith Jr (guy I'm crazy about, low key).

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Originally Posted by Buckwheat

I suggest we make a move on draft day for Evans out of OSU.
Dump Q Tip, Asik and make the deal Dell.
It's hard to rehab a guy that has been thrown to the curb by another club.

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I agree. Jawun Evans could be our steal.

I would like Elfrid though

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Originally Posted by Eman5805

I'm going to hold out for the option that people aren't even considering because it's too improbable to consider. Like somehow ending up with Dennis Smith Jr (guy I'm crazy about, low key).

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Holy **** champ hacked Eman's account.

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Originally Posted by Nola3

Holy **** champ hacked Eman's account.

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Crap mine too cause I like Dennis Smith. Jawun Evans is a nice late option and would be awesome behind Jrue and Elfrid (who is my low key crazy, probably cause I'm a Ragin Cajun from Lafayette).

Jrue, Elfrid, Evans at PG would be a nice rotation.

Kobi Simmons looks like a lesser version of Jrue, he'd be nice to develop as well.

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Originally Posted by tdcreator

Crap mine too cause I like Dennis Smith. Jawun Evans is a nice late option and would be awesome behind Jrue and Elfrid (who is my low key crazy, probably cause I'm a Ragin Cajun from Lafayette).

Jrue, Elfrid, Evans at PG would be a nice rotation.

Kobi Simmons looks like a lesser version of Jrue, he'd be nice to develop as well.

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Haha nah I was just messing with him because of the near-impossibility of getting Smith. I really like him too and I think he's being projected far lower than he should be, but I see pretty much no scenario (outside of trading AD) where we get him.

Evans also looks perfect out of college but I do worry about how long it would take him to adjust to NBA size and speed.

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Originally Posted by Nola3

Holy **** champ hacked Eman's account.

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Nah. I've always had a weakness to athletic freaks. But he's got a bit more to his game. That's enough for what we need.